Opinion polling for the 2006 Peruvian general election

Opinion polling for the 2006 Peruvian national election was carried out by pollsters authorized by the National Election Jury both in the races for the Presidency and Congress.

Several candidates expressed skepticism about poll results and even accused the pollsters of deliberately lying. The Peruvian Association of Market Research (Asociación Peruana de Investigación de Mercados, APEIM) rejected such criticism and demanded formal apologies by those who accused the companies. APEIM also criticized the pollster IDICE, not belonging to the association, for critical flaws in its methodology. The company's results are nevertheless included in the section below.

Also, it is illegal to publish electoral opinion polls in Peru during the week prior to an election. Pollsters, however, released their results to the foreign press during the week before the First Round and these were widely available on the Internet. This drew criticism from electoral authorities, even though no law was technically broken.

Poll results

The following is a collection of polls relating to the 2006 Peruvian national election. Only polls conducted nationwide are included, though some have an urban bias. The results below only consider the eventual top five presidential candidates, top six congressional lists and, in the case of the hypothetical runoff, matchups between the top three presidential candidates. Little information is available on the other options.

The dates indicate when each survey was conducted. If the sources are not clear about the precise dates, either the month or the date of publication is indicated. In the latter case, the date is marked with a (p).

Unless stated otherwise, entries correspond to percentages over the total number of votes. When reported in terms of "valid" votes, the percentages are included in parentheses. Valid votes are those cast for exactly one presidential ticket or one congressional party list, thus excluding blank, multiple-party votes and undecided voters. The official results consider only valid votes.

Entries with "n/a" correspond to instances in which the relevant question was not asked, the option was not given, or the quantity was not deemed significant enough when the survey was published.

The abbreviations used for parties are as follows (coalition members are indented): UPP - Union for Peru (Unión por el Perú) PNP - Peruvian Nationalist Party (Partido Nacionalista Peruano) PAP - Peruvian Aprista Party (Partido Aprista Peruano) UN - National Unity (Unidad Nacional) SN - National Solidarity (Solidaridad Nacional) AF - Alliance for the Future (Alianza por el Futuro) C90 - Change 90 (Cambio 90) NM - New Majority (Nueva Mayoría) FC - Center Front (Frente de Centro) AP - Popular Action (Acción Popular) SP - We Are Peru (Somos Perú) PP - Peru Possible (Perú Posible) SC - Sí Cumple

The abbreviations used for pollsters are: Apoyo - Apoyo Opinión y Mercado AyC - Analistas y Consultores Conecta - Conecta Asociados CPI - Compañía Peruana de Investigación de Mercados y Opinión Pública Datum - Datum Internacional IDICE - Instituto de Desarrollo e Investigación de Ciencias Económicas IMA - IMA Estudios de Marketing POP - Peruana de Opinión Pública PUCP - Instituto de Opinión Pública, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú UAP - Universidad Alas Peruanas UL - Grupo de Opinión Pública, Universidad de Lima UNI - Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería

Presidential Election

The deadline for the registration of presidential candidates was 9 January 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative in nature, since the final set of options was not yet known before then.

First round

Dates Pollster Source O. Humala (UPP) A. García (PAP) L. Flores (UN) M. Chávez (AF) V. Paniagua (FC)Jan 2005Datum 3%18%17%n/a24%1-8 April 2005CPI 2.8%17.5%16.0%7.2%14.7%Apr 2005Apoyo5%21%17%n/a23%May 2005Datum 3%19%23%n/a29%June 2005Datum 5%20%19%n/a16%6–12 July 2005CPI 2.3%15.5%17.5%9.6%12.8%Aug 2005Apoyo7%18%22%n/a18%Aug 2005Datum 5%20%26%n/a19%Sep 2005Datum 5%18%23%n/a13%10-14 October 2005Apoyo8%17%27%n/a15%13-23 October 2005IDICE 9.1%23.6%26.5%n/a7.6%22-28 October 2005CPI 5.1%12.0%27.6%9.5%10.0%10-11 November 2005Apoyo 11%17%28%n/a17%12-15 November 2005Datum 13%16%30%n/a15%19-23 November 2005CPI 15.0%13.4%25.6%1.5%11.3%3-4 December 2005UL 14.6%16.2%25.6%2.4%8.3%3-8 December 2005Apoyo 22%16%25%n/a14%16-19 November 2005Datum 23%15%26%1%12%19-23 December 2005IDICE 21.7%19.8%21.2%n/a16.7%9-12 January 2006IDICE 26.3%20.3%20.7%7.0%11.2%11-13 January 2006Apoyo28%15%25%2%10%13-14 January 2006Datum 25%14%26%n/a11%16-19 January 2006POP 25%14%30%2%11%20-22 January 2006UL 16.8%11.9%28.1%2.5%7.2%21-23 January 2006AyC19.5%14.6%30.9%1.8%14.2%21-24 January 2006CPI 18.2%13.1%28.8%n/a6.3%25-27 January 2006Apoyo22%13%30%n/a8%21-28 January 2006IMA 18.7%14.7%27.2%4.2%5.5%3-5 February 2006IDICE 18.4%20.8%27.2%8.1%6.1%8-10 February 2006Apoyo 20% (25%)13% (17%)27% (35%)4% (6%)7% (8%)10-11 February 2006Datum 24% (28%)15% (18%)29% (34%)4% (5%)8% (10%)11-15 February 2006UAP 21.4%16.8%23.3%3.5%6.0%15-17 February 2006Conecta 18.3% (18.3%)16.0% (20.5%)27.3% (34.8%)3.5% (4.4%)8.6% (11.0%)16-18 February 2006AyC 19.4%16.3%29.2%3.8%4.9%22-24 February 2006Apoyo19% (26%)16% (22%)24% (33%)3% (4%)5% (7%)24-26 February 2006PUCP 20% (25%)14% (18%)29% (35%)4% (5%)6% (8%)24-26 February 2006UL 20.6% (27.6%)15.3% (20.5%)25.1% (33.6%)3.6% (4.8%)6.4% (8.5%)24-26 February 2006IDICE 19.3% 22.4%24.3%7.1%5.6%26 February 2006 (p)POP 22% 16%30%4%n/a23-27 February 2006CPI (25.5%)(21.5%)(34.1%)(4.9%)(7.8%)24 February – 2 March 2006IMA 21.6% 20.1%26.9%2.8%4.5%8-10 March 2006Apoyo22% (30%)16% (22%)23% (31%)4% (5%)4% (5%)10-12 March 2006Datum 26% 19%27%4%8%11-13 March 2006IDICE 23.3%22.8%23.6%5.0%6.1%15-17 March 2006Apoyo 27% (32%)17% (21%)23% (28%)6% (6%)6% (7%)15-19 March 2006CPI (31.6%)(21.6%)(21.9%)(5.5%)(6.0%)18-19 March 2006UNI 28.8%16.3%24.8%3.8%5.3%19 March 2006UAP 28.9%16.9%23.1%5.5%5.9%20-22 March 2006IDICE 26.8%24.4%21.6%5.7%4.7%22-24 March 2006Apoyo27% (33%)18% (22%)22% (27%)6% (7%)5% (6%)23-25 March 2006Conecta 30.4% (30.4%)18.3% (20.6%)24.5% (27.7%)5.1% (5.7%)4.4% (5.0%)24-26 March 2006PUCP 27% (31%)18% (20%)24% (27%)6% (7%)6% (7%)24-26 March 2006UL 28.2% (32.6%)19.9% (22.7%)22.9% (26.1%)5.4% (6.3%)4.9% (5.6%)27 March 2006 (p)Datum 31%21%26%6%5%27-31 March 2006CPI (31.5%)(23.1%)(26.8%)(5.9%)(6.7%)27-31 March 2006Apoyo 26% (31%)19% (23%)22% (26%)6% (7%)5% (6%)4-6 April 2006IDICE 27.7% (31.8%)22.6% (25.9%)19.6% (22.5%)3.9% (4.5%)7.5% (8.6%)5 April 2006Datum (26%)(24%)(24%)(8%)(7%)5 April 2006UL 26.2% (29.2%)19.7% (21.9%)23.0% (25.6%)7.4% (8.3%)6.4% (7.2%)8 April 2006Apoyo 24% (27%)21% (23%)21% (23%)7% (7%)7% (8%)

Hypothetical Runoff Election (polls before First Round)

Dates Pollster Source O. Humala (UPP) vs A. García (PAP) O. Humala (UPP) vs L. Flores (UN) A. García (PAP) vs L. Flores (UN)13-23 October 2005IDICE n/an/a35.4% - 42.1%22-28 October 2005CPI n/an/a23.6% - 51.5%10-11 November 2005Apoyo 30% - 31%23% - 58%23% - 56%12-15 November 2005Datum n/a23% - 58%23% - 54%3-4 December 2005UL 33.0% - 34.5%27.1% - 60.4%25.9% - 59.6%3-8 December 2005Apoyo 44% - 31%35% - 50%26% - 54%16-19 December 2005Datum n/a34% - 50%24% - 53%11-13 January 2006Apoyo44% - 29%39% - 46%23% - 56%13-14 January 2006Datum 41% - 28%35% - 50%25% - 52%20-22 January 2006UL 34.2% – 32.9%27.7% - 51.1%22.6% - 60.0%25-27 January 2006Apoyo40% - 30%34% - 52%22% - 57%21-28 January 2006IMA 31.5% - 29.2%27.5% - 46.0%22.9% - 44.6%8-10 February 2006Apoyo 37% - 35% (51% - 49%)33% - 52% (39% - 61%)27% - 54% (33% - 67%)10-11 February 2006Datum n/a34% - 50%25% - 54%11-15 February 2006UAP 34.9% - 28.3%32.6% - 42.8%24.8% - 44.6%15-17 February 2006Conecta 32% - 29%31% - 48%26% - 45%22-24 February 2006Apoyo36% – 37% (50% - 50%)34% - 50% (40% - 60%)31% - 50% (38% - 62%)23-27 February 2006CPI 34.8% - 37.5% (48.1% - 51.9%)31.1% - 48.6% (39.0% - 61.0%)29.0% - 47.9% (37.7% - 62.3%)24-26 February 2006PUCP 33.7% – 33.5%30.2% - 50.5%26.8% - 51.1%24-26 February 2006UL 36.7% – 32.3%33.3% - 49.6%27.1% - 52.2%24 February – 2 March 2006IMA 32.3% - 33.8%28.8% - 43.1%28.4% - 40.9%8-10 March 2006Apoyo41% - 36% (52% - 47%)39% - 46% (46% - 54%)32% - 47% (41% - 59%)10-12 March 2006Datum 40% - 33%36% - 47%29% - 48%15-17 March 2006Apoyo 45% - 33% (57% - 43%)43% - 44% (50% - 50%)33% - 46% (41% - 59%)15-19 March 2006CPI 38.5% – 32.0% (54.3% - 45.7%)36.6% - 41.5% (47.1% - 52.9%)29.0% - 43.2% (40.5% - 59.5%)18-19 March 2006UNI 39.1% - 29.6%37.5% - 40.4%28.3% - 42.9%19 March 2006UAP 39.5% - 29.5%38.8% - 38.8%28.2% - 41.2%22-24 March 2006Apoyo42% - 39% (52% - 48%)40% - 47% (47% - 53%)35% - 46% (43% - 57%)23-25 March 2006Conecta 41% - 33%39% - 41%31% - 41%24-26 March 2006PUCP (53% - 47%)(45% - 55%)(41% - 59%)24-26 March 2006UL 43.9% - 36.7%41.3% - 46.6%31.5% - 48.0%27-31 March 2006Apoyo 39% - 37% (51% - 49%)38% - 46% (45% - 55%)32% - 45% (42% - 58%)27-31 March 2006CPI (49.7 - 50.3%)(44.9% - 55.1%)(41.5% - 58.5%)5 April 2006UL 37.7% - 41.3%37.3% - 48.6%n/a

Runoff Election (polls after First Round)

Dates Pollster Source Ollanta Humala (UPP) Alan García (PAP)19-21 April 2006Datum 37% (46%)43% (54%)29 April – 1 May 2006Datum 34% (44%)43% (56%)28 April – 3 May 2006IDICE 34.8% (45.9%)42.5% (55.0%)19-21 April 2006Apoyo 34% (43%)44% (57%)2–7 May 2006CPI (38.6%)(61.4%)6–8 May 2006Datum 33% (43%)44% (57%)10–12 May 2006Apoyo 34% (44%)43% (56%)12–14 May 2006UL 31.1% (38.1%)50.6% (61.9%)18–19 May 2006Datum 35% (42%)47% (58%)18–21 May 2006PUCP 35% (46%)42% (54%)19–21 May 2006UL 31.3% (38.8%)49.3% (61.2%)24–25 May 2006CPI (40.1%)(59.9%)23–26 May 2006IDICE 36.8% (36.8%)48.2% (56.7%)24–26 May 2006Apoyo 36% (45%)44% (55%)25–26 May 2006Datum (42%)(58%)27 May 2006 (p)Conecta 34.7% (43.1%)45.8% (56.9%)30–31 May 2006Apoyo (47%)(53%)31 May 2006Datum (43%)(57%)31 May 2006UL (44.1%)(55.9%)31 May – 1 June 2006CPI (46.2%)(53.8%)3 June 2006Apoyo (47%)(53%)

Congressional Election

The deadline for the registration of congressional candidates was 8 February 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative. For many of these early polls, several coalitions were not even official, so some responses included parties which did not end up running by themselves. These are included in some entries below, along with the appropriate abbreviation as outlined above.

In particular, while the Sí Cumple party did not officially belong to Alliance for the Future, pollsters themselves often lumped it together with the other fujimorista movements before the AF coalition came into being, largely due to the perception that the same politicians belonged to these parties. This is not technically correct, but Sí Cumple results are still included below, though with an asterisk to make the difference clear (SC*).

Projected seat allocation in Congress, out of 120 seats, are included in square brackets when available.