The 2025–26 South Pacific cyclone season, with only 2 tropical cyclones forming, was the least active South Pacific cyclone season on record, tied with the 1990-91 season, characterized by the latest forming named storm in recorded history. While the season officially began on 1 November 2025 and concluded on 30 April 2026, the first named system, Urmil, did not develop until late February. This record-breaking delay surpassed the previous benchmark set during the 2016–17 season. The season’s inactivity was primarily attributed to a poorly organised South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and the failure of a predicted La Niña event to fully materialise, which left atmospheric conditions unfavourable for cyclogenesis for much of the summer. Despite the low number of named storms, the season was notable for the rapid intensification of Vaianu in April, which became the most intense system of the period and ended a multi-year drought of major cyclones in the basin.
The season officially started on 1 November 2025, and ended on 30 April 2026; however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2025, and 30 June 2026, and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and New Zealand's MetService. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will also monitor the basin and issue unofficial warnings for American interests. The FMS attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. The BoM, FMS and MetService all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds with a period of approximately ten minutes, while the JTWC estimates sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).
__TOC__
Seasonal forecasts Source/Record Region TropicalCyclone SevereTropicalCyclones RefRecords Average (1969–70 – 2024–25): 160°E – 120°W 7 3 Record high: 160°E – 120°W 1997–98: 16 1982–83: 9 Record low: 160°E – 120°W 1990–91: 2 2008–09: 0 Predictions ESNZ October 135°E – 120°W 5–9 2–4 FMS Whole 160°E – 120°W 4–5 1–3 FMS Western 160°E – 180° 2–3 1–2 FMS Eastern 180° – 120°W 2–3 0–1
Ahead of the season officially starting on 1 November, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) and Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ), both issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season. These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing weak to moderate La Niña event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1980–81, 1983–84, 1984–85, 1995–96, 2000–01, 2001–02, 2003–04, 2005–06, 2008–09, 2011–12, 2012–13, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2020–21 and 2021–22. The Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook issued by Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) in conjunction with MetService and various other Pacific meteorological services, predicted that five to nine tropical cyclones would occur over the South Pacific Ocean between 135°E and 120°W. The outlook also predicted that two to four of these tropical cyclones would intensify further and become either a Category three, four or five severe tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale. In addition to contributing towards the Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, the FMS predicted that four or five tropical cyclones would occur within the basin, while one to three of these tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become either a category three, four or five severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale.
Seasonal summary
The first tropical disturbance of the season developed during December 2. However, over the next few months, no named tropical cyclones developed. This was attributed to a number of factors, including a poorly organised South Pacific convergence zone and a predicted La Niña episode not developing. Four months after the beginning of the season, the first named storm, Urmil, developed on February 27, becoming the latest-forming first named tropical cyclone of a season within the South Pacific basin, breaking the record set by Tropical Cyclone Bart during the 2016–17 season. After a month-long lull, Vaianu formed and rapidly intensified into a severe tropical cyclone, the first in the basin since Cyclone Mal in 2023, ending the longest streak of seasons without a severe tropical cyclone of such intensity in the satellite era.
Systems Tropical Depression 02F
On 5 December, JTWC started monitoring Tropical Cyclone 06P, embedded within the South Pacific Convergence Zone, 216 nmi north of Papeete, Tahiti. The cyclone was extremely compact and had rapidly consolidated over the preceding 24 hours. Later that day, FMS identified the cyclone as Tropical Disturbance 02F and noted the potential for strengthening in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. 02F was upgraded to a tropical depression by FMS on late night of 5 December, but the system quickly came under the influence of moderate shear which exposed the system's low-level circulation center. JTWC ceased warnings later that day and downgraded the cyclone to a subtropical depression. The depression was last noted on 6 December, as the sheared system accelerated southeastward.
Tropical Depression 03F
On December 10th, a low pressure area developed east of the Solomon Islands, which was designated as Tropical Disturbance 03F. A few days later, on December 13th, the JTWC designated it as Tropical Cyclone 08P. On the 14th, it was classified as a Tropical Depression and reached its peak intensity of 1-min sustained winds of , and a central pressure of 1000 hPa (mbar).
On the 15th, the system started to weaken due to entering an unfavorable environment with increased windshear, and on the 16th, collapsed into a remnant low, that was tracked by the JTWC until the 17th.
Tropical Disturbance 05F
Tropical Low 14U entered the South Pacific basin from the Australian region late on the night of 19 January. It was designated Tropical Disturbance 05F by the Fiji Meteorological Service upon crossover. On the 20th, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) classified it as a subtropical cyclone. On 21 January, the system transitioned into an extratropical cyclone and had severe impacts in northern New Zealand. MetService issued Red Warnings for heavy rainfall in some regions of the North Island.https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/01/21/threat-to-life-red-heavy-rain-warnings-for-north-island-regions/ Ten people were confirmed dead.
Tropical Depression 06F
On January 20, a tropical low that developed within the South Pacific Convergence Zone in mid-January 2026. On January 21, at 06:00 UTC, the (JTWC) began monitoring the system as a tropical disturbance, designating it as Tropical Cyclone 16P. At this time, the system was located near the boundary between the Australian region and the South Fiji basin, characterized by favorable upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. Later that day, the Fiji Meteorological Service assumed primary responsibility for the system as it crossed into their Area of Responsibility.
The Fiji Meteorological Service officially designated the system as Tropical Depression 06F. During its peak intensity, with estimated 1-minute sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph). Concurrently, recorded a minimum barometric pressure of 994 hPa (29.35 inHg).
By early January 22, increasing vertical wind shear from the northwest began to decouple the system's low-level circulation from its deep convection. This hostile environment caused the depression to rapidly lose organization. On January 22, the FMS issued its final advisory, noting that 06F had degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. However, the JTWC instead classified it as a subtropical depression and continued to track it until the 25th.
Tropical Depression 07F
The remnants of Tropical Low 17U from the Australian Region entered the South Pacific basin on 27 January. The system was classified as Tropical Disturbance 07F by the Fiji Meteorological Service, and began strengthening shortly after its crossover, becoming a tropical depression. On 28 January, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center initiated advisories on the system, designating it 18P. The cyclone began rapidly organizing as it dove southward, and the JTWC estimated it had a peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h), and a minimum pressure of 988 milibars early on 29 January. After the fact, the cyclone begun to move over cooler waters, and promptly began its extratropical transition. The system was last noted on 30 January, just to the northeast of Norfolk Island.
Tropical Cyclone Urmil
On 23 February, the FMS began to forecast a low pressure system developing near Vanuatu in the next 5 days. Late on the next day, both the FMS and JTWC reported that a tropical low had formed approximately to the north-northeast of Port Vila. At the time, it had fragmented convection developing over the southeast of a tightening low-level trough, and was under a favorable environment with low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and good poleward outflow aloft. Over the next few days, it continued to organize, with improved convective banding, leading to the FMS designating the low as Tropical Disturbance 09F and prompting the JTWC to issue a TCFA early on 26 February. Around 12:00 UTC on the same day, the FMS further upgraded 09F into a tropical depression, with the JTWC issuing advisories on the system late on the same day, designating the system as Tropical Cyclone 23P. By 27 February, the FMS reported that it had intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone in the Australian scale, and named the system as Urmil. It set the record for the latest first named tropical cyclone during a season in the South Pacific, beating the former record set by Tropical Cyclone Bart in 2017 which was named on 21 February.
During 27 February, Urmil continued to gradually intensify, with the FMS reporting that it had intensified into a Category 2 tropical cyclone late on the same day. The JTWC subsequently upgraded the system to a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale by 28 February. Urmil then reached its peak intensity at 06:00 UTC that same day, with 10-minute winds of . Afterwards, Urmil began to weaken under increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures, with deep convection becoming more disorganized. It then crossed into MetService's area of responsibility by the next day, with the JTWC issuing its final advisory on the system shortly after, as it was transitioning to a subtropical system. The MetService subsequently reclassified Urmil as an ex-tropical cyclone, and continued to track the system until 5 March, when it had moved out of its area of responsibility.
Outer rainbands and strong winds associated with Urmil impacted Fiji. A child drowned in Namoli at Kaleli Settlement.
Tropical Depression 10F