Lebanon has faced severe decline in recent years, leading to widespread disillusionment across its sectarian groups. After gaining independence in 1943, Lebanon established a sectarian power-sharing system, dividing key government roles among its religious groups. While intended to ensure balance, this system has fostered corruption, patronage, and political fragmentation. Political elites often distribute positions for loyalty rather than merit, leading to a culture of impunity and widespread misuse of state resources, including "ghost employees" to secure support.

Ranked 112th on the Human Development Index, Lebanon is facing severe economic and political instability. The 2019 liquidity crisis, compounded by corruption and disasters like the 2020 Beirut explosion, led to a collapse of the currency, widespread poverty, and resource shortages. With a caretaker government and a currency that has lost 97% of its value, the country struggles to provide basic services.

Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant and political group, has long been aligned with Iran, raising concerns that its domestic actions serve Iranian regional goals. While enjoying strong support within Lebanon's Shiite community, Hezbollah faces opposition from those critical of its ties to Iran and its role in regional conflicts, especially in Syria, where its support for the former Assad regime has drawn criticism from both Lebanese rivals and fellow Shiite figures. Once seen as Lebanon's defender, Hezbollah has faced scandals and growing internal and external criticism. Allegations of corruption and accusations of looting in 2013, have damaged its image. Internationally, its support for Syria's former Assad regime and military actions have led to sanctions and declining popularity, particularly in the Gulf. Within Lebanon, while Hezbollah maintains strong support among Shiites, overall trust in the group has decreased, with many Lebanese expressing distrust and dissatisfaction with its regional involvement. The group's rise to power has involved political violence, including high-profile assassinations and targeted killings of critics executed by Unit 121. Hezbollah's dominance has raised concerns about its influence over Lebanon's politics and its role in the Syrian Civil War. In October 2019, widespread protests in Lebanon criticized Hezbollah and its allies for corruption and economic decline, Hezbollah were also the focus of additional protests after the 2020 Beirut port explosion, ultimately leading to the resignation of the entire Lebanese Cabinet. Hezbollah's financial resources, including unlicensed banking and Iranian cash shipments, were heavily impacted in 2024. The group suffered significant leadership losses from Israeli airstrikes, including the death of Hassan Nasrallah, which severely weakened its structure and influence, leading to predictions of its long-term decline.

Amid Lebanon's crisis, there is an opportunity to rebuild the country with effective institutions and a unified army, free from sectarianism. Experts like David Ramadan and Bilal Ramez believe that weakening Hezbollah, electing a consensus president, and disarming the group could restore Lebanon's stability, strengthen the army, and end Iranian influence.

Background

Lebanon was once considered one of the more prosperous and developed countries in the Arab world, despite lacking significant oil resources, and has experienced a severe decline in recent years, leading to widespread frustration and disillusionment among its population, spanning all sectarian groups.

First granted in the Sykes–Picot Agreement between Britain and France, and implemented fully as result of the French victory in the Franco-Syrian War, Greater Lebanon was put under French mandate on 24 July 1922.

In 1943 Lebanon gained independence from France, and established its political structure on a sectarian power-sharing arrangement. The resulting constitution ensures that all 18 recognized religious sects in the country are represented within the government, the military, and civil service. In this system, the three principal government roles—the presidency, and the roles of prime minister, and speaker of the parliament—are allocated to a Maronite Christian, a Sunni Muslim, and a Shia Muslim, respectively. While this arrangement was initially intended to ensure sectarian balance, it has led to a number of systemic issues. The structure was primarily conceived as a division of power among the political elites of the time, rather than as a means to establish effective governance.

Consequently, Lebanon's political system has become characterized by weakness, corruption, and patronage. Power brokers within the system often distribute government positions to secure loyalty, rather than to reward merit or competence. The sectarian system exacerbates divisions between religious groups, leading to competition for control over valuable government ministries and resources.

This has resulted in a fragmented governmental structure, where various sectarian factions operate more like competing "bureaucratic fiefdoms" rather than a cohesive administration governing the state. The Lebanese state is permeated with corruption, and a culture of impunity prevails. Political parties frequently exploit state institutions as sources of personal income, and rival sects either engage in or tolerate corrupt practices in order to preserve a system that benefits their interests. Additionally, politicians direct public resources to their supporters through their control over governmental departments, and are even involved in the creation of "ghost employees"—nonexistent positions that allow politicians to pocket salaries or distribute funds to promote loyalty among their followers.

Financial crisis Lebanon is a developing country, ranked 112th on the Human Development Index. It has been classified as an upper-middle-income state. The Lebanese liquidity crisis, coupled with nationwide corruption and disasters such as the 2020 Beirut explosion, precipitated the collapse of Lebanon's currency and fomented political instability, widespread resource shortages, and high unemployment and poverty. The World Bank has defined Lebanon's economic crisis as one of the world's worst since the 19th century.

The absence of a functioning president has left Lebanon with a caretaker government, deepening the political and economic instability that began in 2019. According to the World Bank, the economic collapse is one of the worst in the past 150 years, pushing millions of Lebanese citizens into poverty. Government institutions, weakened by years of corruption and political impasse, have struggled to address the growing crisis, including the challenges posed by the ongoing conflict in the region.

Lebanon's economy has been severely impacted by the collapse of its currency, which has lost 97% of its value against the U.S. dollar since 2019, making government salaries almost completely devoid of value. The state's ability to provide basic services has deteriorated, with most citizens relying on private generators due to frequent power outages.

In 2022, the Lebanese government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided upon an economic assistance package amounting billions of dollars, in support of Lebanon. However, the disbursement of these funds is dependent on the execution of a series of complex economic reforms aimed at improving financial and political transparency in Lebanon. Despite this agreement, over 80 percent of the population now lives in multidimensional poverty due to the slow implementation of these reforms by the government.

According to a survey conducted by the Arab barometer, approximately 80 percent of citizens report that the availability and affordability of food are significant concerns. Sixty-eight percent have indicated that they have occasionally or frequently had no food left before they were able to purchase more. From the seven countries surveyed since September 2023, all predominantly Arab, respondents from Lebanon expressed the lowest satisfaction levels in the region regarding access to essential services such as water, electricity, internet, and healthcare. Lebanese participants also reported the highest frequency of electricity outages, with 92 percent experiencing weekly interruptions—43 percentage points higher than the next most affected region, the Palestinian territories, surveyed before October 7 2023. Similarly, 65 percent of Lebanese citizens who responded to the survey reported weekly water shortages, a figure 17 percentage points higher than the next most affected region, again the Palestinian territories.

Amid these conditions, infrastructure has become increasingly fragile. According to Amin Salam, the Lebanese minister of economy and trade, communications and transportation networks are in decline, and together with the vulnerability of the country's ports and airports, Lebanon is at risk of becoming completely isolated.

Fuel and energy crisis Power in Lebanon is largely dependent on a single service provider, Electricité du Liban (EDL), which generates and distributes electricity for the entire country. However, a number of privately owned distributors of electricity generated by EDL also exist as does a huge number of privately owned diesel generators supplying low voltage electricity to local households.

Technical and financial mismanagement of the EDL has been well documented, in 2018 EDL supplied only 63% of the demand for electricity resulting in prolonged power outages, especially in times of peak demand. EDL has witnessed both severe technical losses, reflecting infrastructure of poor quality, inadequate system maintenance and misuse of resources; and a high level of non-technical losses, indicating theft, favour giving in the form of free electricity, lack of governance and insufficient law enforcement. EDL has further failed to collect payments from the public sector, some of which are large consumers such as the Water Institutions, this is due to insufficient administrative staff, various crises and other technical issues. As a result, EDL has reduced energy generation, with the goal of minimizing losses. According to Diwan and Haidar, the prolonged underperformance of EDL has been facilitated by Lebanese political elites who benefit from the status quo.

One of the outcomes of the Lebanese financial crisis was a severe fuel shortage which began in May 2021, due to the government's inability to fund the import of fuel. During the same month Turkey's Karpowership, which previously supplied Lebanon with as much as 370 megawatts (MW), or a quarter of Lebanon's power supply, shut down its generators after an 18-month period for which it was not paid. In October 2021 the state electricity company shut down the two main power plants in Lebanon, the Zahrani and the Deir Ammar power stations, because of fuel shortage, which reduced the total state supplied power to less than 270 megawatts.

The fuel and energy crisis affected multiple sectors, including the humanitarian sector. Fuel and electricity shortages in Lebanon led to a reduction in operations at the country's largest hospitals. These shortages have also affected the public water supply and wastewater treatment systems, resulting in millions of people losing access to public water services, thus posing significant risks to public and environmental health.

Political deadlock