Opinion polling in Scotland for the next United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Politics and polling in Scotland often have a different dynamic to the rest of the UK, and polling companies undertake separate polling in Scotland: results of such polls are displayed in this article. The polling companies listed are all members of the British Polling Council (unless noted) all abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next UK general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

Polls

Date(s)conducted Pollster Client Sample sizeLabSNPConLDRefGrnOthers LeadSurvationDiffley Partnership2,03619%34%11%8%18%5%4%16Find Out NowThe National1,02018%29%10%10%17%10%6%11YouGovScottish Elections Study2,21416%34%11%8%17%10%4%17Andy Burnham is elected as leader of the Labour Party and subsequently becomes Prime MinisterNorstatThe Times1,00216%34%10%9%17%10%4%172026 Scottish Parliament electionSurvationBallot Box Scotland1,00819%31%10%8%21%7%2%10IpsosSTV1,03015%37%11%8%18%9%2%19The Alba Party deregisters as a political party and dissolves Lord Ashcroft Poll N/A2,08913%36%10%8%16%12%5%20IpsosSTV1,08319%33%10%10%18%8%2%14Find Out NowThe National1,00214%31%8%10%23%10%3%8YouGovScottish Elections Study1,47714%32%11%9%21%11%2%11NorstatThe Sunday Times1,00117%32%11%7%23%8%1%9NorstatThe Sunday Times1,01617%32%11%9%21%7%1%11Malcolm Offord is appointed leader of Reform UK in ScotlandSurvationTrue North1,00317%31%12%9%21%8%0%10Find Out NowThe National1,00013%32%10%8%24%10%3%8 IpsosSTV106117%33%11%8%20%11%1%13NorstatThe Sunday Times1,01018%31%11%9%23%7%1%8Find Out NowThe National1,28215%30%10%9%23%6%5%7SurvationScotland in Union2,05119%35%12%8%19%4%1%16 More in CommonN/A1,10417%31%11%11%21%6%2%10Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer are elected co-leaders of the Scottish GreensYouGovScottish Election Study1,17819%29%10%11%22%7%1%7 IpsosSTV1,06622%31%10%9%16%10%1%9 NorstatThe Sunday Times1,00720%31%12%8%21%7%1%10 SurvationTrue North1,02019%32%11%11%21%5%11 SurvationDiffley Partnership1,00524%33%14%9%15%5%9YouGovScottish Election Study1,16421%32%12%7%19%7%1%11 Find Out NowSunday Herald1,33418%32%12%9%17%6%5%14NorstatThe Sunday Times1,33418%32%13%11%17%6%14 SurvationHolyrood Sources1,02424%33%14%9%15%4%1%9 Find Out NowThe National1,77420%34%13%9%15%6%2%14 NorstatThe Sunday Times1,01320%31%14%9%15%6%1%11 SurvationProgress Scotland3,01628%31%15%6%13%5%1%3 NorstatThe Sunday Times1,01323%30%15%10%14%6%1%7Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives SurvationProgress Scotland2,05931%31%14%9%11%3%Tie OpiniumThe Sunday Times1,02825%32%14%8%11%7%2%7 NorstatThe Sunday Times1,01132%29%12%8%12%5%1%3C style="background:#e9e9e9;" rowspan="1" 2024 General Election Result – 35.3% 30.0% 12.7% 9.7% 7.0% 3.8% 1.6%5.3

UK polls with Scottish sub-samples This section captures data from UK wide polls that have a Scottish sub-samples; these have very small sample sizes and should be viewed with caution as the statistical margin of error will be in the region of ±10%. The statistical margin of error for a full poll with a sample size of 1000 is typically ±3%. Additional uncertainty arises from the fact that sub-samples may not be correctly weighted to account for demographic variations (age, gender, previous voting intention etc.).

However even with a high margin of error where these sub-polls consistently report a similar set of results then the statistical significance increases.

Where statistical noise overwhelms the results there would not be an identifiable pattern between sub-polls. Therefore, these sub-polls provide a regular insight into Scottish polling when they align or when the results are chained together as demonstrated between 2020 and 2024. As such they provide a far more frequent opportunity to understand the movements in Scottish political when full 'Scottish only' polling is relatively rare in Scotland.

2026