2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Before the election, most news organizations considered Virginia a likely win for Harris. This was the first presidential election in which both major party candidates received more than 2 million votes in Virginia. On election day, Harris won Virginia with 51.83% of the vote, carrying the state by a margin of 5.78%, similar to the 2016 results, albeit slightly wider. In 2016, Virginia U.S. Senator Tim Kaine was the Democratic vice presidential nominee. Kaine also won by a slightly larger 9 percentage point margin in the concurrent U.S. Senate election in Virginia.

Harris became the first Democratic nominee to win Virginia while losing the nationwide popular vote since 1924, a century earlier. Meanwhile, neighboring West Virginia gave Trump 70% of the vote, with the two states differing by 48 percentage points in margin. Trump became the first president to win two terms without ever carrying Virginia since Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and the first Republican to do so since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900.

Although Virginia swung rightward in 2024, it trended leftward and voted over 7 percentage points to the left of the nation, compared to 5 percentage points in 2020, and 3 percentage points in 2016. This was also the first time a Democratic nominee who lost the popular vote won an absolute majority of the vote in Virginia since 1924.

This election confirmed Virginia's status as a blue state. Virginia voted for the loser of the popular vote for the first time since 2000, and the loser of both the electoral vote and popular vote since 1996. This was similar to how Florida in 2024 voted for Trump by over 13%, after Florida in 2020 backed Trump despite him losing both the electoral vote and popular vote.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The Virginia Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state and all 11 of its congressional districts, securing 99 pledged delegates. Activist Marianne Williamson garnered 8% of the vote total, which was her second-best performance on Super Tuesday after Oklahoma.

Republican primary

The Virginia Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, attaining 42 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention in July. Trump performed best in southwest Virginia, while Haley's strength lay in Charlottesville, Albemarle County, the urban areas of Richmond and the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C.

General election

Voting law changes In August 2024, Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin signed an executive order removing 6,303 voters suspected of being non-citizens from Virginia's voter rolls. In October 2024, the Department of Justice sued the Virginia Board of Elections and Virginia commissioner of elections over the voter purge, accusing that it violated the National Voter Registration Act. The suit also found a number of alleged non-citizens purged were actually citizens. District judge Patricia Tolliver Giles ruled that the removal was illegal, ordering the state to stop purging voter rolls and to restore the voter registration of more than 1,600 voters who had been removed. The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals then upheld the order. The administration filed an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court, which sided with Virginia in a 6–3 decision, allowing the state to continue purging voter rolls.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report June 12, 2024 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball August 27, 2024 The Economist September 10, 2024 CNalysis September 15, 2024 CNN August 18, 2024538 August 23, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024 YouGov October 16, 2024 Split Ticket November 1, 2024

Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamalaHarrisDonaldTrump UndecidedMargin270ToWin270ToWinOctober 2 - November 1, 2024November 4, 202449.8%41.0%9.2%Harris +8.8%538through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.9%43.7%6.4%Harris +6.2%Silver BulletinSilver Bulletinthrough November 3, 2024November 3, 202449.5%43.2%7.3%Harris +6.3%The Hill/DDHQThe Hill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.1%45.1%4.8%Harris +5.0%Average49.8%43.3%6.9%Harris +6.5%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedAtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 20242,202 (LV)± 2.0%51%46%3%Research Co.November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%51%45%4%ActiVoteOctober 2–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%–Rasmussen Reports (R)October 24–25, 20241,014 (LV)± 3.0%48%46%6%CES/YouGovOctober 1–25, 20242,027 (A)–53%44%3%2,015 (LV)53%44%3%Quantus Insights (R)October 22−24, 2024725 (LV)± 3.6%49%48%3%Braun ResearchOctober 19−23, 20241,004 (RV)± 3.5%48%42%9%1,004 (LV)49%43%8%Christopher Newport UniversitySeptember 28 − October 4, 2024800 (LV)± 4.4%52%41%7%Emerson CollegeSeptember 22−24, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%52%44%4%53%46%1%Morning ConsultSeptember 9−18, 2024899 (LV)± 3.0%51%44%5%Rasmussen Reports (R)September 19−22, 20241,144 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%5%ActiVoteAugust 19 – September 17, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%–Research America Inc.September 3−9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%45%45%10%756 (LV)± 4.1%48%46%6%Washington Post/Schar SchoolSeptember 4–8, 20241,005 (RV)± 3.5%51%43%6%1,005 (LV)51%43%6%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 2024873 (LV)± 3.0%52%42%6% August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.Quantus Insights (R)August 20–22, 2024629 (RV)± 4.0%47%44%9% August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National ConventionRoanoke CollegeAugust 12–16, 2024691 (LV)± 4.5%47%44%10% August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. July 15–19, 2024 Republican National ConventionEmerson CollegeJuly 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%47%8%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJuly 14–15, 2024301 (RV)–43%44%13%265 (LV)43%47%10% July 13, 2024 attempted assassination of Donald TrumpMainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJuly 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%45%41%14%544 (LV)46%42%12%New York Times/Siena CollegeJuly 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%48%44%8%661 (LV)± 4.4%49%44%7%SoCal Strategies (R)July 6–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.1%47%47%6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedAtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 20242,202 (LV)± 2.0%51%45%–2%1%1%Chism StrategiesOctober 28–30, 2024520 (LV)± 4.3%45.2%44.5%–1.3%0.6%8.4%Cygnal (R)October 27–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.0%50%43%1%1%0%5%Roanoke CollegeOctober 25–29, 2024851 (LV)± 4.6%51%41%2%1%2%3%Virginia Commonwealth UniversitySeptember 16–25, 2024832 (A)± 4.6%43%37%3%1%–16%762 (RV)47%37%2%1%–13%Washington Post/Schar SchoolSeptember 4–8, 20241,005 (RV)± 3.5%49%42%0%1%1%7%1,005 (LV)50%42%0%1%1%6%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityAugust 26 – September 6, 2024809 (A)± 5.0%46%36%2%1%–15%749 (RV)49%36%1%1%–13% Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedResearch America Inc.September 3−9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%44%44%2%−0%0%10%756 (LV)± 4.1%47%46%2%−0%0%6%Roanoke CollegeAugust 12–16, 2024691 (LV)± 4.5%45%42%6%2%0%2%3% July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.New York Times/Siena CollegeJuly 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%41%38%9%0%1%0%11%661 (LV)± 4.4%43%39%7%0%1%0%10%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr Other /Undecided July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJuly 14–15, 2024301 (RV)–40%41%7%12%265 (LV)41%45%5%9%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJuly 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%41%37%10%12%544 (LV)± 3.9%43%38%10%9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeJuly 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%45%12%50%50%–Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJuly 14–15, 2024301 (RV)–41%44%15%265 (LV)44%44%12%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJuly 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%45%41%14%544 (LV)± 3.9%47%42%11%New York Times/Siena CollegeJuly 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%46%44%10%661 (LV)± 4.4%48%45%7%SoCal Strategies (R)July 6–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.1%47%44%9%Fox NewsJune 1–4, 20241,107 (RV)± 3.0%48%48%4%Roanoke CollegeMay 12–21, 2024711 (LV)± 4.2%42%42%16%McLaughlin & Associates (R)April 29 – May 1, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%48%44%8%Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)April 26–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%43%42%16%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024586 (LV)–45%45%10%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityFebruary 29 – March 3, 2024394 (RV)–47%42%11%368 (LV)47%43%10%Roanoke CollegeFebruary 11–19, 2024705 (A)± 4.6%47%43%10%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityDecember 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024812 (A)± 5.4%43%40%17%Mason-DixonDecember 15–19, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8%Roanoke CollegeNovember 12–20, 2023686 (A)± 4.3%48%44%8%Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)September 16–19, 20231,437 (RV)–47%42%11%Research America Inc.September 5–11, 20231,000 (A)± 3.0%37%37%26%Roanoke CollegeAugust 6–15, 2023702 (A)± 4.2%51%42%17%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityJuly 14–25, 2023804 (A)± 5.4%43%40%17%Roanoke CollegeMay 14–23, 2023678 (A)± 4.4%54%38%8%Public Opinion Strategies (R)May 7–9, 2023500 (LV)–48%41%11%Roanoke CollegeFebruary 12–21, 2023590 (RV)± 4.2%47%46%6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeJuly 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%38%43%8%2%2%7%New York Times/Siena CollegeJuly 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%38%36%9%0%2%15%661 (LV)± 4.4%40%38%7%0%2%13%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityJune 24 – July 3, 2024809 (A)± 4.8%36%39%9%1%2%13%Fox NewsJune 1–4, 20241,107 (RV)± 3.0%42%41%9%2%2%4%Roanoke CollegeMay 12–21, 2024711 (LV)± 4.2%40%38%8%1%3%10%McLaughlin & Associates (R)April 29 – May 1, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%40%37%8%1%2%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr Other /UndecidedMainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJuly 14–15, 2024301 (RV)–40%40%5%15%265 (LV)43%42%4%11%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJuly 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%41%38%11%10%544 (LV)± 3.9%42%39%10%9%co/efficient (R)June 11–12, 2024851 (LV)± 3.4%41%41%7%11%Mason-DixonDecember 15–19, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%42%36%14%8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump CornelWest Other /UndecidedChange Research (D)/Future Majority (D)September 16–19, 20231,437 (RV)–40%39%7%14%37%37%5%21%

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.