2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.

New Hampshire was considered a potential battleground state due to the closeness of previous elections. In recent years, the state has shown a much more pronounced Democratic lean at the federal level, as at the time of the 2024 election, New Hampshire's congressional delegation has been entirely Democratic since 2017. As such, most news organizations generally considered the state to be leaning toward Kamala Harris.

New Hampshire was one of the last states called in favor of Harris. She won the state by about 2.8%, significantly closer than Joe Biden's margin in 2020, though moderately wider than Hillary Clinton's margin in 2016. This was Harris's narrowest margin of victory in any state. It was narrower than Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona despite not being as hotly contested by either candidate as those three.

New Hampshire had the closest presidential race out of any state in terms of the margin of raw votes, although the state closest in difference of percentage was Wisconsin.

This also marked the second of only two times that a non-incumbent Republican won the White House without carrying New Hampshire (along with 2016), and the third of only three times overall (along with 2004 and 2016) in which any Republican won without carrying the state. It is also the second time that a Republican has won the popular vote without carrying New Hampshire, with the first time being in 2004. Trump is the only Republican to win two terms without ever carrying the state at least once.

Primary elections New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.

Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024.

Democratic primary

On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu, Democratic senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and the state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes) and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23.

Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot. Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding.

Republican primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of the Republican primaries, held about a week after the Iowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won by Donald Trump, who defeated Nikki Haley by eleven points.

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report August 27, 2024 Inside Elections May 8, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball August 20, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill November 5, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 CNN August 27, 2024 The Economist October 21, 2024538 September 12, 2024 YouGov November 1, 2024 Split Ticket November 1, 2024

Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamalaHarrisDonaldTrump UndecidedMargin270ToWinOctober 24 – November 3, 2024November 3, 202450.5%45.5%4.0%Harris +5.0%538through November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.3%45.4%4.3%Harris +4.9%Silver Bulletinthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.9%46.3%2.8%Harris +4.6%The Hill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.3%42.5%4.2%Harris +10.8%Average51.3%44.9%3.8%Harris +6.4%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedDartmouth CollegeNovember 1–3, 2024587 (LV)± 4.0%62%34%4%Rasmussen Reports (R)October 24–28, 2024901 (LV)± 3.0%48%47%5%Praecones Analytica/NHJournalOctober 24–26, 2024622 (RV)–50%50%–CES/YouGovOctober 1–25, 2024380 (A)–52%45%3%375 (LV)52%45%3%Emerson CollegeOctober 21–23, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%50%47%3%51%47%2%Dartmouth CollegeOctober 5–18, 20242,211 (RV)± 2.1%59%38%3% August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludesUniversity of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.2%52%47%1% August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.Emerson CollegeJuly 26–28, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%46%4%52%48%–University of New HampshireJuly 23–25, 20242,875 (LV)± 1.8%53%46%1% July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention July 13, 2024 attempted assassination of Donald TrumpTrafalgar Group (R)December 10–12, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireOctober 29 – November 2, 20242,814 (LV)± 1.9%51%46%–0%1%2%Saint Anselm CollegeOctober 28–29, 20242,791 (LV)± 2.6%51%46%0%0%1%2%University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGovOctober 10–23, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%50%43%–1%1%5%University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGovOctober 2–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.8%50%41%–1%1%7%Saint Anselm CollegeOctober 1–2, 20242,104 (LV)± 2.1%51%44%0%1%1%3%University of New HampshireSeptember 12–16, 20241,695 (LV)± 2.4%54%43%–0%1%2%Saint Anselm CollegeSeptember 11–12, 20242,241 (LV)± 2.1%51%43%0%1%1%4%

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Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.2%50%43%4%–0%0%3%Emerson CollegeJuly 26–28, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%41%6%0%1%–4%Saint Anselm CollegeJuly 24–25, 20242,083 (RV)± 2.1%50%44%3%0%0%0%3%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireJuly 23–25, 20242,875 (LV)± 1.8%49%43%4%8% July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.Praecones Analytica/NHJournalJuly 19–21, 2024601 (V)–39%40%21%–

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Other/UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireMay 16–20, 20241,140 (LV)± 2.9%52%48%–John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024515 (LV)–48%44%8%Marist CollegeJanuary 15–17, 20241,157 (RV) ± 3.8%52%45%3%Emerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 2023917 (RV) ± 3.3%47%42%11%University of New Hampshire/CNNSeptember 14–18, 20232,108 (LV)± 2.2%52%40%8%Emerson CollegeAugust 9–11, 2023837 (RV) ± 3.4%48%41%11%American Pulse Research & PollingJuly 5−11, 2023895 (LV)± 3.2%52%40%8%Saint Anselm CollegeJune 21–23, 20231,065 (RV)± 3.0%49%40%11%Emerson CollegeMarch 3–5, 20231,025 (RV)± 3.0%42%38%20%co/efficient (R)January 25–26, 20231,179 (LV)± 3.2%40%39%21%Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 1, 2022850 (LV)± 3.3%45%41%14%University of Massachusetts LowellOctober 14–25, 2022600 (LV)± 5.1%49%43%8%Emerson CollegeOctober 18–19, 2022727 (LV)± 3.6%44%43%13%Emerson CollegeSeptember 14–15, 2022800 (LV)± 3.4%46%43%11%University of New HampshireJune 16–20, 2022845 (LV)± 3.2%50%43%8%The Trafalgar Group (R)December 10–12, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%6%Saint Anselm CollegeMay 7–10, 20211,267 (RV)± 2.8%50%43%7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein Other /UndecidedSaint Anselm CollegeJune 28–29, 20241,746 (RV)± 2.3%42%44%4%1%1%8%University of New HampshireMay 16–20, 20241,140 (LV)± 2.9%44%41%3%1%2%9%Suffolk University/USA Today/Boston GlobeJanuary 3–7, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.1%42%34%8%1%1%14%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr Other /UndecidedPraecones Analytica/NHJournalJuly 19–21, 2024601 (V)–39%40%21%–Praecones Analytica/NHJournalMay 15–20, 2024862 (RV) ± 3.3%37%37%15%11%University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGovMay 6–14, 2024600 (LV)± 5.2%42%36%11%11%Marist CollegeJanuary 15–17, 20241,157 (RV) ± 3.8%44%41%12%3%Saint Anselm CollegeDecember 18–19, 20231,711 (LV) ± 3.9%49%39%8%4%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 2023917 (RV) ± 3.3%40%37%8%1%14%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump CornelWest Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeAugust 9–11, 2023837 (RV) ± 3.4%44%39%5%13%

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024515 (LV)–41%47%12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Robert F.Kennedy Jr. DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024515 (LV)–45%40%15%

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BernieSanders DonaldTrump Other/UndecidedEmerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%48%43%9%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ElizabethWarren DonaldTrump Other/UndecidedEmerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%45%43%12%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden NikkiHaley Other /UndecidedMarist CollegeJanuary 15–17, 20241,157 (RV) ± 3.8%44%47%9%Emerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 2023917 (RV) ± 3.3%39%45%16% Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden RonDeSantis Other /UndecidedMarist CollegeJanuary 15–17, 20241,157 (RV) ± 3.8%51%42%7%Emerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 2023917 (RV) ± 3.3%46%38%16%University of New Hampshire/CNNSeptember 14–18, 20232,108 (LV)± 2.2%50%33%17%Saint Anselm CollegeJune 21–23, 20231,065 (RV)± 3.0%49%40%11%Emerson CollegeMarch 3–5, 20231,025 (RV)± 3.0%42%37%7%University of New HampshireJune 16–20, 2022845 (LV)± 3.2%46%47%7%

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden VivekRamaswamy Other/UndecidedUniversity of New Hampshire/CNNSeptember 14–18, 20232,018 (LV)± 2.2%49%20%31%

Joe Biden vs. Tim Scott Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden TimScott Other/UndecidedUniversity of New Hampshire/CNNSeptember 14–18, 20232,018 (LV)± 2.2%47%34%19%American Pulse Research & PollingJuly 5−11, 2023895 (LV)± 3.2%46%41%13%

Joe Biden vs. Chris Christie