Next Portuguese legislative election

The next Portuguese legislative election will take place on or before 14 October 2029 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 18th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.

The 2025 election resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a minority government led by Luís Montenegro. An election may occur before the scheduled date if the President of Portugal dissolves Parliament for a snap election or if the Assembly of the Republic passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely during minority governments, as the Prime Minister does not command a majority in the Assembly.

Background In the 2025 election, the centre-right to right-wing Democratic Alliance (AD) was re-elected with 32% of the votes and 91 seats, with the far-right populist party Chega (CH) becoming the second largest party in Parliament, by gathering 60 seats and 23% of the votes. The Socialist Party (PS) fell to third place for the first time in democracy, with also 23% of the votes and just 58 seats. The Liberal Initiative (IL) remained stable, at 5% and 9 seats, while LIVRE surpassed BE and PCP by gathering 4% of the votes and six seats. The other left-wing parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved their worst results ever, with only 3 and 1 seats, respectively. The People Animals Nature (PAN) maintained their sole seat, whereas the Madeiran-based Together for the People (JPP) entered Parliament for the first time.

Eleven days after election day, on 29 May 2025, Luis Montenegro was asked by President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to form a government, once again a minority one. The new government was sworn into office on 5 June 2025. On the October 2025 local elections, the PSD gained the most councils across the country, mainly the five most populated municipalities, surpassing the PS and becoming the largest party in local government. In the first round of the 2026 presidential election, the AD supported candidate, Luís Marques Mendes, polled just 11% of the votes and failed to reach the second round. António José Seguro (PS) and André Ventura (CH) were the candidates who advanced to the second round, with Seguro being elected President, easily defeating Ventura by a 67% to 33% margin, and opening a new period of cohabitation.

With the economy performing well and unemployment at very low levels, Montenegro's second government has been dominated by issues like immigration, with the approval of new legislation, supported by Chega, which further restricts migration policy in Portugal, (the original proposal, at first, was sent to the Constitutional Court by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, with the Court blocking the government's legislation), labour reforms that have received backlash from trade unions with general strikes in 2025 and 2026, the problematic state of the National Health Service, and the constant failures from the welfare state, in addition to the persistent housing crisis. The controversy that led to the 2025 snap election, the Spinumviva case, was closed by the Public Prosecution Service in December 2025, with no charges being filed. Environmental disasters, such as the August 2025 Portuguese wildfires and the January 2026 Storm Kristin, have also increased pressure on the government, with criticisms directed at the alleged slow response and lack of coordination, adding to this the international front with the impacts of the 2026 Iran war on energy prices and the cost of living. Contentions surrounding several government ministers have likewise generated further criticisms towards the government.

Leadership changes and challenges

Socialist Party

After achieving a disappointing result and finishing in third place, then secretary-general Pedro Nuno Santos resigned on election night, 18 May 2025, leaving the party's president Carlos César as interim leader. A leadership election was ultimately called for 27 and 28 June 2025.

José Luís Carneiro announced his intention to run for the party's leadership on the day after the May 2025 election, while other figures like Mariana Vieira da Silva, Fernando Medina and Alexandra Leitão declined to run. After the deadline for submitting candidacies passed on 12 June 2025, Carneiro was the only candidate to submit one, making him the de facto winner of the ballot and the newly elected leader of the party. This was confirmed by the ballot results, with Carneiro garnering more than 95% of the votes, albeit a turnout rate below 50%.

After the ballot, questions arose about the validity of this vote: According to the party's statutes, holding a party congress following a leadership vote is mandatory, but because there was no date for a congress, Carneiro's leadership would be labeled as interim, thus forcing a new leadership ballot at short notice. The party's parliamentary leader, Eurico Brilhante Dias, confirmed that the election of Carneiro was to complete the term left vacant by Pedro Nuno Santos, which would expire in early 2026. After the first round of the 2026 Presidential election was held, it was announced that the party would hold a new leadership ballot on 13 and 14 March 2026, with Carneiro running for a full term. Other potential candidates like Alexandra Leitão, Ana Mendes Godinho, Duarte Cordeiro and Miguel Prata Roque refused to run and endorsed Carneiro's reelection, with the incumbent PS leader being once again the only candidate on the ballot. Carneiro was elected for a full term as leader with 97.1% of the votes, under a 55% turnout rate.

Liberal Initiative On 31 May 2025, Liberal Initiative President Rui Rocha announced his resignation as leader, citing the new political scenario and the poor increase of the Liberal Initiative in the previous election as reasons for his resignation. The party's secretary-general, Miguel Rangel, assumed the interim leadership until the next convention, after all the vice presidents refused to do so. The leadership convention ended up being scheduled for 19 July 2025.

On 4 June, Mariana Leitão, parliamentary leader and the party's former 2026 presidential candidate, announced her candidacy for the party's leadership, withrawing from the presidential race the following day, while other speculated names like Bernardo Blanco, former MP from Lisbon, Mário Amorim Lopes, MP from Aveiro, and Rui Malheiro, candidate for the February 2025 leadership election, declined to run. After the deadline for submitting candidacies passed on 4 July 2025, Leitão was the only candidate to submit one, making her the winner of the ballot and the newly elected leader of the party, although this would only be official after the leadership convention vote. On 19 July 2025, during the party's convention held in Alcobaça with 985 members registered to vote, Leitão was elected with 73% of the votes:

Left Bloc

The Left Bloc held a leadership convention on 29 and 30 November 2025. At first, party leader Mariana Mortágua was expected to run for re-election, however, after the party's poor showings in both the October local elections and in the May 2025 snap legislative election, Mortágua announced, on 25 October 2025, that she would not run for another term after all and would resign from her seat in Parliament also. Former vice president of parliament, José Manuel Pureza, announced a bid for the leadership, while a group of critics of Mortágua's leadership, led by Adelino Fortunato, also announced their intention to run for the party's leadership in the convention. Three other motions from opposition groups were also tabled, although one of them was not for the leadership itself. There were 598 delegates eligible to vote at the party convention. On 30 November 2025, José Manuel Pureza was easily elected as new leader with more than 81% of the delegates votes.

People Animals Nature The People Animals Nature (PAN) held a leadership congress on 20 December 2025. Party leader Inês Sousa Real ran for another term, but she faced a lot of criticism regarding her leadership, with some party members questioning the validity of and opposing the leadership ballot, while dozens of party members announced their departure from the party. Sousa Real was challenged by Carolina Pia, a former party district leader and 2024 candidate for Viseu district. However, Carolina Pia refused to be present on the congress, protesting against the lack of "democratic guarantees", despite her name remaining on the ballot. There were 114 delegates eligible to vote, but just 72 cast a ballot, with Sousa Real being re-elected with 96% of the delegates votes, while Carolina Pia, absent from the congress, got just one vote:

In July 2026, the Constitutional Court ruled as invalid the December 2025 ballot that re-elected Sousa Real as party leader. A subsequent appeal by the party was rejected by the Court, and a new leadership congress is expected to be called, although the opposition to Sousa Real considers it unlawful for the current leadership, elected in the December congress, to call any ballot.

CDS – People's Party

Next Portuguese legislative election

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