2020 United States presidential election in Missouri

The 2020 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Missouri voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. Missouri had 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Trump won Missouri again by a 15.4% margin. This was 3.1% lower than his 2016 margin, but still a better performance in the state than that of any other Republican nominee since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump would win; during the 21st century Missouri has shifted away from being one of the most notable bellwether states towards becoming a reliably red state. Trump became the first incumbent president since Grover Cleveland in 1888 to win Missouri and lose re-election and the first-ever Republican incumbent to do so. This is also the first time since 1916 (and only the second time ever) that Missouri has voted more Republican than neighboring Kansas.

In this election Missouri voted nearly 20% more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Primary elections Democratic primary

Republican primary

Libertarian primary

+ Missouri Libertarian presidential primary, March 10, 2020CandidateVotesPercentage Jacob Hornberger1,683 74.6% Uncommitted57325.4% Total 2,256 100%

Green primary

General election

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportSeptember 10, 2020Inside ElectionsSeptember 4, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallJuly 14, 2020PoliticoSeptember 8, 2020RCPAugust 3, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.July 26, 2020CNNAugust 3, 2020The EconomistSeptember 2, 2020CBS NewsAugust 16, 2020270towinAugust 2, 2020ABC NewsJuly 31, 2020NPRAugust 3, 2020NBC NewsAugust 6, 2020538September 9, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to Win270 to WinOctober 13 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202043.7%51.3%5.0%Trump +7.6FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202043.6%51.6%4.8%Trump +8.0Average43.7%51.5%4.9%Trump +7.8

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20202,926 (LV)± 2.5%54%44% - - – –SwayableSwayable Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020487 (LV)± 6.6%55%43%2%0% – –Morning ConsultOct 22–31, 20201,109 (LV)± 3%52%43% - - – –Remington Research Group/Missouri ScoutRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutOct 28–29, 20201,010 (LV)± 3%50%45%2%1% –2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20204,759 (LV) –53%45% - - – –Remington Research Group/Missouri ScoutRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutOct 14–15, 20201,010 (LV)± 3%51%45% 1% 1% -2%YouGov/SLUYouGov/SLUSep 24 – Oct 7, 2020931 (LV)± 3.9%52%43% - -3%2%Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for MissouriGarin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for MissouriSep 28 – Oct 2, 2020600 (LV)± 4.1%50%48% - - – –Remington Research Group/Missouri ScoutRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutSep 30 – Oct 1, 2020980 (LV)± 3%51%46% - - –3%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20202,157 (LV) –53%45% - - –2%Remington Research Group/Missouri ScoutRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutSep 16–17, 20201,046 (LV)± 3%53%45% - - –2%We Ask AmericaWe Ask AmericaSep 1–3, 2020500 (LV)± 4.38%49%44% - -5%2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20201,863 (LV) –54%44% - - –2%Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar Group (R)Aug 26–28, 20201,015 (LV)± 2.99%52%41% 3% -1%3%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20202,261 (LV) –54%44% - - –2%YouGov/Saint Louis UniversityJun 23 – Jul 1, 2020900 (LV)± 3.95%50%43% - -4%4%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020868 (LV) –51%47% - - –1%Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Governor/Missouri ScoutGarin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Governor/Missouri Scout Jun 16–22, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46%48% - - – –Remington Research Group/Missouri ScoutRemington Research Group/Missouri Scout Jun 10–11, 2020 1,152 (LV) ± 2.9%51% 43% - - – 6%We Ask AmericaWe Ask America May 26–27, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38%48% 44% - - 3% 5%Remington Research Group/Missouri ScoutRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutFeb 26–27, 20201,050 (LV) –53%42% - - –5%American Viewpoint/Uniting MissouriAmerican Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri Jan 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) –50% 43% - - – 7%Remington Research GroupRemington Research Group Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 42% - - – 5%Remington Research GroupRemington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 43% - - – 6%Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) MichaelBloomberg (D) UndecidedRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutFeb 26–27, 20201,050 (LV) –51%39%10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) PeteButtigieg (D) UndecidedRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutFeb 26–27, 20201,050 (LV) –52%37%11%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) KamalaHarris (D) UndecidedRemington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 36% 12%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BetoO'Rourke (D) UndecidedRemington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 38% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D) UndecidedRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutFeb 26–27, 20201,050 (LV) –52%37%11%Remington Research Group Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 37% 9%Remington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 39% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D) UndecidedRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutFeb 26–27, 20201,050 (LV) –53%35%12%American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri Jan 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) –51% 41% 8%Remington Research Group Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 40% 6%Zogby AnalyticsZogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 46% 14%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericOpponent UndecidedRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutRemington Research Group/Missouri ScoutMarch 6–7, 2019984(LV) ± 3.3%53%46%2%

Results

By county