The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Missouri voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Missouri a state Trump would win, or a red state. Formerly a bellwether state, Missouri has trended towards the Republican Party in recent years and since the late 2010s has been considered a GOP stronghold at both the federal and state levels.
As he did in the previous two presidential elections, Republican Donald Trump easily won Missouri in 2024, this time by an 18.4% margin. This was 0.1% less than the 2016 margin.
Primary elections Republican caucuses
The Missouri Republican caucuses was held on March 2, 2024, alongside the Republican caucuses in Idaho and Michigan.
Democratic primary
The Missouri Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the Democratic primary in Louisiana.
General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report December 19, 2023 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 29, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill December 14, 2023 CNalysis December 30, 2023 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist June 12, 2024538 October 18, 2024RCP June 26, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024
Polling Donald J. Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald J.Trump KamalaHarris Other /UndecidedResearch Co.November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%54%39%7%ActiVoteOctober 6–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%–ActiVoteSeptember 8 – October 10, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%57%43%–Emerson CollegeSeptember 12–13, 2024850 (LV)± 3.3%53%43%4%55%43%2%Change Research (D)September 11–13, 20241,237 (RV)± 3.1%50%41%9%GQR (D)September 6–12, 2024645 (LV)± 3.9%55%44%1% August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald J. Trump. August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National ConventionActiVoteJuly 25 – August 22, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%59%41%–YouGov/Saint Louis UniversityAugust 8–16, 2024900 (LV)± 3.8%54%41%5%
Donald J. Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald J.Trump KamalaHarris CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedRemington Research Group (R)/Missouri ScoutOctober 28–29, 2024721 (LV)± 3.6%54%40%–1%1%4%
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald J.Trump JoeBiden Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeJune 17–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%53%40%7%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024509 (LV)–49%43%8%Emerson CollegeJanuary 23–28, 20241,830 (RV)± 2.2%49%32%19%Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri ScoutOctober 10–11, 2023806 (RV)± 3.6%52%39%9%SurveyUSAOctober 27 – November 1, 2022991 (RV)± 3.7%52%34%14%Emerson CollegeOctober 26–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%53%37%9%Emerson CollegeSeptember 23–27, 20221,160 (LV)± 2.8%51%37%12%SurveyUSASeptember 14–18, 2022830 (RV)± 3.9%52%35%13%SurveyUSAJuly 24–27, 20221,981 (RV)± 2.7%51%35%14%SurveyUSAMay 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%50%35%15%Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri ScoutSeptember 18–20, 20211,014 (LV) ± 2.9%55%36%9%Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri ScoutApril 21–22, 2021933 (LV) ± 3.0%53%38%9%
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald J.Trump JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeJune 17–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%35%7%1%1%6%
Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald J.Trump RobertKennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024509 (LV)–45%42%13%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Robert F.Kennedy Jr. JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024509 (LV)–51%36%13%
Results
By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanKamala HarrisDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adair6,77166.13%3,33432.56%1341.31%3,43733.57%10,239Andrew7,40775.22%2,31223.48%1281.30%5,09551.74%9,847Atchison2,15279.32%52919.50%321.18%1,62359.82%2,713Audrain7,69973.16%2,68825.54%1361.29%5,01147.62%10,523Barry13,13881.27%2,87317.77%1540.95%10,26563.50%16,165Barton5,15985.77%82013.63%360.60%4,33972.14%6,015Bates6,70280.32%1,56318.73%790.95%5,13961.59%8,344Benton8,52679.17%2,16620.11%770.72%6,36059.06%10,769Bollinger5,36587.08%75612.27%400.65%4,60974.81%6,161Boone39,67344.03%48,45253.77%1,9852.20%-8,779-9.74%90,110Buchanan22,60663.25%12,59835.25%5391.51%10,00828.00%35,743Butler14,54981.46%3,16017.69%1510.85%11,38963.77%17,860Caldwell3,77180.18%88818.88%440.94%2,88361.30%4,703Callaway15,20670.87%5,92627.62%3231.51%9,28043.25%21,455Camden19,59776.71%5,72422.40%2270.89%13,87354.30%25,548Cape Girardeau29,31572.65%10,56126.17%4771.18%18,75446.47%40,353Carroll3,70881.89%78917.42%310.68%2,91964.47%4,528Carter2,48886.93%36412.72%100.35%2,12474.21%2,862Cass38,79265.36%19,75333.28%8041.35%19,03932.08%59,349Cedar6,06484.36%1,06014.75%640.89%5,00469.62%7,188Chariton3,17977.75%87521.40%350.86%2,30456.35%4,089Christian38,37975.57%11,85023.33%5601.10%26,52952.23%50,789Clark2,67980.38%62818.84%260.78%2,05161.54%3,333Clay67,68852.00%60,34546.36%2,1271.63%7,3435.64%130,160Clinton8,23573.33%2,85525.42%1401.25%5,38047.91%11,230Cole26,68666.46%12,87432.06%5921.47%13,81234.40%40,152Cooper6,39372.36%2,34726.56%951.08%4,04645.80%8,835Crawford8,74280.73%2,00718.53%800.74%6,73562.19%10,829Dade3,48083.13%67116.03%350.84%2,80967.10%4,186Dallas6,90781.83%1,45817.27%760.90%5,44964.55%8,441Daviess3,18581.15%70117.86%390.99%2,48463.29%3,925DeKalb3,88580.70%87018.07%591.23%3,01562.63%4,814Dent6,01384.65%1,02514.43%650.92%4,98870.22%7,103Douglas6,24285.64%99613.66%510.70%5,24671.97%7,289Dunklin8,09680.55%1,88518.75%700.70%6,21161.79%10,051Franklin40,12672.35%14,69426.49%6441.16%25,43245.85%55,464Gasconade6,37079.65%1,55519.44%720.90%4,81560.21%7,997Gentry2,65180.53%61618.71%250.76%2,03561.82%3,292Greene85,95659.68%55,97138.86%2,1101.46%29,98520.82%144,037Grundy3,58281.34%78417.80%380.86%2,79863.53%4,404Harrison3,29385.64%53413.89%180.47%2,75971.76%3,845Henry8,28675.80%2,53523.19%1111.02%5,75152.61%10,932Hickory4,10880.23%97819.10%340.66%3,13061.13%5,120Holt1,98284.27%35715.18%130.55%1,62569.09%2,352Howard3,53471.31%1,34127.06%811.63%2,19344.25%4,956Howell15,73382.94%3,07316.20%1620.85%12,66066.74%18,968Iron3,64480.66%82418.24%501.11%2,82062.42%4,518Jackson125,61039.50%187,02658.81%5,3811.69%-61,416-19.31%318,017Jasper39,08472.64%13,94325.91%7801.45%25,14146.72%53,807Jefferson80,79667.72%36,96530.98%1,5531.30%43,83136.74%119,314Johnson16,29869.05%6,96029.49%3441.46%9,33839.56%23,602Knox1,47981.71%31117.18%201.10%1,16864.53%1,810Laclede14,15582.89%2,75616.14%1650.97%11,39966.75%17,076Lafayette12,72073.75%4,29424.90%2341.36%8,42648.85%17,248Lawrence15,00181.41%3,24817.63%1780.97%11,75363.78%18,427Lewis3,56579.47%87219.44%491.09%2,69360.03%4,486Lincoln24,86677.38%6,90821.50%3591.12%17,95855.89%32,133Linn4,43778.02%1,18320.80%671.18%3,25457.22%5,687Livingston5,39578.50%1,42220.69%560.81%3,97357.81%6,873Macon6,30080.37%1,48118.89%580.74%4,81961.47%7,839Madison4,72182.06%98617.14%460.80%3,73564.92%5,753Maries3,98783.31%75515.78%440.92%3,23267.53%4,786Marion9,99175.96%3,03223.05%1300.99%6,95952.91%13,153McDonald7,84383.99%1,42315.24%720.77%6,42068.75%9,338Mercer1,54586.22%23513.11%120.67%1,31073.10%1,792Miller10,82683.21%2,06715.89%1180.91%8,75967.32%13,011Mississippi3,40476.51%1,01522.81%300.67%2,38953.70%4,449Moniteau5,87780.78%1,31318.05%851.17%4,56462.74%7,275Monroe3,47679.40%85719.58%451.03%2,61959.82%4,378Montgomery4,77679.63%1,17019.51%520.87%3,60660.12%5,998Morgan7,72579.35%1,91419.66%960.99%5,81159.69%9,735New Madrid5,20376.39%1,56122.92%470.69%3,64253.47%6,811Newton22,92378.78%5,86720.16%3071.06%17,05658.62%29,097Nodaway6,90971.31%2,67427.60%1061.09%4,23543.71%9,689Oregon3,88484.20%69615.09%330.72%3,18869.11%4,613Osage6,65786.15%1,00913.06%610.79%5,64873.09%7,727Ozark4,04484.60%69814.60%380.79%3,34670.00%4,780Pemiscot3,91774.33%1,33125.26%220.42%2,58649.07%5,270Perry7,98681.29%1,75717.88%810.82%6,22963.41%9,824Pettis13,90773.65%4,70324.91%2721.44%9,20448.74%18,882Phelps13,65870.77%5,37927.87%2631.36%8,27942.90%19,300Pike6,15178.62%1,61820.68%550.70%4,53357.94%7,824Platte29,38150.82%27,56647.68%8701.50%1,8153.14%57,817Polk12,69180.19%2,94818.63%1871.18%9,74361.56%15,826Pulaski11,57974.47%3,76524.21%2051.32%7,81450.25%15,549Putnam2,02184.92%34714.58%120.50%1,67470.34%2,380Ralls4,57579.19%1,15419.98%480.83%3,42159.22%5,777Randolph8,32275.46%2,57123.31%1351.22%5,75152.15%11,028Ray8,60273.76%2,92725.10%1331.14%5,67548.66%11,662Reynolds2,56083.69%47215.43%270.88%2,08868.26%3,059Ripley5,00286.18%76313.15%390.67%4,23973.04%5,804Saline6,49869.65%2,72629.22%1061.14%3,77240.43%9,330Schuyler1,58881.65%33417.17%231.18%1,25464.47%1,945Scotland1,53780.14%35818.67%231.20%1,17961.47%1,918Scott13,78679.13%3,52520.23%1100.63%10,26158.90%17,421Shannon3,36483.72%62515.56%290.72%2,73968.17%4,018Shelby2,69182.50%55016.86%210.64%2,14165.63%3,262St. Charles130,58857.74%92,22640.78%3,3521.48%38,36216.96%226,166St. Clair3,98279.80%95919.22%490.98%3,02360.58%4,990St. Francois21,52175.21%6,81123.80%2830.99%14,71051.41%28,615St. Louis City19,34216.64%94,45881.24%2,4712.13%-75,116-64.60%116,271St. Louis County187,98237.39%305,63560.79%9,1211.81%-117,653-23.40%502,738Ste. Genevieve7,03171.92%2,62926.89%1161.19%4,40245.03%9,776Stoddard11,78386.65%1,73612.77%800.59%10,04773.88%13,599Stone15,35780.31%3,62018.93%1460.76%11,73761.38%19,123Sullivan2,03582.62%40816.57%200.81%1,62766.06%2,463Taney21,23679.17%5,32919.87%2590.97%15,90759.30%26,824Texas9,85585.51%1,58913.79%810.70%8,26671.72%11,525Vernon7,11279.26%1,77419.77%870.97%5,33859.49%8,973Warren14,91574.22%4,97024.73%2101.05%9,94549.49%20,095Washington8,42482.29%1,74717.07%660.64%6,67765.22%10,237Wayne5,03086.03%78313.39%340.58%4,24772.64%5,847Webster15,98480.67%3,65318.44%1770.89%12,33162.23%19,814Worth90481.81%19017.19%111.00%71464.62%1,105Wright7,85087.42%1,05711.77%730.81%6,79375.65%8,980Totals1,751,98658.49%1,200,59940.08%42,7421.43%551,38718.41%2,995,327
By congressional district Trump won six of eight congressional districts. District Trump Harris Representative20.53%77.66%Cori Bush (118th Congress)Wesley Bell (119th Congress) 53.12% 45.17%Ann Wagner62.63%35.91%Blaine Luetkemeyer (118th Congress)Bob Onder (119th Congress) 70.42% 28.30%Mark Alford 37.41% 60.81%Emanuel Cleaver 68.82% 29.97%Sam Graves 70.71% 28.06%Eric Burlison 76.46% 22.57%Jason Smith
Analysis Missouri is a Midwestern state with heavy Southern cultural influence, having been a Southern border state and contested between the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War. A bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century well into the 2000s (backing the winner of all but one presidential election for a century, from 1904 to 2004, the exception being 1956 by just 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. It is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in all three of his election bids.