2024 United States presidential election in Michigan

The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan took place that November 5 as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose electors for Donald Trump and JD Vance to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.

Due to the state's nearly even partisan lean and the close margins by which it was decided in 2016 and 2020, it was considered to be one of the seven crucial swing states in 2024, though many viewed it as the most difficult of the seven for Trump to regain, even harder than Nevada, the only one of seven Trump never won in 2016 and 2020. However, contrary to polling data, Trump flipped Michigan back into the Republican column, defeating Kamala Harris by 1.42%. This made the state 0.06% more Democratic than the nation at-large and therefore the closest to the national results. Michigan shares with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the longest active streak of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the last five presidential elections. Altogether, the three states have voted for the same candidate in nine consecutive elections, dating to 1992.

This was the first election since 2012 where Michigan voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole. It was also the first election since 1988 that Michigan voted more Republican than neighboring Wisconsin.

Primary elections Democratic primary

One key issue for the Democratic nominee was retaining the support of Arab-American voters, with polls indicating that they could be alienated by the Democrats due to their pro-Israel policy.

The Michigan Democratic primary was held on February 27, 2024, as one of the earliest races of the larger Democratic primaries. Incumbent president Joe Biden won in a landslide, although he would lose two delegates and over 100,000 votes to the uncommitted option, which was fueled by pro-Palestine protest votes opposing Biden's campaign due to his handling of the Gaza war.

Republican primary

Following a schism in the state Republican Party, Michigan held two Republican nominating contests. The primary was held on February 27, 2024, and awarded a small amount of delegates to former president Donald Trump, who won in a landslide, and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley. The party later held a caucus on March 2, in which Trump won the remainder of delegates.

General election Candidates The following candidates had qualified for the general election ballot: Kamala Harris — Democratic Donald Trump — Republican Chase Oliver — Libertarian Randall Terry — US Taxpayers Jill Stein — Green Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — Natural Law Joseph Kishore — Independent (Socialist Equality Party nominee) Cornel West — Independent

On April 18, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was nominated by Michigan's Natural Law Party. Despite suspending his campaign on August 23 and legal attempts to withdraw himself, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled that his name would remain on the ballot. Jill Stein from the Green Party also appeared on the ballot.

Additionally, voters had the option to write-in candidates who file a letter of intent by October 25.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 4, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 4, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill November 4, 2024 CNN November 4, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 The Economist November 5, 2024 538 November 4, 2024 Inside Elections November 4, 2024 NBC News November 4, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamalaHarrisDonaldTrump Other /UndecidedMargin270ToWin270ToWinOctober 23 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.6% 46.8%4.6%Harris +1.8%538538through November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.0%47.0%5.0%Harris +1.0%Silver BulletinSilver Bulletinthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.4%47.2%4.4%Harris +1.2%The Hill/DDHQThe Hill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.7% 48.3%3.0%Harris +0.4%Average48.4%47.3%4.3%Harris 1.1%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedHarrisXNovember 3–5, 20241,864 (RV)± 2.3%47%46%7%50.1%49.9%–1,668 (LV)48%48%4%50.3%49.7%–AtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 20241,113 (LV)± 3.0%48%50%2%Research Co.November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%49%47%4%Trafalgar Group (R)November 1–3, 20241,079 (LV)± 2.9%47%48%5%Patriot PollingNovember 1–3, 2024858 (RV)± 3.0%49%49%2%InsiderAdvantage (R)November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%47%47%6%AtlasIntelNovember 1–2, 20241,198 (LV)± 3.0%48%50%2%Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 2, 2024790 (LV)± 3.4%50%48%2%51%49%–Mitchell ResearchOctober 29 – November 2, 2024585 (LV)± 4.0%50%48%2%The New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 29 – November 2, 2024998 (RV)± 3.5%45%45%9%998 (LV)47%47%6%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityOctober 25 – November 2, 2024733 (RV)± 3.6%48%46%6%714 (LV)49%47%4%ActiVoteOctober 8 – November 2, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%50%50%–Rasmussen Reports (R)October 24 – November 1, 2024908 (LV)± 3.0%49%48%3%AtlasIntelOctober 30–31, 20241,136 (LV)± 3.0%48.7%49.3%2%OnMessage Inc. (R)October 29–31, 2024800 (LV)–48%48%4%YouGovOctober 25–31, 2024985 (RV)± 3.9%50%46%4%942 (LV)50%47%3%Morning ConsultOctober 22−31, 20241,108 (LV)± 3.0%49%48%3%Marist CollegeOctober 27–30, 20241,356 (RV)± 3.3%51%48%1%1,214 (LV)± 3.5%51%48%1%Echelon InsightsOctober 27–30, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%48%48%4%Mitchell ResearchOctober 28–29, 2024– (LV)± 2.5%47%48%5%AtlasIntelOctober 25–29, 2024938 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%Quantus Insights (R)October 26–28, 2024844 (LV)± 3.4%49%49%2%The Washington PostOctober 24–28, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.7%45%47%8%1,003 (LV)47%46%7%Fox NewsOctober 24–28, 20241,275 (RV)± 2.5%50%48%2%988 (LV)± 3.0%49%49%2%InsiderAdvantage (R)October 26–27, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%47%48%5%Emerson CollegeOctober 25–27, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%49%50%1%Susquehanna Polling & ResearchOctober 23–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%47%1%Patriot PollingOctober 24–26, 2024796 (RV)± 3.0%49%50%1%CES/YouGovOctober 1–25, 20242,347 (A)–52%45%3%2,336 (LV)51%46%3%Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 17–21, 20241,136 (LV)± 2.9%50%46%4%Trafalgar Group (R)October 18−20, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%44%46%10%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultOctober 16–20, 2024756 (RV)± 4.0%48%46%6%705 (LV)50%46%4%The Bullfinch GroupOctober 11−18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%53%45%2%51%43%6%AtlasIntelOctober 12–17, 20241,529 (LV)± 3.0%47%50%3%RMG ResearchOctober 10–16, 2024789 (LV)± 3.5%48%48%4%49%49%2%Morning ConsultOctober 6−15, 20241,065 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%4%The Washington Post/Schar SchoolSeptember 30 – October 15, 2024687 (RV)± 4.6%46%47%7%687 (LV)49%47%4%Mitchell ResearchOctober 14, 2024589 (LV)± 4.0%47%48%5%Rasmussen Reports (R)October 9–14, 20241,058 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%4%SoCal Strategies (R)October 10–13, 2024692 (LV)± 3.7%49%48%3%Michigan State University/YouGovSeptember 23 – October 10, 2024845 (LV)–52%48%–InsiderAdvantage (R)October 8–9, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%46%48%6%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)October 6–9, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%49%3%Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)October 2–8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%49%3%ActiVoteSeptember 15 – October 9, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%51%49%–Emerson CollegeOctober 5–8, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%49%49%2%50%50%–The Wall Street JournalSeptember 28 – October 8, 2024600 (RV)± 5.0%49%47%4%Research Co.October 5–7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%46%44%10%51%48%1%Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 3–7, 20241,007 (LV)± 3.1%47%51%2%OnMessage Inc. (R)September 24 – October 2, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%6%Mitchell ResearchSeptember 30, 2024709 (LV)± 3.7%48%49%3%Trafalgar Group (R)September 28–30, 20241,086 (LV)± 2.9%44%47%9%Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)September 23–29, 2024404 (LV)± 4.9%47%49%4%RMG ResearchSeptember 24–27, 2024789 (LV)± 3.5%50%46%4%50%47%3%The New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 21–26, 2024688 (RV)± 4.0%45%47%8%688 (LV)48%47%5%AtlasIntelSeptember 20–25, 2024918 (LV)± 3.0%47%51%2%Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)September 19–25, 2024416 (LV)–51%48%1%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultSeptember 19–25, 2024894 (RV)± 3.0%49%47%4%800 (LV)50%47%3%Rodriguez Gudelunas StrategiesSeptember 19–23, 2024400 (LV)–51%45%4%Rasmussen Reports (R)September 19−22, 20241,086 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%4%Emerson CollegeSeptember 15–18, 2024875 (LV)± 3.2%49%47%4%50%49%1%Morning ConsultSeptember 9−18, 20241,297 (LV)± 3.0%52%44%4%Marist CollegeSeptember 12−17, 20241,282 (RV)± 3.2%50%47%3%1,138 (LV)± 3.4%52%47%1%Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 12–16, 2024905 (LV)± 3.3%51%46%3%InsiderAdvantage (R)September 11–12, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%48%49%3%Mitchell ResearchSeptember 11, 2024580 (LV)± 4.0%48%48%4%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 20241,368 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%5%co/efficient (R)September 4–6, 2024931 (LV)± 3.2%47%47%6%CBS News/YouGovSeptember 3–6, 20241,077 (LV)± 3.7%50%49%1%Patriot PollingSeptember 1–3, 2024822 (RV)–48%48%4%Cygnal (R)August 28 – September 1, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%46%7%Trafalgar Group (R)August 28–30, 20241,089 (LV)± 2.9%47%47%6%Emerson CollegeAugust 25–28, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%50%47%3%51%48%1%ActiVoteJuly 28 – August 28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%50%50%–EPIC-MRAAugust 23–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%47%7%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultAugust 23–26, 2024651 (LV)± 4.0%49%47%4%702 (RV)49%46%5% August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.YouGovAugust 15–23, 2024500 (A)± 5.0%44%44%12%– (LV)± 6.0%47%48%5%TIPP InsightsAugust 20–22, 2024741 (LV)± 3.7%48%46%6% August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National ConventionFabrizio Ward (R)August 19–21, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%46%48%6%Rasmussen Reports (R)August 13–19, 20241,093 (LV)± 3.0%48%47%5%FocaldataAugust 6–16, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%53%47%–The Bullfinch GroupAugust 8–11, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%48%43%9%Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)August 7–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%48%4%InsiderAdvantage (R)August 6–8, 2024800 (LV)–49%47%4%The New York Times/Siena CollegeAugust 5–8, 2024619 (RV)± 4.8%45%48%7%619 (LV)50%46%5%Navigator Research (D)July 31 – August 8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%46%7%Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)July 26 – August 8, 2024406 (LV)–49%46%6%Public Opinion Strategies (R)July 23–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%45%45%10%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultJuly 24–28, 2024706 (RV)± 4.0%53%42%4%SoCal Strategies (R)July 25–26, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%46%49%5%Fox NewsJuly 22–24, 20241,012 (RV)± 3.0%49%49%2%Emerson CollegeJuly 22–23, 2024800 (RV)± 3.4%45%46%9%49%51%– July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. July 19, 2024 Republican National Convention concludes July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald TrumpPublic Policy Polling (D)July 11–12, 2024568 (RV)–46%48%6%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultMay 7–13, 2024704 (RV)± 4.0%44%47%9%The New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 22 – November 3, 2023616 (RV)± 4.4%45%47%8%616 (LV)48%46%6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver