The election to the state parliament Landtag of Brandenburg was held on 22 September 2024. The outgoing Third Woidke cabinet was a black-red-green "flag of Kenya" coalition consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and The Greens, led by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke of the SPD. Despite losses of his partners, he could form a Fourth Woidke cabinet supported by the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

Brandenburg was the third state election within former East Germany in September 2024, three weeks after the state elections in Thuringia and in Saxony in which the Alternative for Germany (AfD) had performed well, coming in a close second in Saxony and taking a clear lead in Thuringia under Björn Höcke.

As the AfD is subject to a Firewall policy against the far-right in Germany, and was leading in the Brandenburg polls by 10%, the election became a two-horse race, either for AfD or against AfD, with several parties even losing representation at all. Despite polling showing them consistently trailing in second place, the SPD, which has governed Brandenburg since its 1990 re-establishment, received support from others and remained the largest party with a five percentage point swing in its favour. The AfD received a swing of six points and won just over 29% of the vote, but was denied to be strongest party.

Recently split off from Die Linke, thus with known candidates and with effective structures in the state, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) debuted at 13.5%, followed by the CDU which declined to 12%. The outgoing government narrowly lost its majority as the Greens collapsed and fell short of the 5% electoral threshold, losing all their seats. Following the BSW walkout, The Left also suffered major losses and fell out of the Landtag, as did the Brandenburg Free Voters. The FDP, which had won 9.3% of the vote in the 2021 German federal election in Brandenburg and was part of a three party coalition that ruled Germany until November 2024, fell to 0.8% of the vote, their worst result in any state election ever, eclipsing the 0.9% of the vote in Saxony two weeks prior, and foreshadowing its collapse on national level.

Background The 2019 Brandenburg state election had resulted in the formation of the third Woidke cabinet, a "Kenya" coalition of the SPD, CDU, and Greens. The SPD remained the strongest party with small losses, just ahead of the AfD, which became the second largest party on a large swing. The CDU and The Left each recorded significant losses. The Greens achieved their best result to date with almost 11%. BVB/Free Voters improved to 5.0%. The FDP remained below the electoral threshold with 4.1% and did not win seats.

The SPD has governed Brandenburg continuously since the first post-reunification election in 1990. In the 2021 German federal election, the party won all 10 federal constituencies across the state.

The Brandenburg election was the third in a string of elections in Eastern Germany in September 2024, each of which saw a strong performance for the far-right AfD. In Thuringia the party became the largest in a state parliament for the first time; it also recorded its best result to date in Saxony. The parties involved in the federal Scholz government also suffered losses in each. The performance of Woidke's SPD in Brandenburg was considered a key test of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's leadership. The Brandenburg SPD campaigned on Woidke's personal popularity; Woidke pledged to resign if the SPD did not remain the largest party, encouraging tactical voting to deny AfD first place. He also received an unusual endorsement from the Minister-President of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer of CDU, who stated "the strongest party needs to be a democratic party".

Parties and lists Party 2019 result candidates Listcandidates Lead candidate Social Democratic Party (SPD) 26.2% 44 87 Dietmar Woidke Alternative for Germany (AfD) 23.5% 43 35 Hans-Christoph Berndt Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 15.6% 44 45 Jan Redmann Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 10.8% 44 30 Antje Töpfer The Left (LINKE) 10.7% 43 35 Sebastian Walter Brandenburg Civic Movement/Free Voters (BVB/FW) 5.0% 44 39 Péter Vida Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4.1% 44 17 Zyon Braun Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) 2.6% 4 13 Christiane Müller-Schmolt Plus Brandenburg (PLUS) 1.3% 12 17 Thomas Bennühr BSW Brandenburg (BSW) – – 30 Robert Crumbach Third Way (III. Weg) – 5 7 Matthias Fischer German Communist Party (DKP) – 4 4 Fabian Große German Rural Economy (DLW) – 6 10 Benjamin Meise Values Union (WU) – – 13 Anna-Sophia Werz Other – 11 –

Opinion polls Graphical summary

Party polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize SPD AfD CDU Grüne Linke BVB/FW FDPBSW Others Lead 2024 state election – 30.9 29.2 12.1 4.1 3.0 2.6 0.8 13.5 4.1 1.7 Wahlkreisprognose 940 28 27 13.5 4 3.5 4.5 0.5 12.5 6.5 1 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,118 27 28 14 4.5 4 3.5– 13 6 1 Wahlkreisprognose 982 26.5 28.5 15 4 3.5 4.5 1 12 5 2 INSA 1,000 2528 16 4 3 4 2 14 4 3Forschungsgruppe Wahlen1,060262915533–1453 Infratest dimap 1,513 26 27 16 4.5 4 4.5 – 13 5 1 Wahlkreisprognose 1,420 20.5 30 15 5.5 3.5 4.5 1 14.5 5.5 9.5 Infratest dimap 1,207 23 27 18 5 4 3 – 15 5 4INSA29 Jul–6 Aug 20241,00020241955421744INSA8–15 Jul 20241,00019241875431735Infratest dimap 1,153 19 23 19 7 4 3 3 16 6 4 Wahlkreisprognose 1,000 16 29 16.5 5 3.5 5.5 1.5 17 6 12.5 European Parliament election – 13.1 27.5 18.4 6.0 4.4 – 3.2 13.8 13.6 9.1INSA13–21 May 20241,00019251976531336Infratest dimap1,161222618863–1074 Wahlkreisprognose 1,100 21 27 15 7 5.5 5.5 2 9.5 7.5 6INSA14–22 Mar 20241,00019251987431236INSA1,00017 28188643133 10Forsa6–10 Jan 20241,00722 3216765345 10INSA13–22 Nov 20231,00020 27188633 114 7Wahlkreisprognose24 Oct–1 Nov 20231,01727 3213.56.5762.5–5.5 521.5 22124.5542.521.57 0.5Infratest dimap8–11 Sep 20231,16020 32188864–4 12Wahlkreisprognose10–14 Aug 20231,003 25 30157872–6 5 22 22136.55.55219.54.5 TieINSA26 Jun–3 Jul 20231,00021 281891053–6 7IFM22 May–1 Jun 20231,000242417101284–2TieInfratest dimap19–24 Apr 20231,20022 23 239755–6 TieINSA27 Mar–4 Apr 20231,00021 2519101054–6 4Wahlkreisprognose7–13 Mar 2023978 23.5 2617986.53–7 2.5pmg – policy matters28 Nov–15 Dec 20221,011 2723177956–64Wahlkreisprognose6–18 Nov 20221,922 26 2613.510873.5–6 TieINSA4–10 Oct 20221,00022 2517111054–6 3Infratest dimap22–26 Sep 20221,165 24 241811944–6 TieWahlkreisprognose4–11 Sep 20221,100 26.5251212675–6.51.5Wahlkreisprognose9–17 May 20221,001 30191613664.5–5.511Infratest dimap21–24 Apr 20221,182 30191810746–311Wahlkreisprognose21–29 Mar 20221,002 29201511685–69Forsa9–17 Dec 20211,008 281714111186–511Wahlkreisprognose8–16 Dec 20211,040 3419109787–615Wahlkreisprognose7–14 Oct 2021980 3219.599.579.57–6.512.52021 federal election26 Sep 2021– 29.518.115.39.08.5–9.3–10.311.4Infratest dimap25–30 Aug 20211,157 3417138977–517Infratest dimap12–15 May 20211,183 231816161147–55Wahlkreisprognose7–13 May 2021– 22181419985–53Wahlkreisprognose12–19 Mar 2021– 2418141410.595–5.56Forsa10–15 Dec 20201,001 231620151264–47Infratest dimap12–17 Nov 20201,002 261920121135–47Wahlkreisprognose30 Sep–7 Oct 20201,089 23191713.512.57.52–5.54INSA29 Sep–6 Oct 20201,043 212017161354–41Wahlkreisprognose19–27 Aug 2020– 2616.519111273–5.57Wahlkreisprognose12–19 Jun 2020– 281622101073–46Wahlkreisprognose4–11 May 2020– 29.520237.57.544–4.56.5Wahlkreisprognose3–8 Apr 2020– 282120.58863–5.57Infratest dimap31 Mar–4 Apr 20201,000 272019121134–47Forsa20–25 Feb 20201,001 221814151573–64 Infratest dimap 11–16 Nov 2019 1,000 25 22 14 12 12 5 5– 5 1 2019 state election 1 Sep 2019 – 26.2 23.5 15.6 10.8 10.7 5.0 4.1 – 4.1 2.7

Results

The SPD secured a victory, increasing both its popular vote percentage and the amount of seats held. Nonetheless, the two largest populist parties – the left-wing BSW and the far-right AfD – earned significant results, combining for precisely half of all the seats in the legislature. The Greens, the Left and the BVB/Free Voters faced a complete defeat, losing all of their seats. Finally, the FDP fell to less than 1% of the vote.

Overall, the outgoing coalition between the SPD, the CDU and the Greens earned 47.1% of the vote in a decline compared to their combined total of 52.6% of the vote in the 2019 election.

Members ConstituencyMemberPartyVotes (%)001 Prignitz IAdam, Jean-RenéAfD34.5 002 Prignitz II/Ostprignitz-Ruppin IIArndt, TorstenAfD36.2 003 Ostprignitz-Ruppin ILiedtke, UlrikeSPD34.6004 Ostprignitz-Ruppin III/Havelland IIBerger, KaiAfD35.0 005 Havelland IFunke, JohannesSPD36.1006 Havelland IISahi, JuliaSPD37.1007 Oberhavel INoack, AndreasSPD34.0 008 Oberhavel IIGrimm, BenjaminSPD37.0009 Oberhavel IIIZimmermann, TimAfD33.4010 Uckermark III/Oberhavel IVGalau, AndreasAfD35.8 011 Uckermark ITeichner, FelixAfD39.8 012 Uckermark IIRescher, NorbertAfD39.7 013 Barnim IKuffert, RomanAfD32.8 014 Barnim IIJohn, SteffenAfD26.3 015 Barnim IIIKotré, LenaAfD34.9 016 Brandenburg an der Havel I/Potsdam-Mittelmark IWernitz, UdoSPD32.1 017 Brandenburg an der Havel IIKornmesser, BrittaSPD39.2 018 Potsdam-Mittelmark IIBalzer, MelanieSPD38.3 019 Potsdam-Mittelmark III/Potsdam IIIAdler, UweSPD39.8 020 Potsdam-Mittelmark IVRüter, SebastienSPD40.0 021 Potsdam ISchüle, MajnaSPD34.4 022 Potsdam IIKeller, DanielSPD42.8 023 Teltow-Fläming IPenquitt, MarcelSPD36.8 024 Teltow-Fläming IIStohn, ErikSPD38.8 025 Teltow-Fläming IIISeiler, InesSPD32.5 026 Dahme-Spreewald IFischer, TinaSPD36.5 027 Dahme-Spreewald II/Oder-Spree IScheetz, LudwigSPD35.7 028 Dahme-Spreewald IIIBerndt, Hans-ChristophAfD39.3 029 Oder-Spree IIHohloch, DennisAfD40.5 030 Oder-Spree IIIMuxel, KathleenAfD36.9 031 Märkisch-Oderland I/Oder-Spree IVVogelsänger, JörgSPD32.7 032 Märkisch-Oderland IIPardeik, ErikAfD33.5 033 Märkisch-Oderland IIIGünther, LarsAfD38.0 034 Märkisch-Oderland IVJanke, Falk GerdAfD38.8 035 Frankfurt (Oder)Möller, WilkoAfD33.6 036 Elbe-Elster IDrenske, PeterAfD36.3037 Elbe-Elster IINothing, VolkerAfD43.5 038 Oberspreewald-Lausitz IBessin, BirgitAfD44.3 039 Oberspreewald-Lausitz II/Spree-Neiße IVJank, FabianAfD38.7 040 Oberspreewald-Lausitz III/Spree-Neiße IIIMünschke, DanielAfD36.8 041 Spree-Neiße IKubitzki, SteffenAfD41.5 042 Spree-Neiße IIHanko, MichaelAfD46.5043 Cottbus IHohm, Jean-PascalAfD34.6 044 Cottbus IIKatzmarek, LarsSPD38.0 List Freiherr von Lützow, Daniel AfD Kaufner, Dominik Hünich, Lars Filter, Benjamin Oeynhausen, Daniela Rita Crumbach, Robert BSW Gruhn, Jouleen Roth, Stefan Lüders, Niels-Olaf von Ossowski, André Matzies-Köhler, Melanie Peschel, Falk Hornauf, Sven Meyer, Jenny Kutsche, Andreas Reinhard, Simon Dorst, Christian Lehmann, Gunnar Skopec, Oliver Redmann, Jan CDU Augustin, Kirsty Hoffmann, Gordon Genilke, Rainer Bretz, Steeven Ludwig, Saskia Bommert, Frank Schierack, Michael Walter-Mundt, Nicole Eichelbaum, Danny Brüning, Julian Fährmann, Ellen Woidke, Dietmar SPD Lange, Katrin Lüttmann, Björn Poschmann, Katja Roick, Wolfgang Hildebrandt, Elske Mittelstädt, Hanka Wolff, Annemarie Fischer, Kurt Graßmel, Nadine Steinfurth, Matthias Schmidt, Martina Maxi Schönbrunn, Sina

Electorate Demographic SPD AfD CDU Grüne Linke BVB/FW FDP BSW Other Total vote30.9% 29.2% 12.1% 4.1% 3.0% 2.6% 0.8% 13.5% 3.8% Sex Men 29%35% 12% 4% 3% 2% 1% 12% 2% Women33% 24% 11% 5% 3% 3% 1% 16% 4% Age 16–24 years old 19%31% 9% 6% 7% 2% 2% 13% 11% 25–34 years old 20%33% 11% 6% 5% 3% 1% 14% 7% 35–44 years old 24%34% 12% 6% 3% 4% 1% 12% 4% 45–59 years old 29%32% 13% 4% 2% 3% 1% 13% 3% 60–69 years old35% 28% 12% 2% 2% 2% 1% 15% 3% 70 and older49% 17% 12% 2% 3% 2% 0% 16% -1% Employment status Self-employed 24%34% 18% 6% 1% 2% 2% 11% 2% Employees31% 29% 11% 5% 4% 3% 1% 12% 4% Workers 24%46% 7% 2% 1% 3% 1% 12% 4% Pensioners40% 22% 12% 1% 2% 2% 1% 18% 2% Education Simple education 30%37% 14% 1% 2% 1% 0% 12% 3% Medium education 28%36% 10% 2% 2% 3% 1% 14% 4% High education34% 21% 13% 7% 4% 3% 1% 13% 4% Source: Infratest dimap

Aftermath