2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi

The 2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Trump scored a convincing victory in Mississippi, a socially conservative Bible Belt state. Biden's main support was in the western Delta counties next to the Mississippi River, and in Hinds County, home to the state capital and largest city of Jackson. In contrast, Trump's margins came from the regions bordering the Gulf Coast, the northeast Appalachian area, and the Jackson and Memphis suburbs. Trump's strength also came from winning 81% of the White vote, which constituted 69% of the electorate.

As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississippi voters supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippi voters supported Biden. 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and they backed the president 82%-17%. Trump also received 89% of the white Evangelical vote, which made up 54% of the electorate. Biden flipped Warren County, with 49.6% of the vote to Trump's 49.2%.

Primary elections The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

Democratic primary Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared candidates still active in the race.

General election

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportSeptember 10, 2020Inside ElectionsSeptember 4, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallJuly 14, 2020PoliticoSeptember 8, 2020RCPAugust 3, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.July 26, 2020CNNAugust 3, 2020The EconomistSeptember 2, 2020CBS NewsAugust 16, 2020270towinAugust 2, 2020ABC NewsJuly 31, 2020NPRAugust 3, 2020NBC NewsAugust 6, 2020538November 2, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to Win270 to WinOctober 17–27, 2020November 3, 202040.0%57.0%3.0%Trump +17.0FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202039.6%55.5%4.9%Trump +15.9Average39.8%56.3%3.9%Trump +16.5

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,461 (LV)± 4%61%37% - - – –Data For ProgressData For ProgressOct 27 – Nov 1, 2020562 (LV)± 4.1%55%41%2%1%1% –Civiqs/Daily KosCiviqs/Daily KosOct 23–26, 2020507 (LV)± 5.3%55%41% - -3%1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20202,116 (LV) –62%37% - - – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 2020782 (LV) –55%44% - - –1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020607 (LV) –61%36% - - –3%Tyson Group/Consumer Energy AllianceTyson Group/Consumer Energy AllianceAug 28–30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4%50%40% No voters -No voters6%Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike EspyGarin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike Espy Jul 30 – Aug 9, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.1%53% 43% - - – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 2020733 (LV) –59%39% - - –2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020425 (LV) –63%35% - - –2%Chism Strategies (D)Chism Strategies (D) Jun 2–4, 2020 568 (LV) ± 4.1%50% 41% - - 6% 3%Chism Strategies/Millsaps College Apr 8–9, 2020 508 (RV) ± 4.4%49% 38% - - 7% 7%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon Feb 26–28, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0%56% 41% - - – 3%Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D) UndecidedMason-Dixon Feb 26–28, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0%59% 36% 5%

Results

By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanJoe BidenDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adams5,69641.40%7,91757.54%1461.06%-2,221-16.14%13,759Alcorn12,81881.16%2,78217.62%1931.22%10,03663.55%15,793Amite4,50362.58%2,62036.41%731.01%1,88326.17%7,196Attala5,17858.69%3,54240.15%1031.17%1,63618.54%8,823Benton2,57059.92%1,67939.15%400.93%89120.77%4,289Bolivar4,67133.99%8,90464.78%1691.23%-4,233-30.80%13,744Calhoun4,62570.18%1,90228.86%630.96%2,72341.32%6,590Carroll3,92468.83%1,72930.33%480.84%2,19538.50%5,701Chickasaw4,17551.28%3,81046.80%1561.92%3654.48%8,141Choctaw3,00171.06%1,18528.06%370.88%1,81643.00%4,223Claiborne60313.55%3,77284.78%741.66%-3,169-71.23%4,449Clarke5,41764.97%2,83834.04%831.00%2,57930.93%8,338Clay4,18141.03%5,84457.36%1641.61%-1,663-16.32%10,189Coahoma2,37527.94%6,02070.82%1061.25%-3,645-42.88%8,501Copiah6,25048.51%6,47050.22%1631.27%-220-1.71%12,883Covington5,85462.54%3,41636.50%900.96%2,43826.05%9,360DeSoto46,46261.03%28,26537.13%1,3971.84%18,19723.90%76,124Forrest17,29054.62%13,75543.45%6091.92%3,53511.17%31,654Franklin2,92365.52%1,48033.18%581.30%1,44332.35%4,461George9,71387.91%1,21811.02%1181.07%8,49576.88%11,049Greene4,79482.48%96616.62%520.89%3,82865.86%5,812Grenada6,08155.73%4,73443.39%960.88%1,34712.35%10,911Hancock16,13276.98%4,50421.49%3211.53%11,62855.49%20,957Harrison46,82261.80%27,72836.60%1,2181.61%19,09425.20%75,768Hinds25,14125.14%73,55073.55%1,3041.30%-48,409-48.41%99,995Holmes1,36916.87%6,58881.18%1581.95%-5,219-64.31%8,115Humphreys1,11826.69%3,01672.00%551.31%-1,898-45.31%4,189Issaquena30845.56%35552.51%131.92%-47-6.95%676Itawamba9,43887.24%1,24911.54%1321.22%8,18975.69%10,819Jackson36,29566.54%17,37531.86%8731.60%18,92034.69%54,543Jasper4,30249.24%4,34149.69%931.06%-39-0.45%8,736Jefferson53113.59%3,32785.13%501.28%-2,796-71.55%3,908Jefferson Davis2,53440.79%3,59957.93%801.29%-1,065-17.14%6,213Jones21,22670.54%8,51728.30%3481.16%12,70942.24%30,091Kemper1,78737.77%2,88761.02%571.20%-1,100-23.25%4,731Lafayette12,94955.28%10,07042.99%4041.72%2,87912.29%23,423Lamar20,70472.68%7,34025.77%4411.55%13,36446.92%28,485Lauderdale17,96757.50%12,96041.48%3201.02%5,00716.02%31,247Lawrence4,28564.80%2,26034.18%681.03%2,02530.62%6,613Leake5,22856.83%3,89742.36%750.82%1,33114.47%9,200Lee24,20765.51%12,18932.98%5581.51%12,01832.52%36,954Leflore3,12928.72%7,64870.21%1161.06%-4,519-41.49%10,893Lincoln11,59669.02%5,04030.00%1650.98%6,55639.02%16,801Lowndes13,80050.66%13,08748.04%3541.30%7132.62%27,241Madison31,09155.31%24,44043.48%6811.21%6,65111.83%56,212Marion8,27367.94%3,78731.10%1170.96%4,48636.84%12,177Marshall7,56647.83%8,05750.94%1941.23%-491-3.10%15,817Monroe11,17764.76%5,87434.03%2081.21%5,30330.73%17,259Montgomery2,91757.48%2,12141.79%370.73%79615.68%5,075Neshoba8,32071.09%3,26027.86%1231.05%5,06043.24%11,703Newton6,99768.71%3,07530.20%1111.09%3,92238.52%10,183Noxubee1,24023.23%4,04075.67%591.11%-2,800-52.44%5,339Oktibbeha9,00445.57%10,29952.13%4542.30%-1,295-6.55%19,757Panola8,06051.58%7,40347.37%1641.05%6574.20%15,627Pearl River19,59581.53%4,14817.26%2901.21%15,44764.27%24,033Perry4,50076.06%1,36223.02%540.91%3,13853.04%5,916Pike8,47948.89%8,64649.86%2171.25%-167-0.96%17,342Pontotoc11,55080.43%2,61418.20%1971.37%8,93662.22%14,361Prentiss8,37078.64%2,15320.23%1211.14%6,21758.41%10,644Quitman1,02631.80%2,15066.65%501.55%-1,124-34.84%3,226Rankin50,89572.03%18,84726.67%9131.29%32,04845.36%70,655Scott6,28558.56%4,33040.34%1181.10%1,95518.21%10,733Sharkey68831.52%1,46567.11%301.37%-777-35.59%2,183Simpson7,63564.62%4,03734.17%1431.21%3,59830.45%11,815Smith6,45877.55%1,79121.51%780.94%4,66756.05%8,327Stone5,96475.70%1,80222.87%1121.42%4,16252.83%7,878Sunflower2,79928.91%6,78170.04%1011.04%-3,982-41.13%9,681Tallahatchie2,48843.76%3,10554.62%921.62%-617-10.85%5,685Tate8,70766.50%4,18331.95%2031.55%4,52434.55%13,093Tippah8,05479.73%1,93719.17%1111.10%6,11760.55%10,102Tishomingo7,93386.81%1,05911.59%1461.60%6,87475.22%9,138Tunica92626.00%2,58072.43%561.57%-1,654-46.43%3,562Union10,37381.79%2,16017.03%1501.18%8,21364.76%12,683Walthall4,22059.28%2,83539.82%640.90%1,38519.45%7,119Warren10,36549.23%10,44249.60%2461.17%-77-0.37%21,053Washington5,30029.43%12,50369.43%2051.14%-7,203-40.00%18,008Wayne6,30762.72%3,62436.04%1251.24%2,68326.68%10,056Webster4,29179.54%1,04319.33%611.13%3,24860.20%5,395Wilkinson1,32432.08%2,74966.61%541.31%-1,425-34.53%4,127Winston5,11255.35%4,04043.74%840.91%1,07211.61%9,236Yalobusha3,67156.17%2,78542.62%791.21%88613.56%6,535Yazoo4,83246.30%5,49652.66%1081.03%-664-6.36%10,436Totals756,76457.60%539,39841.06%17,5971.34%217,36616.55%1,313,759

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)

By congressional district Trump won three of four congressional districts.https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::a1d6a28b-18ed-4481-8ae0-c3deaf673308 District Trump Biden Representative 65% 34%Trent Kelly 35% 64%Bennie Thompson 60% 39%Michael Guest 68% 30%Steven Palazzo

Analysis Mississippi, a conservative state in the Deep South and greater Bible Belt, has not been won by a Democrat since fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976. Trump comfortably carried the state on election day by a 16.54% margin.

Despite Biden's loss statewide, he did manage to flip Warren County, home to Vicksburg, which had voted Democratic in 2012, but flipped back to the GOP column in 2016. In other elections, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith defeated Democrat Mike Espy by almost 10 points in the simultaneous senatorial race. Although Hyde-Smith underperformed Trump, she still won by a somewhat comfortable margin.

In referendums, a statewide referendum to approve a new flag after their controversial previous one, which contained the Confederate battle ensign, was relinquished. The new alternative passed with over 71% of the vote. Medical marijuana was approved in the state with more than 61% of voters supporting the legalization. The less restrictive of the medical marijuana bills, Initiative 65, passed with over 57% selecting the less restrictive of two options to legalize medical marijuana. The state also voted to eliminate the electoral college system that had been in place to elect statewide officials. Over 74% of Mississippians voted to remove the provision that a candidate must receive the support of a majority of Mississippi Legislature House districts.

This is the fourth consecutive election in which Mississippi voted more Democratic than each of its neighboring states, due to African Americans comprising 37.94% of its population. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Mississippi came from White born-again/Evangelical Christians, of whom 89% supported Trump. 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump 83%–16%. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississippians supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippians supported Biden.

See also United States presidential elections in Mississippi 2020 United States presidential election 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries 2020 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References

Further reading

External links

(state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)