Just after dusk on December 9, 2023, a significant and deadly tornado tore across the northern metro of Nashville, the capital and most populous city of the U.S. state of Tennessee. The EF2 tornado, known as the Hendersonville tornado by locals, was part of a late-season tornado outbreak during the 2023 season that affected mainly Tennessee, but also parts of Kentucky and Mississippi on the 9th. It was one of two deadly tornadoes to occur, with the other being an EF3 tornado that struck Clarksville earlier that day in northwestern Tennessee.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's finalized damage survey by county:
In its wake, the tornado carved a path long, and wide through the cities of Madison, Hendersonville and Gallatin across Davidson, Sumner and Trousdale Counties. Winds of were estimated at its peak in Hendersonville as the tornado traversed through. Three people were killed during the event, while 22 were injured. Extensive damage was caused by the tornado, with monetary costs estimated at $20.2 million (2023 USD) throughout the entire track. Within the damage track in Madison, the tornado caused a massive explosion at an electrical substation, resulting in a fireball that temporarily evaporated the tornado's condensation funnel and was widely recorded on video. Meteorological synoptics
Episode narrative
Broader perspective
A day prior at 01:00 UTC (7:00 PM CST) on December 8, 2023, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a marginal risk of severe storms from northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the Missouri Ozarks, with nearly all of Arkansas included. A 5% risk for hail covered the area, where as a 2% tornado risk was in place for west-central Arkansas. At 13:00 UTC (7:00 AM CST) on December 9, the SPC drastically upgraded their outlooks as a large slight risk zone for a 15% wind risk covered both the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. A large 5% tornado risk was issued over southeastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, north-central Mississippi, northern Alabama, northwestern Georgia, west-central Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. A 15% hail risk was also in place from northeastern Louisiana to extreme southwestern Kentucky. In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, a positively-tilted trough amplified and moved to the east across the central continental United States in response to two shortwave troughs that accompanied it. One of the troughs had a northern stream perturbation, manifesting as a closed cyclone from Nebraska to Minnesota. It was expected that this trough would devolve into an open-wave across Wisconsin later in the day. A second trough consisted of an elongated vorticity banner and a jet streak, which were present over the Four Corners region. Forecasters noted that this specific trough to the south would reorient into a positively-tilted one as it moved and positioned itself from southeastern New Mexico to southeastern Kansas. Changing from this, the second southern trough would likely absorb the southern portion of the first northern trough's vorticity field. The reformed perturbation would extend from south-central Texas, to central Arkansas to southern Illinois for the following day at 12:00 UTC (6:00 AM CST) December 10. Surface analysis at 11:00 UTC (5:00 AM CST) on December 9 revealed a weakened low-pressure area, with a cold front draped southwestward to a triple point over the Ozarks to the Trans-Pecos region. The cold front was forecasted to extend throughout much of the United States north to south, and move towards the portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by 12:00 UTC (6:00 AM CST).
Local view
For the area within the slight risk, bands of thunderstorms were expected to form ahead the cold front as early as midday in eastern Arkansas. As activity would set into the later hours, damaging wind gusts, sporadic hail to varying levels and some tornadoes were possible. The Mid-south and Tennessee River Valley areas were considered relatively maximized due to favorable supercell parameter space. However, there were concerns regarding storm modes, with a potential of messy and convective modes with a short duration of supercell thunderstorm production noted through the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Despite many questionable events at play for a conditional risk, this was not to rule out the possibility of a longer-lived tornado threat. Deep wind shear and hodographs were foreseen strengthening northward, with approximately 200-300 M/S2 of storm relative helicity being largely present around the area where the warm front was stationed within Tennessee and Mississippi, prior to the arrival of storms from eastern Arkansas. Mixed layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) between 500 and 800 J/KG and 1500-2000 J/KG were predicted to be present over the Ohio River Valley and Mississippi River Delta regions, providing enough fuel for supercell activity. Dew points were to be within the 50° degree Fahrenheit (10° Celsius) range and relatively colder temperatures presented themselves over the Ohio River Valley.
Event narrative In midst of ongoing discrete thunderstorms on December 9, the SPC upgraded the forecasting outlooks to an enhanced risk for tornadoes at 20:00 UTC (2:00 PM CST), as a 10% hatched tornado risk was issued from mainly northern Mississippi to areas southwest of Nashville, Tennessee. These storms remained discrete as they developed in a pocket of instability adjacent to the low-level wind shear over the enhanced risk. A favorable storm mode and effective storm relative helicity values of 150-200 M/S2 posed a damaging tornado threat for the area through the later hours of the day. Though the greatest area of risk remained small, an isolated strong tornado or two were not to be precluded within the warm sector.
Tornado summary
Formation in the Nashville metropolitan area
Madison area
After another EF2 tornado struck in Dickson County, the parent supercell crossed over into Davidson County and spooled up a second tornado at 4:39 PM CST (22:39 UTC), on the eastern flank of I-24 in the northern Nashville metro. Not long after it began, the tornado caused its first instance of damage, subsequently rated EF0. Intensification ensued as the storm crossed into Bellshire Estates, with EF1 damage inflicted to structures, including a motel along US 41. Further moderate damage continued as the tornado entered into the Kemper Heights area of Madison, with neighborhoods between TN 45 and Westchester Drive impacted. Upon crossing TN 45 and west of the interchange at I-65, several trees were snapped or uprooted by the tornado at EF1 intensity. Up ahead, the Morning View, Haven Acres and Heritage Square areas were struck at EF0-EF1 intensity. Between East Campbell Road to the north and Nesbitt Lane to the south, the tornado intensified to EF2 intensity for the first time as it destroyed multiple mobile homes in the area, resulting in the death of three people, including a child. Across East Campbell Road to the north, an NES electrical substation was hit by the tornado at mid-range EF2 intensity with winds of , causing a large explosion which briefly evaporated the tornado's condensation funnel.
After causing the explosion, the tornado crossed over TN 6 and began to parallel Pierce Road, impacting houses and apartments along at EF1 intensity, before intensifying and causing instances of EF2 damage for a second time, as one apartment complex was impacted with estimated winds of . EF2 damage occurred to the east of Pierce Road as well, as several residences along Palmer Avenue were significantly damaged, including one complex that was slid off its foundation by winds of . The tornado weakened down to EF1 intensity as it mainly uprooted trees after crossing Pierce Road, before regaining EF2 status yet again for a third time as it impacted two cul-de-sacs along Stoney River Lane with winds of . The tornado dropped down to EF1 intensity as it began to enter the industrial section of Madison, damaging several warehouses before yet again strengthening to EF2 intensity for a fourth time. Here along Myatt Drive, two large metal buildings received considerable amounts of damage, after their columns' anchorage failed to resist the winds. The storm then dropped down to EF1 strength yet again as next door metal buildings received lower amounts of damage before the tornado crossed the over Cumberland River into the northern outskirts of Rayon City. For the fifth time in the tornado's life, it regained significant strength, as well as reaching its peak intensity, as high-end EF2 damage with corresponding winds of occurred to a forest on the southern bank of the Cumberland River and next to Old Hickory Lock and Dam. The tornado would then exit out of Davidson County at 4:50 PM CST (22:50 UTC), having been on the ground for 11 minutes at this point.
Track through Sumner County
Hendersonville and downtown
Exactly at the time the tornado left Davidson County, it crossed the Cumberland River a second time into Sumner County, maintaining its peak strength as it entered Hendersonville. Along Overlook Circle on the northern bank of the river, the tornado heavily damaged a large building, collapsed microwave towers and caused widespread tree damage with winds at . To the east, the tornado continued causing EF2 damage to a marina before weakening down to EF1 intensity as it entered a neighborhood along Rockland Road. Upon crossing TN 6 and into the central district of Hendersonville, the tornado yet again regained significant status, as many warehouses suffered damage ranging from EF1-EF2 intensity. Here, a large bowling alley and entertainment center in the path was struck, where 200 people were sheltered inside. A neighborhood to the east-northeast along Hunters Trail had two homes suffering considerable roof damage. For the tornado caused no EF2 damage as it plowed through businesses and homes paralleling TN 6.
Gallatin region Fully entering the southwestern side of Gallatin, the tornado returned to causing EF2 damage. Just southeast of a neighborhood along Foxland Boulevard, the tornado tore down a transmission tower with winds estimated at . Other neighborhoods to the east were subjected to less strong damage as the tornado displayed damage of EF1 strength. The tornado then crossed parts of Old Hickory Lake, making landfall onto a row of suburban homes along Jacobs Drive. Several houses along the street had roof damage inflicted on them, including one that sustained EF2 roof damage. After leaving many neighborhoods and crossing another part of Old Hickory Lake a second time, the tornado possessed EF2 intensity for the last time in its life, as east of Lock Road a transmission tower was collapsed at . For the remainder of the tornado's track within southern Gallatin, it caused at its climax only EF1 damage to homes and businesses in the Windsong area between Nichols Lane and TN 109. Reaching the eastern outskirts of Gallatin, the tornado crossed over Sumner County Regional Airport, where a gust of was measured by the airport's AWOS.
Endpoint of tornado The tornado would then exit Gallatin, encroaching on Albright Lane where several barns sustained EF1 damage. Ahead on Cairo Road, the tornado struck a neighborhood at EF0-EF1 intensity as homes and trees were damaged at a minor extent. Trees on Zieglers Fort Road were uprooted by the tornado, which weakened down to EF0 strength. The storm continued and crossed over Bledsoe Creek and entering the western parts of Castalian Springs. It would pass north of the community proper, causing weak damage to a barn before exiting and impacting a forest along Homer Scott Road at EF0 intensity.