The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters have chosen electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Tennessee a safe red state; the state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, including by double-digit margins since 2004.
On election night, Tennessee voted decisively Republican for the third consecutive election, with former president Donald Trump winning 64.19% to Kamala Harris's 34.47%, a margin of 29.72%. This marked a considerable improvement over his 23.21% margin in 2020 and, to a lesser extent his 26.00% margin in 2016. He received more than 1.96 million votes in Tennessee, a record for any candidate in state history. This was the best performance by a Republican presidential candidate in Tennessee since Richard Nixon's 37.95% victory in 1972. Trump's vote share is also the fourth-highest for Republicans in state history, behind only 1864, 1868, and 1972.
Primary elections Democratic primary
The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates
Republican primary
The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.
General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report December 19, 2023 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 29, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill December 14, 2023 CNalysis December 30, 2023 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist June 12, 2024538 June 11, 2024RCP June 26, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024
Polling Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris Other /UndecidedActiVoteOctober 5−28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%62%38%–ActiVoteSeptember 24 – October 16, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%62%38%–ActiVoteJuly 26 – August 29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%63%37%–
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedTargoz Market ResearchSeptember 27 – October 8, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%54%35%5%–1%1%4%971 (LV)56%35%5%–0%1%3% Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024510 (LV)–59%35%6%Targoz Market ResearchMarch 15 – April 2, 20241,139 (RV)± 2.8%60%31%9%974 (LV)55%31%14%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityFebruary 29 – March 3, 2024216 (RV)–58%34%8%201 (LV)59%34%7%Targoz Market ResearchDecember 14–28, 20231,139 (RV)± 2.7%61%30%9%929 (LV)63%31%5%Siena CollegeNovember 5–10, 2023805 (A)± 3.8%49%20%31%Targoz Market ResearchOctober 5–16, 20231,075 (RV)± 2.8%59%29%12%835 (LV)61%30%9%Emerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023410 (RV)± 4.8%55%22%23%Targoz Market ResearchJune 14–22, 20231,120 (RV)± 2.9%51%32%17%1,046 (LV)54%34%11%SSRS/Vanderbilt UniversityApril 19–23, 2023502 (RV)–42%26%31%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedTargoz Market ResearchJune 20 – July 1, 20241,152 (RV)± 2.8%55%28%7%10%962 (LV)58%28%5%9%SSRS/Vanderbilt UniversityApril 26 – May 9, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.4%47%29%8%16%Targoz Market ResearchMarch 15 – April 2, 20241,139 (RV)± 2.8%48%25%16%11%974 (LV)47%28%15%10%Targoz Market ResearchDecember 14–28, 20231,187 (RV)± 2.7%48%23%17%12%929 (LV)51%25%16%8%SSRS/Vanderbilt UniversityNovember 14 – December 2, 20231,005 (RV)± 3.4%45%26%12%17%Targoz Market ResearchOctober 5–16, 20231,164 (RV)± 2.8%46%18%22%14%872 (LV)48%23%19%10%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden JoeManchin Other /UndecidedTargoz Market ResearchOctober 5–16, 20231,118 (RV)± 2.8%52%21%5%22%844 (LV)53%23%6%18%
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024510 (LV)–52%35%13%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RobertKennedy Jr. JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024510 (LV)–55%31%14%
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RonDeSantis JoeBiden Other /UndecidedTargoz Market ResearchJune 14–22, 20231,120 (RV)± 2.9%46%32%22%977 (LV)52%36%11%SSRS/Vanderbilt UniversityApril 19–23, 2023502 (RV)–33%24%40%
Electoral slates The following individuals were nominated as presidential electors: Donald Trump and JD VanceRepublican PartyKamala Harris and Tim WalzDemocratic PartyRobert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole ShanahanIndependentJill Stein and Samson LeBeau KpadenouGreen PartyJay Bowman and De BowmanIndependentClaudia De la Cruz and Karina GarciaSocialism and LiberationRachele Fruit and Dennis RichterSocialist Workers
Results
By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanKamala HarrisDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Anderson24,58267.26%11,52531.53%4411.21%13,05735.73%36,548Bedford15,77278.51%4,12220.52%1960.97%11,65057.99%20,090Benton5,88681.07%1,31718.14%570.79%4,56962.93%7,260Bledsoe5,25484.87%89114.39%460.74%4,36370.48%6,191Blount50,69973.24%17,66425.52%8611.24%33,03547.72%69,224Bradley38,83678.86%9,85220.01%5581.13%28,98458.85%49,246Campbell13,11584.46%2,30514.84%1080.70%10,81069.62%15,528Cannon5,68282.58%1,13216.45%670.97%4,55066.13%6,881Carroll9,54780.35%2,23318.79%1020.86%7,31461.56%11,882Carter20,16781.15%4,45417.92%2310.93%15,71363.23%24,852Cheatham14,98772.26%5,46426.34%2901.40%9,52345.92%20,741Chester6,20681.91%1,28616.97%851.12%4,92064.94%7,577Claiborne11,46384.70%1,97114.56%1000.74%9,49270.14%13,534Clay3,11782.90%61416.33%290.77%2,50366.57%3,760Cocke13,10583.67%2,41515.42%1430.91%10,69068.25%15,663Coffee19,17476.91%5,44021.82%3181.27%13,73455.09%24,932Crockett4,67478.94%1,19620.20%510.86%3,47858.74%5,921Cumberland27,39979.09%6,99620.20%2470.71%20,40358.89%34,642Davidson102,25635.26%181,86262.70%5,9182.04%−79,606−27.44%290,036 Decatur4,59684.08%81914.98%510.94%3,77769.10%5,466DeKalb7,59980.87%1,70618.16%910.97%5,89362.71%9,396Dickson19,00275.39%5,91323.46%2891.15%13,08951.93%25,204Dyer11,60380.61%2,70718.81%840.58%8,89661.80%14,394Fayette16,75670.71%6,72028.36%2200.93%10,03642.35%23,696Fentress8,55587.56%1,14911.76%670.68%7,40675.80%9,771Franklin15,01676.12%4,52922.96%1830.92%10,48753.16%19,728Gibson16,34675.51%5,10023.56%2020.93%11,24651.95%21,648Giles10,39477.07%2,97422.05%1190.88%7,42055.02%13,487Grainger9,63086.52%1,43212.87%680.61%8,19873.65%11,130Greene25,58682.28%5,14516.55%3641.17%20,44165.73%31,095Grundy5,33484.29%94814.98%460.73%4,38669.31%6,328Hamblen20,15479.03%5,13220.12%2150.85%15,02258.91%25,501Hamilton97,19555.72%74,43742.67%2,8061.61%22,75813.05%174,438Hancock2,55887.96%33411.49%160.55%2,22476.47%2,908Hardeman5,79361.63%3,52737.53%790.84%2,26624.10%9,399Hardin10,29385.11%1,70414.09%970.80%8,58971.02%12,094Hawkins22,06684.01%3,98715.18%2130.81%18,07968.83%26,266Haywood3,28649.40%3,31149.77%550.83%−25−0.37%6,652Henderson10,08383.70%1,90215.79%620.51%8,18167.91%12,047Henry11,62977.14%3,28621.80%1611.06%8,34355.34%15,076Hickman8,26580.17%1,96819.09%760.74%6,29761.08%10,309Houston2,98978.45%77320.29%481.26%2,21658.16%3,810Humphreys6,40077.44%1,76721.38%971.18%4,63356.06%8,264Jackson4,58680.80%1,04018.32%500.88%3,54662.48%5,676Jefferson21,06881.61%4,50317.44%2440.95%16,56564.17%25,815Johnson6,82984.29%1,21214.96%610.75%5,61769.33%8,102Knox130,81558.96%87,51639.45%3,5331.59%43,29919.51%221,864Lake1,49377.00%42922.12%170.88%1,06454.88%1,939Lauderdale5,63368.15%2,57131.10%620.75%3,06237.05%8,266Lawrence16,42984.11%2,93915.05%1650.84%13,49069.06%19,533Lewis4,85282.38%99116.83%470.79%3,86165.55%5,890Lincoln13,20881.89%2,78217.25%1380.86%10,42664.64%16,128Loudon25,22675.96%7,62522.96%3581.08%17,60153.00%33,209Macon8,95886.69%1,27712.36%980.95%7,68174.33%10,333Madison23,38558.52%16,11540.32%4641.16%7,27018.20%39,964Marion10,78877.43%3,02621.72%1190.85%7,76255.71%13,933Marshall12,42677.85%3,39021.24%1460.91%9,03656.61%15,962Maury37,37671.75%14,14527.15%5691.10%23,23144.60%52,090McMinn19,67381.73%4,20717.48%1920.79%15,46664.25%24,072McNairy9,43783.76%1,72715.33%1030.91%7,71068.43%11,267Meigs5,08583.37%96815.87%460.76%4,11767.50%6,099Monroe18,52682.99%3,60816.16%1890.85%14,91866.83%22,323Montgomery47,795 58.46%32,73640.04%1,2241.50%15,05918.42%81,755Moore3,06083.74%54214.83%521.43%2,51868.91%3,654Morgan7,42786.76%1,05412.31%790.93%6,37374.45%8,560Obion10,59682.14%2,22117.22%830.64%8,37564.92%12,900Overton9,04281.69%1,93117.45%960.86%7,11164.24%11,069Perry3,13984.47%55815.02%190.51%2,58169.45%3,716Pickett2,44182.63%48716.49%260.88%1,95466.14%2,954Polk7,30283.67%1,35615.54%690.79%5,94668.13%8,727Putnam25,55473.14%8,99125.73%3941.13%16,56347.41%34,939Rhea11,97482.90%2,31216.01%1581.09%9,66266.89%14,444Roane21,01176.65%6,07322.15%3281.20%14,93854.50%27,412Robertson26,26074.88%8,42824.03%3821.09%17,83250.85%35,070Rutherford88,81160.15%56,65638.37%2,1891.48%32,15521.78%147,656Scott8,60889.62%9429.81%550.57%7,66679.81%9,605Sequatchie6,52282.66%1,29216.38%760.96%5,23066.28%7,890Sevier35,20780.07%8,32218.93%4411.00%26,88561.14%43,970Shelby118,91736.42%201,75961.80%5,8211.78%−82,842−25.38%326,497Smith7,65581.99%1,59517.08%860.93%6,06064.91%9,336Stewart5,38981.40%1,16017.52%711.08%4,22963.88%6,620Sullivan58,15476.98%16,62422.01%7631.01%41,53054.97%75,541Sumner68,76770.34%27,87428.51%1,1201.15%40,89341.83%97,761Tipton20,30375.95%6,17823.11%2520.94%14,12552.84%26,733Trousdale3,35979.02%85620.14%360.84%2,50358.88%4,251Unicoi6,87680.51%1,57818.48%871.01%5,29862.03%8,541Union7,38485.18%1,21614.03%690.79%6,16871.15%8,669Van Buren2,71883.25%52416.05%230.70%2,19467.20%3,265Warren13,19277.53%3,64721.43%1761.04%9,54556.10%17,015Washington42,29969.08%18,13129.61%8041.31%24,16839.47%61,234Wayne6,01688.07%76211.16%530.77%5,25476.91%6,831Weakley10,54178.70%2,72520.34%1280.96%7,81658.36%13,394White10,71782.88%2,10516.28%1090.84%8,61266.60%12,931Williamson94,56265.36%47,69532.97%2,4111.67%46,86732.39%144,668Wilson56,42569.44%23,85529.36%9741.20%32,57040.08%81,254Totals1,966,86564.19%1,056,26534.47%40,8121.34%910,60029.72%3,063,942
By congressional district Trump won eight of nine congressional districts.https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::445d4976-c994-473f-b14c-4b87464b07ee DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative 78.41% 20.57% 66.24% 32.38% 67.29% 31.40%Chuck Fleischmann 71.19% 27.61%Scott DesJarlais 58.15% 40.25%Andy Ogles 66.96% 31.80% 60.34% 38.20% 70.21% 28.66%David Kustoff 27.81% 70.40%Steve Cohen
Analysis A fast-growing Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.