In the lead-up to the 2025 Tasmanian state election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individual electoral division results.
Graphical summary
Voting intention DateFirm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 20 Jul 2025 2025 election 39.9% 25.9% 14.4% 1.6% 2.9% — 15.3% — — 7–18 Jul 2025 YouGov 931 ±3.2% 31% 30% 16% 2% 1% 20% 45% 55% Mid-Jul 2025 EMRS 500 37% 26% 14% 19% colspan=2; 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 3,421 ±2.1% 34.9% 24.7% 15.6% 2.7% 1.8% 20.3% colspan=2; 6–8 Jul 2025 EMRS 518 37% 26% 15% 3% 18% 0% colspan=2; 29 Jun–1 Jul 2025 EMRS55034.5% 28.2% 13.9% 2.1% 17.8% 3.5% colspan=2; 19–26 Jun 2025DemosAU 4,289 34.0% 27.3% 15.1% 2.3% 3.0% 19.3% colspan=2; 12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov 1,287 ±3.4% 31%34% 13% 18% 4% colspan=2; 15–17 Jun 2025EMRS550 32.3% 28.7% 14% 1.8% 19.2% 3.9% colspan=2; 11 Jun 2025 The 2025 Tasmanian state election is called for 19 July 5 Jun 2025 No-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff passes 13–17 May 2025 EMRS 1,000 ±3.1% 29% 31% 14% 6% 17% colspan=2; 11–18 Feb 2025 EMRS 1,000 ±3.1% 34% 30% 13% 8% 12% colspan=2; 5–14 Nov 2024 EMRS 1,000 ±3.1% 35% 31% 14% 6% 14% colspan=2; 2–11 Oct 2024 EMRS 500 28% 26% 17% 5% 1% colspan=2; 29 Aug 2024 Jacqui Lambie Network announces it won't run candidates in next state election 14–21 Aug 2024 EMRS 1,000 36% 27% 14% 8% 15% colspan=2; 6–29 Aug 2024 Wolf & Smith 786 ±3.5% 32% 23% 14% 11% 20% colspan=2; 16–23 May 2024 EMRS 1,000 35% 28% 15% 7% 15% colspan=2; 23 March 2024 2024 election 36.7% 29.0% 13.9% — 2.3% 6.7% 9.6% 1.8% —
Bass Voting intention DateFirm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 723 ±4.5% 37.6% 26.0% 20.0% 3.5% 0.5% 12.4% 19–26 Jun 2025DemosAU 33.5% 27.5% 18.8% 5.1% 4.0% 11.1% 12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov 253 ±6% 36% 34% 12% 15% 2% 21 May 2024 2024 election 38.0% 29.8% 12.0% — 2.4% 8.1% 8.2% 1.8%
Liberal candidates DateFirm Archer Fairs Ferguson Gatenby Quaile Sladden Wood 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 19.6% 4.1% 7.5% 1.8% 1.0% 1.5% 2.2% 21 May 2024 2024 election — 8.4% 18.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.7%
Labor candidates DateFirm Anderson Finlay Gordon Greene Lyons Moore Thomas 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 2.1% 9.4% 1.5% 5.1% 3.5% 2.7% 1.7% 21 May 2024 2024 election 1.3% 10.8% 1.6% 2.5 2.5% — — 13.7%
Independent candidates DateFirm Razay Pentland Other independents6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 5.1% 4.3% 3.0% 21 May 2024 2024 election 1.8% 3.5% 6.2%
Braddon Voting intention DateFirm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 623 ±4.7% 40.8% 23.5% 9.5% 3.2% 1.8% 21.2% 6–8 Jul 2025 EMRS 44% 24% 10% 19–26 Jun 2025DemosAU 44.0% 25.2% 9.3% 2.6% 3.3% 15.6% 12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov 250 ±6% 35% 34% 5% 19% 7% 21 May 2024 2024 election 45.6% 24.7% 6.6% — 2.9% 11.4% 7.5% 1.2%
Liberal candidates DateFirm Ellis Jaensch Parry Pearce Rockliff Simpson Wylie 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 5.4% 2.4% 0.9% 5.8% 24.6% 1.0% 0.6% 21 May 2024 2024 election 7.3% 3.8% — — 27.6% 2.6% — 2.3%
Labor candidates DateFirm Broad Diprose Dow Fuller Hunt Luke Woodhouse 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 3.4% 3.0% 10.4% 1.7% 2.3% 1.6% 1.1% 21 May 2024 2024 election 6.5% 2.1% 8.2% — — 1.4% — 6.6%
Independent candidates DateFirm Garland Martin Other independents6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 13.7% 3.2% 4.3% 21 May 2024 2024 election 5.1% — 2.4%
Clark Voting intention DateFirm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 647 ±5.1% 25.6% 28.1% 22.7% 23.6% 19–26 Jun 2025DemosAU 23.6% 26.2% 22.7% 27.5% 12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov 251 ±6% 27% 24% 17% 30% 2% 21 May 2024 2024 election 30.5% 27.1% 20.9% 1.5% 17.6% 2.4%
Labor candidates DateFirm Haddad Kamara Martin McLaren McLaughlin Shirley Willie 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 7.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.2% 2.6% 1.8% 9.3% 21 May 2024 2024 election 10.9% 2.7% — — — — 8.9% 7.9%
Liberal candidates DateFirm Barnett Behrakis Di Florio Johnstone Ogilvie Vermey Wan 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 1.0% 6.8% 3.4% 1.5% 6.2% 8.3% 0.8% 21 May 2024 2024 election — 8.1% — — 7.3% 5.5% — 6.3%
Greens candidates DateFirm Bayley Burnet Other Greens candidates6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 7.1% 10.4% 5.2% 21 May 2024 2024 election 9.9% 5.4% 5.6%
Independent candidates DateFirm Archer Johnston Other independents6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 4.3% 17.3% 2.1% 21 May 2024 2024 election — 7.7% 9.4%
Franklin Voting intention DateFirm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 804 ±4.4% 31.7% 22.4% 10.7% 35.2% 19–26 Jun 2025DemosAU 29.1% 22.6% 12.9% 35.4% 12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov 266 ±6% 31% 38% 9% 20% 2% 21 May 2024 2024 election 34.0% 27.3% 19.8% 4.9% 11.8% 2.4%
Liberal candidates DateFirm Abetz Garvin Howlett Miller Petrusma Street Young 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 10.8% 4.6% 1.3% 2.0% 7.6% 4.4% 1.0% 21 May 2024 2024 election 9.2% 1.3% — — 8.5% 6.7% 4.3% 4.0%
Labor candidates DateFirm Brown Deane Di Virgilio Hannan Meyers Munday Winter 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 4.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 4.2% 10.1% 21 May 2024 2024 election 5.0% 2.5% — — — — 11.2% 8.6%
Independent candidates DateFirm George O'Byrne Other independents6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 18.2% 13.7% 3.4% 21 May 2024 2024 election — 8.8% 3.0%
Lyons Voting intention DateFirm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 624 ±5.2% 35.5% 26.2% 16.3% 6.1% 4.1% 11.8% 19–26 Jun 2025DemosAU 35.9% 31.9% 13.1% 3.7% 7.0% 8.4% 12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov 267 ±6% 34% 34% 13% 15% 4% 21 May 2024 2024 election 37.6% 32.8% 10.9% — 4.8% 8.3% 4.0% 1.6%
Liberal candidates DateFirm Barnett Cameron Groves Hallett Howlett Lyne Shelton 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 8.5% 3.9% 0.7% 3.0% 13.5% 1.1% 4.9% 21 May 2024 2024 election 11.1% 3.9% — 2.5% 9.2% — 7.0% 3.8%
Labor candidates DateFirm Batt Butler Campbell Farrell Goss Mitchell O'Donnell 6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 1.6% 11.1% 1.5% 2.8% 2.5% 5.3% 1.4% 21 May 2024 2024 election 1.4% 3.2% — 1.6% 2.4% — — 24.2%
Nationals candidates DateFirm Jenner Tucker Other Nationals candidates6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 1.1% 3.8% 0.9% 21 May 2024 2024 election 2.9% 3.1% —
Independent candidates Date Firm Offord Other independents6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 6.2% 5.6% 21 May 2024 2024 election 0.3% 3.7%
Leadership polling Preferred premier DateFirm Samplesize Marginof error Party leaders Unsure 7–18 Jul 2025 YouGov 931 ±3.2% 45% 55% Mid-Jul 2025 EMRS 44% 29% 27%6–10 Jul 2025DemosAU 3,421 ±2.1% 40.7% 31.1% 28.2% 6–8 Jul 2025 EMRS 500 43% 30% 27%29 Jun–1 Jul 2025EMRS 550 44% 32% 24%19–26 Jun 2025DemosAU 4,289 41% 32% 27%12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov 1,287 ±3.4% 43% 36% 21% 13–17 May 2025 EMRS 1,000 ±3.1% 44% 32% 23%11–18 Feb 2025 EMRS 1,000 ±3.1% 44% 34% 21%5–14 Nov 2024 EMRS 1,000 ±3.1% 43% 37% 19%14–21 Aug 2024 EMRS 1,000 45% 30% 25%16–23 May 2021 EMRS 1,000 40% 32% 26%
Favourability ratings Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Fav Neutral Unfav Unsure Net Fav Neutral Unfav Unsure Net11–18 Feb 2025 EMRS 1,000 ±3.1% 36% 29% 25% 3% +10% 18% 34% 11% 10% +6%5–14 Nov 2024 EMRS 1,000 ±3.1% 37% 36% 22% 3% +15% 25% 38% 11% 8% +14%
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