2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee

The 2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican senator Bob Corker opted to retire instead of running for a third term. Republican U.S. representative Marsha Blackburn won the open seat, defeating former Democratic governor Phil Bredesen. The primaries took place on August 2, 2018, with Blackburn and Bredesen winning their respective party nominations.

Early in the campaign, Bob Corker said that Blackburn's opponent, Democrat Phil Bredesen, was "a very good mayor, a very good governor, a very good businessperson", that he had "real appeal" and "crossover appeal", and that the two of them had cooperated well over the years. However, Corker said he would vote for Blackburn and donate to her campaign, and questioned whether Bredesen would be able to win a Senate seat in a red state like Tennessee. After Corker's praise for Bredesen, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell warned Corker that such comments could cost the Republican Party its Senate majority. Shortly after Corker's comments, Trump tweeted an endorsement of Blackburn.

In October 2018, singer-songwriter Taylor Swift, who cast her ballot in Tennessee in this midterm, endorsed Bredesen. The endorsement was notable given that Swift had previously been publicly apolitical, but spoke out because Blackburn's voting record in Congress "appalled" and "terrified" her. Swift shared a link to the nonpartisan voter registration website Vote.org, which saw a significant spike in page views and new registrations. Donald Trump criticized Swift's endorsement.

This election was expected to be among the most competitive Senate races in 2018, with CNN calling it the single most important Senate race in the country. Polls showed the race as close until the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh started, which many Tennesseans believed the Democratic Party handled poorly. The hearings also energized Republican voters and helped Blackburn pull ahead of Bredesen in polls. Bredesen also announced his support for Kavanaugh, which some believe cost him supporters.

This was Tennessee's closest Senate race since 2006, with Blackburn winning by a 10.8% margin. Bredesen aimed to be the fourth former governor of Tennessee to be elected to the U.S Senate after Andrew Johnson, Isham G. Harris, and Lamar Alexander.

Republican primary Candidates

Nominee Marsha Blackburn, U.S. representative from

Eliminated in primary Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver

Withdrawn Bob Corker, incumbent U.S. senator Larry Crim, perennial candidate Stephen Fincher, former U.S. representative Andy Ogles, former director of the Tennessee chapter of Americans for Prosperity Rolando Toyos, ophthalmologist and candidate for the Shelby County Commission in 2010

Declined Mae Beavers, former state senator (previously ran for governor) Diane Black, U.S. representative from (ran for governor) Randy Boyd, former commissioner of the Department of Economic and Community Development (ran for governor) Tim Burchett, Knox County mayor (ran for U.S. House) Joe Carr, former state representative, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 and candidate for TN-06 in 2016 Chuck Fleischmann, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Mark Green, state senator (ran for U.S. House) Beth Harwell, speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives (ran for governor) Bill Haslam, governor of Tennessee David Kustoff, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Bill Lee, businessman (ran for governor) Peyton Manning, retired football player Randy McNally, lieutenant governor of Tennessee Ron Ramsey, former lieutenant governor and candidate for governor in 2010

Speculation surrounding Senator Corker On September 26, 2017, Republican senator Bob Corker announced that he would not seek another term in 2018. Many called on Corker to reverse his decision to retire. Former U.S. representative Fincher dropped out of the race, calling on Corker to jump back in and challenge U.S. representative Blackburn for the GOP nomination. Fincher said in a statement that the GOP should unite "behind a candidate who can win" the general election. Blackburn said she would remain in the race even if Corker reversed his decision. Amid the speculation about Corker's decision, many of Tennessee's Republican politicians, including many in the Tennessee General Assembly, reiterated their support for Blackburn. Corker's chief of staff announced on February 27, 2018, that Corker would stick with his plan to retire.

Endorsements Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarshaBlackburn StephenFincher RolandoToyos UndecidedWPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) January 14–15, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 66% 13% – 21%Triton Polling & Research (R) December 12–18, 2017 1,028 ± 3.1% 58% 11% 4% 27%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarshaBlackburn BobCorker StephenFincher UndecidedRagnar Research Partners (R-AFFPA) February 14–19, 2018 926 ± 3.0% 48% 29% – 23%WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) February 13–15, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 55% 26% – 19%Victory Phones (R-SCF) February 12–13, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 26% 9% 16%WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) January 14–15, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 63% 25% – 12%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BobCorker GenericOpponent UndecidedTriton/Tennessee StarTriton/Tennessee Star May 31 - June 5, 2018 1,007 ± 3.1%41.6%41.6%17.3%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates

Nominee Phil Bredesen, former governor of Tennessee and former mayor of Nashville

Eliminated in primary Gary Davis John Wolfe Jr., attorney and perennial candidate

Withdrawn Bill Bailey, teaching assistant and retired UPS trailer mechanic James Mackler, attorney and veteran

Declined Raumesh Akbari, state representative Megan Barry, former mayor of Nashville Andy Berke, mayor of Chattanooga John Ray Clemmons, state representative Jim Cooper, U.S. representative from and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1994 special election (ran for re-election) Karl Dean, former mayor of Nashville (ran for governor) Craig Fitzhugh, minority leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives (ran for governor) Bill Freeman, businessman and candidate for mayor of Nashville in 2015 Lee Harris, minority leader of the Tennessee Senate Tim McGraw, country musician, songwriter and actor Jeff Yarbro, state senator

Results

Independents

Candidates

Declared Trudy Austin John Carico Dean Hill, US Army veteran, business owner, realtor Kevin Lee McCants Breton Phillips Kris L. Todd

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018NYTNovember 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018CNNNovember 5, 2018RealClearPoliticsNovember 5, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Politico November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018

Debates Complete video of debate, September 25, 2018 Complete video of debate, October 10, 2018

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of Sep 30, 2018Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on handMarsha Blackburn (R)$11,568,094$9,062,332$2,505,762Phil Bredesen (D)$14,868,198$11,693,910$3,174,289Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarshaBlackburn (R) PhilBredesen (D) Other UndecidedTargoz Market Research October 28–31, 2018 480 – 49% 49% – 2%Emerson College October 28–30, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 52% 44% 2% 3%FOX News October 27–30, 2018 718 LV ± 3.5% 50% 41% 3% 5% 850 RV ± 3.0% 48% 40% 3% 8%Vox Populi Polling October 27–29, 2018 780 ± 3.5% 53% 47% – –CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 764 LV ± 4.3% 49% 45% 0% 3% 871 RV ± 4.0% 47% 46% 0% 4%East Tennessee State University October 22–29, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 44% 44% – –Cygnal (R)Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 497 ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% 4%NBC News/Marist October 23–27, 2018 471 LV ± 5.7% 51% 46% 1% 3% 764 RV ± 4.4% 49% 46% 1% 3%Vanderbilt University/SSRS October 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.9% 43% 44% 1% 8%Targoz Market Research October 9–12, 2018 558 LV – 52% 48% – – 801 RV – 44% 45% – 11%NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 593 ± 4.2% 54% 40% – 6%Ipsos October 4–11, 2018 1,108 ± 3.4% 47% 44% 3% 6%YouGov October 2–5, 2018 871 ± 3.6% 50% 42% 2% 6%FOX News September 29 – October 2, 2018 666 LV ± 3.5% 48% 43% 3% 7% 806 RV ± 3.5% 47% 41% 3% 8%Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen) September 23–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – –SurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018 1,609 ± 3.3% 42% 42% – 15%Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 567 ± 4.1% 49% 51% – –CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 723 LV ± 4.3% 45% 50% 0% 3% 852 RV ± 3.9% 42% 50% 0% 5%Triton Polling & Research (R) September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 48% 45% – 7%FOX News September 8–11, 2018 686 LV ± 3.5% 47% 44% 1% 8% 809 RV ± 3.5% 45% 43% 2% 9%NBC News/Marist August 25–28, 2018 538 LV ± 5.1% 46% 48% <1% 5% 730 RV ± 4.5% 44% 48% <1% 7%Gravis Marketing August 9–11, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 48% 44% – 8%Emerson College July 11–14, 2018 657 ± 4.1% 37% 43% 5% 17%Public Policy Polling (D-Duty and Country Pac) July 10–11, 2018 583 ± 4.1% 41% 44% – 15%WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) July 9–11, 2018 551 ± 4.2% 38% 35% – 11%SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,010 ± 4.5% 55% 41% – 4%Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter) April 30 – May 1, 2018 609 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – –SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,638 ± 4.0% 47% 48% – 5%Mason-Dixon April 17–19, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11%Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen) April 9–11, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8%Middle Tennessee State University March 22–29, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 35% 45% – 17%Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 1,014 ± 3.1% 41% 46% – 13%WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) February 13–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 44% 39% – 17%Public Opinion Strategies (R) January 26–29, 2018 – – 45% 47% – 8%Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 51% 40% – 10%WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) December 13–14 & 17, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 43% 34% – 23%Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 40% 42% – 18%Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC) October 20–22, 2017 601 ± 4.1% 41% 46% – 13%

with generic Republican and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GenericRepublican GenericDemocrat Other UndecidedTriton Polling & Research (R) September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 52% 41% – 7%Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 1,014 ± 3.1% 51% 41% – 8%

with Bob Corker Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BobCorker (R) PhilBredesen (D) UndecidedWPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) February 13–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 35% 44% 21%

with Stephen Fincher Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error StephenFincher (R) PhilBredesen (D) UndecidedTriton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,004 ± 3.1% 38% 42% 20%WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) December 13–14 and 17, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 30% 42% 28%Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 38% 42% 20%

with Clay Travis Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarshaBlackburn (R) PhilBredesen (D) ClayTravis (I) UndecidedTriton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,004 ± 3.1% 48% 37% 6% 10%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error StephenFincher (R) PhilBredesen (D) ClayTravis (I) UndecidedTriton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,004 ± 3.1% 35% 39% 10% 16%

with Bob Corker and generic Democrat {| class="wikitable" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)administered ! Samplesize ! Marginof error ! style="width:100px;"| BobCorker (R) ! style="width:100px;"| GenericDemocrat ! Undecided |- |Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) | align=center| August 11–13, 2017 | align=center| 663 | align=center| ± 3.6% | align=center| 47%