2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on May 15. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term. Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta, Green Party nominee Neal Gale, and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns. Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.

Democratic primary Candidates On ballot Bob Casey Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Republican primary Candidates On ballot Lou Barletta, U.S. Representative from Hazleton Jim Christiana, state representative from Beaver

Withdrew Paul Addis, businessman (running for PA-5) Cynthia E. Ayers, cyber security consultant and former National Security Agency employee Jeff Bartos, real estate developer (running for lieutenant governor) Paul DeLong, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2004 Bobby Lawrence, small business owner (endorsed Dale Kerns) Rick Saccone, state representative (ran for PA-18, ran for PA-14) Andrew Shecktor, Berwick Borough Councilman (running for PA-9)

Declined Mike Kelly, U.S. Representative Pat Meehan, former U.S. Representative Dave Reed, Majority Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error LouBarletta JimChristiana Other UndecidedSusquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana)Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana) April 2018 >400 – 32% 11% – 58%Bellwether Research (R-Addis)Bellwether Research (R-Addis) September 20–24, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 22% – <10% 60%

Results

Libertarian Party Dale Kerns ran unopposed for the Libertarian nomination and received the official nomination from the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party at the state convention on March 6, 2018. Candidates Nominee Dale Kerns, former Republican Eddystone Borough council member and board of directors member for Goodwill Industries

Green Party Candidates Nominee Neal Gale, clean energy consultant

General election Candidates Lou Barletta (R), U.S. Representative Bob Casey Jr. (D), incumbent senator Neal Gale (G), clean energy consultant Dale Kerns (L), former Eddystone Borough council member

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018CNN November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 5, 2018

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BobCasey Jr. (D) LouBarletta (R) Other UndecidedChange ResearchChange Research November 2–4, 2018 1,833 – 51% 44% 3%Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1% –Research Co.Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 56% 39% 1% 4%Muhlenberg CollegeMuhlenberg College October 28 – November 1, 2018 421 ± 5.5% 54% 40% – –Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College October 22–28, 2018 214 LV ± 9.5% 50% 35% – 14% 537 RV ± 6.0% 50% 31% 4%Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%; other with 1% 14%Morning ConsultMorning Consult October 1–2, 2018 1,188 ± 3.0% 47% 32% – 21%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College September 17–23, 2018 204 LV – 50% 33% – 15% 545 RV ± 6.1% 48% 30% 4%Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1% 20%IpsosIpsos September 12–20, 2018 1,080 ± 3.0% 53% 37% 3% 7%Muhlenberg CollegeMuhlenberg College September 13–19, 2018 404 ± 5.5% 53% 35% 7%Neal Gale (G) and Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, neither/other with 3% 6%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 12–13, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 38% 2% 8%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College August 20–26, 2018 222 LV – 47% 34% 1% 19% 511 RV ± 6.1% 48% 29% 3%Dale Kerns (L) and Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1% 20%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist August 12–16, 2018 713 ± 4.2% 53% 38% 1% 8%Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) August 13–15, 2018 2,012 ± 3.6% 47% 45% 2% 6%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 990 ± 4.5% 55% 41% – 5%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University June 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 32% 1% 21%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College June 4–10, 2018 472 ± 6.5% 44% 27% 1% 28%Muhlenberg CollegeMuhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 48% 32% 8% 18%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 423 ± 6.8% 43% 25% 2% 30%Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 1,056 ± 3.0% 54% 36% – 10%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 2,165 ± 3.8% 52% 43% – 5%

with Jim Christiana Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BobCasey Jr. (D) JimChristiana (R) Other UndecidedMuhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 48% 29% 3% 20% with generic Democrat and Republican Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GenericDemocrat GenericRepublican UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 1,056 ± 3.0% 53% 41% 7%

Results

Results by county County Bob Casey Jr.Democratic Lou Barletta Republican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Adams 14,880 38.054% 23,41959.892% 803 2.054% −8,539 −21.838% 39,102 Allegheny 355,907 65.7015%176,35132.5549% 9,445 1.7436% 179,556 33.1466% 541,703 Armstrong 8,065 28.3849%19,57568.8945% 773 2.7206% −11,510 −40.5096% 28,413 Beaver 34,442 50.92% 31,916 47.18% 1,284 1.90% 2,526 3.74% 68,884 Bedford 4,567 24.26% 14,044 74.61%2121.13% −9,477 −50.35% 18,823 Berks 73,714 51.00%68,15947.16% 2,660 1.84% 5,555 3.84% 144,533 Blair 14,599 33.82138% 27,826 64.46427% 740 1.71435% −13,227 −30.6429% 43,165 Bradford 6,926 34.07123% 13,032 64.10862% 370 1.82015% −6,106 −30.03739% 20,328 Bucks 165,408 56.20% 124,133 42.18% 4,776 1.62% 41,275 14.02% 294,317 Butler 31,010 39.009% 46,875 58.966% 1,610 2.025% −15,865 −19.957% 79,495 Cambria 21,590 43.52% 27,367 55.17% 650 1.31% −5,777 −11.65% 49,607 Cameron 653 37.00% 1,080 61.19% 32 1.81% −427 −24.19% 1,765 Carbon 8,739 38.71% 13,519 59.89% 316 1.40% −4,780 −31.46% 22,574 Centre 34,778 57.33% 24,332 40.11% 1,554 2.56% 10,446 17.22% 60,664 Chester 140,138 59.60% 92,380 39.29% 2,613 1.11% 47,758 20.31% 235,131 Clarion 4,924 35.09% 8,838 62.99% 269 1.92% −3,914 −27.90% 14,031 Clearfield 9,540 35.59% 16,852 62.87% 411 1.54% −7,312 −27.28% 26,803 Clinton 5,289 42.73% 6,869 55.49% 220 1.78% −1,580 −12.76% 18,448 Columbia 8,837 39.036% 13,437 59.356% 364 1.608% −4,600 −20.320% 22,638 Crawford 11,720 39.02% 17,813 59.31% 502 1.67% −6,093 −20.29% 30,035 Cumberland 47,738 45.726% 54,525 52.227% 2,137 2.047% −6,787 −6.501% 104,400 Dauphin 59,533 54.764% 47,152 43.375% 2,023 1.861% 12,381 11.389% 108,708 Delaware 163,216 65.03% 84,423 33.63% 3,363 1.34% 78,793 31.40% 251,002 Elk 4,498 39.87% 6,610 58.59% 174 1.54% −2,112 −18.72% 11,282 Erie 58,906 58.39% 40,348 39.99% 1,635 1.62% 18,558 18.40% 100,889 Fayette 19,563 48.06% 20,514 50.40% 628 1.54% −951 −2.34% 40,735 Forest 693 35.87% 1,201 62.16% 38 1.97% −508 −26.29% 1,932 Franklin 17,385 31.59% 36,735 66.76% 907 1.65% −19,350 −35.17% 55,027 Fulton 1,061 20.00% 4,173 78.68% 70 1.32% −3,112 −58.68% 5,304 Greene 5,819 46.8217% 6,422 51.6736% 187 1.5047% −603 −4.8519% 12,428 Huntingdon 5,126 32.2167% 10,491 65.9355% 294 1.8478% −5,365 −33.7188% 15,911 Indiana 12,702 42.995% 16,314 55.221% 527 1.784% −3,612 −12.226% 29,543 Jefferson 4,437 28.49% 10,872 69.80% 267 1.71% −6,435 −41.31% 15,576 Juniata 2,412 28.48% 5,853 69.12% 203 2.40% −3,441 −40.64% 8,468 Lackawanna 51,444 61.057% 31,922 37.887% 890 1.056% 19,522 23.170% 84,256 Lancaster 90,521 44.73% 107,454 53.10% 4,389 2.17% −16,933 −8.37% 202,364 Lawrence 14,324 44.56% 17,375 54.05% 448 1.39% −3,051 −9.49% 32,147 Lebanon 18,368 37.37% 29,836 60.71% 945 1.92% −11,468 −23.34% 49,149 Lehigh 73,632 57.33% 52,576 40.93% 2,230 1.74% 21,056 16.40% 128,438 Luzerne 49,200 45.43% 58,040 53.59% 1,056 0.98% −8,840 −8.16% 108,296 Lycoming 13,893 33.82% 26,488 64.48% 699 1.70% −12,595 −30.66% 41,080 McKean 3,972 31.8934% 8,285 66.5248% 197 1.5818% −4,313 −34.6314% 12,454 Mercer 18,136 44.13% 22,290 54.24% 671 1.63% −4,154 −10.11% 41,097 Mifflin 3,934 28.607% 9,564 69.546% 254 1.847% −5,630 −40.939% 13,752 Monroe 30,626 55.27% 23,968 43.25% 818 1.48% 6,658 12.02% 55,412 Montgomery 248,454 65.23% 126,666 33.26% 5,745 1.51% 121,788 31.97% 380,865 Montour 2,966 42.1666% 3,943 56.0563% 125 1.7771% −977 −13.8897% 7,034 Northampton 62,275 54.33% 50,385 43.96% 1,956 1.71% 11,890 10.37% 124,550 Northumberland 10,524 36.45% 17,926 62.08% 425 1.47% −−7,402 −25.63% 28,875 Perry 5,186 30.19% 11,607 67.57% 385 2.24% −6,421 −37.38% 17,178 Philadelphia 481,467 86.83% 66,653 12.02% 6,387 1.15% 414,814 74.81% 554,507 Pike 8,696 41.82% 11,772 56.61% 326 1.57% −3,076 −14.79% 20,794 Potter 1,537 24.78% 4,564 73.59% 101 1.63% −3,027 −48.81% 6,202 Schuylkill 17,691 36.22% 30,452 62.35% 699 1.43% −12,761 −26.13% 48,842 Snyder 4,322 32.27% 8,826 65.90% 245 1.83% −4,504 −33.63% 28,637 Somerset 9,322 32.5523% 18,896 65.9846% 419 1.4631% −9,574 −33.4323% 28,637 Sullivan 962 35.24%1,72063.00% 48 1.76% −758 −27.76% 2,730 Susquehanna 5,521 34.69% 10,112 63.53% 283 1.78% −4,591 −28.84% 15,916 Tioga 4,145 28.19% 10,242 69.65% 317 2.16% −6,097 −41.46% 14,704 Union 5,901 40.863% 8,317 57.593% 223 1.544% −2,416 −16.730% 14,441 Venango 6,945 37.5162% 11,210 60.5553% 357 1.9285% −4,265 −23.0391% 18,512 Warren 5,390 37.51% 8,734 60.78% 245 1.71% −3,344 −23.27% 14,369 Washington 39,220 47.54% 41,958 50.86% 1,318 1.60% −2,738 −3.32% 82,496 Wayne 7,625 37.82% 12,269 60.85% 268 1.33% −4,644 −23.03% 20,162 Westmoreland 63,778 43.91% 79,078 54.44% 2,402 1.65% −15,300 −10.53% 145,258 Wyoming 3,868 36.39443% 6,582 61.93075% 178 1.67482% −2,714 −25.53632% 10,628 York 69,272 41.03% 95,814 56.76% 3,726 2.21% −26,542 −15.73% 168,812Totals 2,792,437 55.74% 2,134,848 42.62% 82,115 1.64% 657,589 13.12% 5,009,400

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown) Luzerne (largest city: Wilkes-Barre)

By congressional district Casey won 11 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st and 10th districts, which elected Republicans to the House. District Casey Jr. Barletta Representative1st 57% 42%Brian Fitzpatrick2nd79%20%Brendan Boyle3rd 93% 6%Dwight Evans4th 64% 34%Madeleine Dean5th 68% 31%Mary Gay Scanlon6th 59% 39%Chrissy Houlahan7th 56% 42%Susan Wild8th52%47%Matt Cartwright9th 40% 59%Dan Meuser10th 50% 48%Scott Perry11th 42% 56%Lloyd Smucker12th 38% 60%Tom Marino13th 44% 64%John Joyce14th 46% 52%Guy Reschenthaler15th 38% 60%Glenn Thompson16th 48% 50%Mike Kelly17th 57% 41%Conor Lamb18th 71% 27%Mike Doyle

See also 2018 United States Senate elections 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

References

External links Candidates at Vote Smart Candidates at Ballotpedia Campaign finance at FEC Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites Lou Barletta (R) for Senate Bob Casey (D) for Senate Dale Kerns (L) for Senate Neal Gale (G) for Senate