2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992. Kamala Harris was widely expected to win the state, which she did by a 5.91% margin, marking the first single-digit margin of victory for a Democrat in the state since 2004. This is the closest a Republican has come to winning in New Jersey since 1992.

While Trump gained nearly 100,000 votes from 2020, Harris received nearly 400,000 fewer votes than Biden. Trump received the most votes in New Jersey of any Republican presidential nominee, surpassing Ronald Reagan's 1984 raw vote total.

New Jersey had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after neighboring New York. New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York and California in seeing significant rightward shifts in 2024. New Jersey was also the only state that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 by double digits that Harris won by a single digit margin in 2024.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The New Jersey Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Republican primary

The New Jersey Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report November 1, 2024 Inside Elections October 31, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball September 25, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill August 26, 2024 CNalysis December 30, 2023 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist October 27, 2024538 October 21, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024

Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedResearch Co.November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%57%40%3%Rutgers-EagletonOctober 15–22, 2024451 (RV)–55%35%10%478 (RV)51%37%12%ActiVoteOctober 2–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%57%43%–Cygnal (R)October 23–24, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%40%8%ActiVoteSeptember 4 – October 2, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%44%–

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedUnited 2024 (R)July 1–2, 2024477 (RV)± 4.5%41%43%16%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024530 (LV)–51%42%7%Emerson CollegeMarch 26–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%39%15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein Other /UndecidedUnited 2024 (R)July 1–2, 2024477 (RV)± 4.5%43%43%8%—3%3%Emerson CollegeMarch 26–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%36%8%1%1%13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /Undecidedco/efficient (R)June 26–27, 2024810 (LV)± 3.4%40%41%7%12%

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024530 (LV)–48%41%11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Robert F.Kennedy Jr. DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024530 (LV)–42%40%18%

Results

By county County Kamala HarrisDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total # % # % # % # % Atlantic 61,879 47.69% 65,817 50.72% 2,063 1.59% -3,938 -3.03% 129,759 Bergen 232,660 50.68% 217,096 47.29% 9,321 2.03% 15,564 3.39% 459,077 Burlington 132,275 57.64% 94,116 41.02% 3,075 1.34% 38,159 16.63% 229,466 Camden 155,522 62.98% 87,767 35.54% 3,665 1.48% 67,755 27.44% 246,954 Cape May 21,648 39.67% 32,151 58.92% 769 1.41% -10,503 -19.25% 54,568 Cumberland 26,577 47.56% 28,675 51.31% 633 1.13% -2,098 -3.75% 55,885 Essex 224,596 71.69% 83,908 26.78% 4,779 1.53% 140,688 44.91% 313,283 Gloucester 78,708 47.81% 83,326 50.61% 2,601 1.58% -4,618 -2.80% 164,635 Hudson 144,765 62.62% 79,913 34.57% 6,503 2.81% 64,852 28.05% 231,181 Hunterdon 36,995 45.72% 42,391 52.38% 1,539 1.90% -5,396 -6.67% 80,925 Mercer 107,558 65.88% 52,274 32.02% 3,438 2.11% 55,284 33.86% 163,270 Middlesex 191,802 52.52% 162,459 44.49% 10,926 2.99% 29,343 8.04% 365,187 Monmouth 156,382 43.42% 197,409 54.81% 6,352 1.76% -41,027 -11.39% 360,143 Morris 135,672 47.66% 143,439 50.39% 5,555 1.95% -7,767 -2.73% 284,666 Ocean 105,789 31.38% 227,232 67.40% 4,114 1.22% -121,443 -36.02% 337,135 Passaic 95,156 46.93% 100,954 49.79% 6,657 3.28% -5,798 -2.86% 202,767 Salem 12,275 39.60% 18,229 58.80% 497 1.60% -5,954 -19.21% 31,001 Somerset 98,790 55.68% 74,101 41.77% 4,521 2.55% 24,689 13.92% 177,412 Sussex 31,019 36.65% 52,123 61.59% 1,487 1.76% -21,104 -24.94% 84,629 Union 147,327 61.23% 89,063 37.01% 4,242 1.76% 58,264 24.21% 240,632 Warren 23,318 38.77% 35,772 59.47% 1,060 1.76% -12,454 -20.70% 60,150Totals2,220,71351.97%1,968,21546.06%83,7971.96%252,4985.91%4,272,725

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Atlantic (largest municipality: Egg Harbor Township) Cumberland (largest municipality: Vineland) Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township) Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany) Passaic (largest municipality: Paterson)

By congressional district Harris won eight of 12 congressional districts, with the remaining four going to Trump, including one that elected a Democrat. District Harris Trump Representative58.61%39.88%Donald Norcross43.00%55.56%Jeff Van Drew53.36%45.00%Andy Kim (118th Congress)Herb Conaway (119th Congress)34.26%64.37%Chris Smith49.80%48.29%Josh Gottheimer51.95%45.53%Frank Pallone Jr.48.45%49.63%Tom Kean Jr. 60.83%36.65%Rob Menendez48.02%49.16%Nellie Pou74.52%23.75%LaMonica McIver53.33%44.62%Mikie Sherrill60.57%36.70%Bonnie Watson Coleman

By state legislative district

Harris won 25 of 40 state legislative districts. Harris carried three districts (2nd, 8th, 21st) represented by Republican senators, while Trump carried three districts represented by Democratic senators (3rd, 36th, 38th). District Harris Trump State senator1st44%55%Mike Testa2nd50%48%Vincent J. Polistina3rd45%53%John Burzichelli4th50%48%Paul D. Moriarty5th64%35%Nilsa Cruz-Perez6th63%35%James Beach7th64%35%Troy Singleton8th50%49%Latham Tiver9th35%64%Carmen Amato10th35%63%James W. Holzapfel11th51%47%Vin Gopal12th36%61%Owen Henry13th41%57%Declan O'Scanlon14th54%43%Linda R. Greenstein15th70%28%Shirley Turner16th55%41%Andrew Zwicker17th64%32%Bob Smith18th53%43%Patrick J. Diegnan19th49%48%Joe F. Vitale20th61%37%Joseph Cryan21st55%43%Jon Bramnick22nd61%37%Nicholas Scutari23rd44%54%Doug Steinhardt24th39%59%Parker Space25th49%49%Anthony M. Bucco26th44%53%Joseph Pennacchio27th64%33%John F. McKeon28th88%11%Renee Burgess29th70%29%Teresa Ruiz30th26%72%Robert W. Singer31st62%35%Angela V. McKnight32nd70%27%Raj Mukherji33rd55%42%Brian P. Stack34th69%29%Britnee Timberlake35th54%42%Nellie Pou36th47%51%Paul Sarlo37th60%37%Gordon M. Johnson38th49%49%Joseph Lagana39th48%50%Holly Schepisi40th45%52%Kristin Corrado

Analysis Trump retook Gloucester County and Morris County, both of which he won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020. Additionally, Trump is the first Republican to win Passaic County since 1992, as well as Atlantic County and Cumberland County since 1988, while also being the first Republican presidential candidate to win a majority of the state's counties since 1992.

The largest swings were in North Jersey, although Trump also flipped counties in South Jersey. This is likely related to North Jersey being part of the New York metropolitan area, which swung heavily to the right in this election.

Trump's success in New Jersey was partially attributed to his success among Hispanic and Latino Americans and Italian Americans, who shifted hard to the right nationally. This was seen in most of New Jersey's majority-Hispanic towns, which collectively shifted 25% to the right, a much higher rate than the state of New Jersey as a whole. In some majority-Hispanic cities, the Democratic Party's margin collapsed by as much as over 30% (Perth Amboy's margin shrunk by 33%), an underperformance that helped Trump flip Hispanic-plurality Passaic County. This was attributed by Republican strategists on the ground to a perceived overly strong focus on identity politics and immigration instead of household issues. Trump's success did not, however, translate down-ballot, as most Democratic legislators put up double-digit overperformances compared to Harris, a phenomenon that appeared to be partially due to Trump-supporting Hispanics voting for Trump and leaving the rest of the ballot empty. With this election, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli's strong performance in the 2021 gubernatorial election, some analysts believed New Jersey has transitioned from a reliable blue state into a potential swing state, although Democrats put up a double digit win in the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election.

See also United States presidential elections in New Jersey 2024 United States presidential election 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries 2024 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References