The 2024 Saxony state election was held on 1 September 2024 to elect members to the 8th Landtag of Saxony. It was held on the same day as the 2024 Thuringian state election. Going into the election, the state government was led by Michael Kretschmer of the CDU as Minister-President, in a coalition with the Greens and the SPD.
The CDU remained the largest party with slight losses, followed closely by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) which obtained its best ever result. The SPD remained steady while the Greens fell to just over 5% of the vote; the incumbent coalition lost its majority. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance ran for the first time and won 12% and fifteen seats. The Left fell below the 5% electoral threshold but retained its representation in the Landtag after winning two direct constituencies. The Free Voters of Saxony (FW) elected a single member after lead candidate Matthias Berger won the constituency of Leipzig-Land III.
Background The 2019 election was marked by high gains for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which gained almost 28 percent of the vote and became the second strongest force. After losses, the CDU ended up with almost 32 percent as the strongest party ahead of the AfD. The Left and the SPD received 10.4 and 7.7 percent of the vote, respectively. The Greens increased and achieved their best result in a state election in Saxony with 8.6 percent, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) again missed entering parliament with 4.5 percent.
Parties and lists Party 2019 result candidates Listcandidates Lead candidate Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 32.1% 60 78 Michael Kretschmer Alternative for Germany (AfD) 27.5% 60 75 Jörg Urban The Left (LINKE) 10.4% 60 47 Susanne Schaper Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 8.6% 60 30 Katja Meier Social Democratic Party (SPD) 7.7% 60 54 Petra Köpping Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4.5% 60 48 Robert Malorny Free Voters of Saxony (FW) 3.4% 59 33 Matthias Berger Die PARTEI 1.6% 3 9 Sabine Kuechler Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN) 0.3% – 9 Stephanie Henkel Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 0.3% 2 11 Jonas Bialon Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo) 0.1% 4 12 Michael Gründler Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) – 39 30 Sabine Zimmermann Free Saxons (FS) – 35 30 Martin Kohlmann Values Union (WU) – 5 7 Heiko Petzold Alliance Germany (BD) – 3 16 Steffen Grosse Grassroots Democratic Party (dieBasis) – 3 11 David Murcek Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) – – 7 Thomas Lamowski V-Partei3 – – 4 Simone Schwarzbach Action Party for Animal Welfare (Tierschutz hier!) – – 3 Uwe Werner Other – 13 –
Opinion polls Graphical summary
Party polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize CDU AfD Linke Grüne SPD FDP FWBSW Others Lead 2024 state election – 31.9 30.6 4.5 5.1 7.3 0.9 2.3 11.8 5.6 1.3 Wahlkreisprognose 1,000 33 31 3 5.5 6 – – 13.5 8 2 Forsa 1,012 33 31 3 6 7 – – 12 8 2 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,973 33 30 4 6 6 – – 12 9 3 INSA 1,000 30 32 4 5 6 – 3 15 5 2 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,028 33 30 4 6 7 – – 11 9 3 Infratest dimap 1,566 31 30 4 6 7 – – 14 8 1 Wahlkreisprognose 1,000 34.5 30 4.5 4.5 5 1 – 14 6.5 4.5 Forsa 1,041 33 30 3 6 6 – – 13 9 3 INSA 1,500 29 32 5 5 5 2 4 15 3 3 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,003 34 30 4 6 6 – – 11 9 4 Infratest dimap 1,157 29 30 3 7 7 – – 15 9 1 INSA 1,500 30 32 4 5 5 2 – 15 7 2 2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 – 21.8 31.8 4.9 5.9 6.9 2.4 2.4 12.6 11.3 10 Civey 3,002 31 30 5 6 6 3 – 10 9 1 INSA 1,000 30 34 5 5 6 2 3 11 4 4 Wahlkreisprognose 1,200 31.5 31 3 6.5 6 1.5 – 13.5 7 0.5 Infratest dimap 1,177 30 35 4 7 7 – – 8 9 5 Forsa 1,507 30 34 6 8 7 3 3 4 8 4Wahlkreisprognose rowspan="2" 970 33.5 32 8.5 7 6 2.5 – – 10 1.5 30.5 28.5 6 5.5 5.5 2 – 15.5 6.5 2 Civey 3,004 33 37 8 7 3 1 – – 11 4 Civey 3,0023333 7 7 7 2 3 – 8 TieWahlkreisprognose rowspan="2" 1,173 28.5 32.5 7.5 5.5 8.5 4 – – 13.5 4 27.5 31 4.5 5.5 6 – – 14.5 11 3.5 INSA 1,500 29 35 9 6 7 5 – – 9 6 Wahlkreisprognose 1,558 30 32.5 9 7 10 5 – – 6.5 2.5 Wahlkreisprognose 987 31 32 9.5 7 9.5 4 – – 7 1 Wahlkreisprognose 1,020 29.5 31 8 9.5 10.5 3.5 – – 8 1.5 Wahlkreisprognose 1,000 34 30 10 7 7 3 – – 9 4 Wahlkreisprognose 1,204 35 28 7.5 9.5 9 3 – – 8 7 Wahlkreisprognose 1,023 33 27 5.5 9.5 12 4 – – 9 6 INSA 1,000 25 28 9 9 12 7 3 – 7 3 Wahlkreisprognose 1,100 29 26.5 6 9 15 5 – – 9.5 2.5 Infratest dimap 1,178 27 24 10 8 13 7 3 – 8 3 Wahlkreisprognose 1,002 22 25.5 7 9 19 10 – – 7.5 3.5 2021 federal election – 17.224.6 9.3 8.6 19.3 11.0 2.3 – 7.7 5.3 INSA 1,000 31 26 11 7 11 8 – – 6 5 Infratest dimap 1,179 35 21 10 7 11 6 4 – 6 14 INSA 1,001 34 25 13 7 8 8 – – 5 9 INSA 1,000 24 26 11 13 6 12 – – 8 2 Wahlkreisprognose – 40 30 9.5 8 7 1.5 – – 4 10 INSA 1,008 34 26 11 10 7 5 – – 7 8 Wahlkreisprognose – 38 27.5 10 10.5 5 3 2 – 4 10.5 INSA 1,020 36 26 11 10 7 4 – – 6 10 Wahlkreisprognose – 40 26 8.5 9.5 6 3 1 – 6 14 Wahlkreisprognose – 36.5 29 9 7.5 7.5 4 1.5 – 5 7.5 2019 state election – 32.1 27.5 10.4 8.6 7.7 4.5 3.4 – 5.8 4.6
Minister-President polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize None/Unsure Lead CDU AfD AfD Linke Grüne SPD BSW Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,973 70 15 – – – – – 15 55 INSA 1,000 45 18 – – – – – 37 27 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,028 68 13 – – – – – 19 55 Infratest dimap 1,566 58 20 – – – – – 22 38 Forsa 1,041 50 14 – – – – 2 34 36 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,003 64 14 – – – – – 22 50 Infratest dimap 1,157 58 17 – – – – – 25 41 Wahlkreisprognose rowspan="2" 970 56 23 – – – – – 21 33 56 – 29 – – – – 15 27 Wahlkreisprognose 1,173 57 26 – – – – – 17 31 Wahlkreisprognose 1,558 45 21 – – – – – 34 24 Wahlkreisprognose 1,020 39 24 – 4 3 9 – 21 15 Results
Electorate Demographic CDU AfD Linke Grüne SPD BSW Total vote31.9% 30.6% 4.5% 5.1% 7.3% 11.8% Sex Men 29%35% 4% 5% 7% 11% Women34% 26% 5% 5% 8% 13% Age 16–24 years old 18%31% 13% 8% 7% 10% 25–34 years old 18%28% 11% 10% 9% 9% 35–44 years old 26%31% 5% 8% 8% 11% 45–59 years old33%33% 2% 5% 6% 11% 60–69 years old38% 34% 2% 2% 6% 13% 70 and older45% 24% 2% 1% 8% 15% Employment status Self-employed 25%35% 6% 6% 7% 8% Employees29% 28% 5% 7% 8% 12% Workers 23%45% 3% 3% 3% 11% Pensioners45% 28% 2% 1% 8% 13% Education Simple education 28%45% 3% 1% 5% 10% Medium education 30%39% 2% 2% 5% 13% High education34% 19% 8% 10% 11% 10% Urban structure Large cities28% 21% 10% 11% 11% 11% Small municipalities 34%36% 2% 2% 5% 12% Population change of district Shrinking rapidly 33.8%35.8% 2.2% 1.7% 4.8% 12.9% Growing30.5% 25.9% 6.5% 7.9% 9.3% 11.2% Source: Infratest dimap
Aftermath
The first announcement of the seat distribution, which was early in the morning of 2 September, showed 42 seats for CDU, 41 for AfD, 9 for SPD, and 6 for the Greens. Later in the morning, the state electoral committee announced there had been an error in calculating the seat distribution: one seat was deducted from CDU's and AfD's blocs, and one seat was added to SPD's and Greens' blocs. The committee blamed a software bug that resulted in the 117th through 120th seats being allocated incorrectly. External observers initially speculated that the seat distribution was mistakenly calculated with the D'Hondt method, even though the Sainte-Laguë method was to replace it beginning with this election; administrators denied this and stated it was a coincidence that the incorrect seat distribution matched the D'Hondt method's result. Notably, the loss of this one seat denied AfD a Sperrminorität ("blocking minority") that would have given it veto power over certain parliamentary actions requiring a two-thirds supermajority, such as judicial appointments and constitutional amendments, even if it is not in government.
Saxony has a version of the Grundmandatsklausel ("basic mandate clause") that is present in federal elections, which grants full proportional seating to parties that win two constituency seats even if they do not reach the electoral threshold of 5% of party-list votes. This enabled Die Linke, which received only 4.5% of party-list votes, to win list seats and receive representation in parliament proportionate to its vote share.
Electoral fraud investigation The State Criminal Police Office prosecuted a case of electoral fraud, in which 111 mail ballots in Dresden, 14 in Radeberg, and one in Dohna had their actual votes pasted over and replaced with votes for the right-wing extremist Free Saxony. Initial suspicions were raised after the postal voting district Langebrück-2/Schönborn in Dresden returned an unusually high result of 10.2% of votes for the party, which polled around 2% or less nearly everywhere else in the state. The Dresden and Bautzen electoral committees invalidated all of the modified ballots in their final canvasses of the results on 5 September. The state electoral committee decided this was sufficient and took no further action in its final canvass on 13 September.
Experts from TU Dresden later noticed the neighboring postal voting district Langebrück-1 had returned a similarly unusual figure of 13.4% in June 2024 local elections. Police confirmed that 154 manipulated postal ballots from that election were discovered. Michael Schleinitz, a 44-year-old Free Saxony member from Langebrück who was elected to its district council because of the modified ballots, was suspected of both cases. On 28 October, Schleinitz was arrested for electoral fraud and two unrelated charges of attempted arson against shelters for asylum seekers. In June 2025, he confessed to all charges before the court and was sentenced to four years and three months in prison.
Government formation After the elections in both Thuringia and Saxony, Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of the BSW, stated her preferences to go into a coalition with either the CDU and/or the SPD in an interview with ARD.
Though a right-wing CDU-AfD coalition would have a majority, the national CDU has prohibited any state faction from working with that party. Because of this, the only possible majority coalition was between the CDU, BSW and SPD, also known as the "blackberry coalition".
Kretschmer met with Wagenknecht on 9 September "to explore possibilities for constructive political cooperation", with an eye toward beginning negotiations with BSW on the state level. Federal CDU leader Friedrich Merz appealed to nervous party members to trust Kretschmer and Mario Voigt in their respective negotiations, but reiterated that the party would refuse any cooperation or even discussions with AfD. Kretschmer admitted successful government formation would be a "major challenge" but repeatedly ruled out a minority government.
In a speech on 20 September, Merz described a potential coalition including BSW in either Saxony or Thuringia as "very, very, very unlikely", though with a stated goal of keeping AfD out of the Minister-President's office, he did not rule out other forms of cooperation with the party. Exploratory talks between CDU, BSW and SPD began on 23 September.
On 17 October, the three parties produced a report on the exploratory talks concluding that "constructive and solution-oriented cooperation for Saxony is possible". The parties' state executive committees will meet to vote on approving further negotiations in the following days. On 25 October, SPD suspended its participation in protest of several BSW MdLs voting with AfD to establish a parliamentary inquiry committee into the state government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic; they were resumed the following week after discussions among the parties' leadership.
On 5 November, BSW left the talks permanently and declared they had failed, citing that the parties had irreconcilable differences on the topics of state finances, migration and the War in Ukraine. The only possible remaining government was a CDU-led minority government or coalition, though Kretschmer repeatedly ruled it out. If a Minister-President is not elected in four months after the first sitting of the Landtag (a deadline of 1 February 2025), the state constitution requires a dissolution of the Landtag and new elections.