Following the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war, with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, states in the vicinity of the conflict reported numerous violations of their airspace, particularly NATO member states that Russia had designated as "unfriendly states" because of their political, military and economic support for Ukraine. While most violations were attributed to Russian (or Belarusian) military equipment such as UAVs and aircraft, Ukrainian equipment was also responsible on several occasions, most notably in the 2022 Przewodów explosion, in which two Polish civilians were killed by a stray Ukrainian rocket that hit a farm in Przewodów, eight kilometres into Poland and NATO territory.
The incidents involved a wide range of military equipment, including cruise or ballistic missiles, drones, helicopters and military airplanes. While many violations were assessed as accidental, resulting from electronic warfare or navigation errors, several defense analysts and military experts suggested that some incursions may have been deliberate, in order to provoke NATO or increase political and military pressure on member states supporting Ukraine. No conclusive evidence has emerged in this sense, although the possibility has been discussed.
Frequency and reactions
A significant number of the violations occurred in sparsely populated regions. Hotspots include Romania's Danube Delta, where the proximity of Ukrainian ports targeted by Russian strikes often resulted in drones or missile debris crossing the border, and the heavily forested borders of Poland and the Baltic states with Belarus and Russia. In several cases, the debris were accidentally discovered only days or weeks later by civilians or border patrols.
Romania has experienced the highest number of reported incidents since 2023, with at least 70 violations involving both Russian and Ukrainian military equipment. The incidents ranged from repeated discovery of drone fragments to complete drone crashes and explosions near or in inhabited areas. The most serious was the crash of a Russian drone into an apartment building in Galați, the eighth largest city of Romania, which injured two civilians and caused significant material damage. Similar incidents have occurred in other neighboring states, including the aforementioned November 2022 missile explosion in Poland and the March 2022 crash of a military drone in Zagreb, which crossed the airspace of Romania and Hungary before crashing in the Croatian capital.
The violations prompted governments of the affected countries repeatedly condemned the incidents and called on Russia to respect international borders, while also prompted NATO to expand its air policing and integrated air and missile defense activities in Eastern Europe. Although most violations did not result in casualties or material damage, they highlighted the risks posed by military operations conducted in close proximity to NATO territory and raised concerns about the potential for accidental escalation between Russia and the bloc.
List of violations 2022 +Date Noncombatant country Committed byNature of violationFebruary 24, 2022 Romania UkraineOn the starting day of the invasion, a Ukrainian Air Force Sukhoi Su-27 fighter suffered some technical problems which resulted in the loss of communication with its home base. The fighter accidentally entered Romanian airspace and was intercepted by two Romanian F-16 fighters which escorted it to the 95th Air Base in Bacău. After its technical problems were fixed, the Ukrainian aircraft was returned without its armament on March 1, being escorted by two MiG-21 LanceRs to the border where other Ukrainian aircraft took over.March 2, 2022 Sweden RussiaFour Russian Su-24s and Su-27s violated the airspace of Sweden above the Baltic Sea east of Gotland. The Swedish Air Force, using a JAS 39 Gripen, photographed the event.March 10, 2022 Croatia Hungary RomaniaUndisclosed2022 Zagreb Tu-141 crash: An unmanned drone, a Tupolev Tu-141, crashed in Zagreb, the capital city of Croatia, after travelling through Croatian, Hungarian and Romanian airspace. Both Ukraine and Russia denied ownership of the drone. Croatian Minister of Defense Mario Banožić said in an interview that the governments of Croatia and other NATO member states in the drone's flight path know who launched the drone, but the information had been declared a state secret.March 13, 2022 Romania RussiaA Russian Orlan-10 drone crashed in the Bistrița-Năsăud County. Initially thought to be a privately owned commercial drone, it was soon identified to be an Orlan-10 of the Russian army.April 29, 2022 Sweden RussiaA Russian Antonov An-30 violated the airspace of Sweden south of Blekinge in the Friday evening. The violation lasted for less than one minute.November 15, 2022 Poland Ukraine2022 missile explosion in Poland: A Ukrainian air-defence missile became out of control and crashed into a grain facility in the village of Przewodów, Lublin Voivodeship, killing two people.December 16, 2022 Poland RussiaDuring a Russian missile attack on Ukraine, Polish radar detected an unidentified object in their airspace, but neither the United States F-15 or Polish MiG-29 fighter jets operating nearby were able to visually identify it before it disappeared from radar. On April 27, 2023, remains of a Kh-55 cruise missile were discovered by a horseback rider in a forest in Zamość, Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship, 15 km west of the city of Bydgoszcz (NATO Joint Force Training Centre headquarter) in northern Poland; according to the Polish Air Force Institute of Technology, the missile was likely fired by a Russian Su-34 during the December 16, 2022 attack on Ukraine but unintentionally veered off course, travelling through Belarusian airspace into Poland before crashing.The discovery provoked a political controversy in Poland regarding why the airspace violation had not been made public at the time, and why Polish air defence and radar systems had lost track of the missile.
2023 +Date Noncombatant country Committed byNature of violationFebruary 10, 2023 Moldova RussiaA Russian missile violated Moldovan airspace, resulting in the Russian ambassador to Moldova being summoned in protest.August 1, 2023 Poland BelarusTwo Belarusian helicopters violated Polish airspace, with the Belarusian chargé d'affaires summoned by Poland in response. Romania RussiaA Russian drone fell on Romanian territory during the attacks on the night of September 3 to 4. The claims were initially denied, however, on September 5, drone fragments were identified near the village of Plauru on the Ukrainian border. Other drone fragments were discovered on September 9.September 13, 2023 Romania RussiaThe crew of a Romanian Air Force helicopter identified fragments from a drone between the villages of Nufăru and Victoria, after a Russian attack on the Ukrainian port of Izmail. According to the locals, the drone fell about away from a military unit located in the area.September 30, 2023 Romania RussiaA Russian drone was detected in Romanian airspace by the Romanian defence ministry during an overnight drone attack against Ukraine.December 14, 2023 Romania RussiaA Russian drone violated Romanian airspace and crashed on Romanian territory, resulting in German and Romanian fighter jets being scrambled.December 29, 2023 Poland RussiaA Russian missile violated Polish airspace for less than three minutes, during which time the missile was tracked by Polish and allied radar systems. The Russian chargé d'affaires was summoned by Poland in response.
2024 +Date Noncombatant country Committed byNature of violationMarch 24, 2024 Poland RussiaA Russian cruise missile, aimed at Ukraine, violated Polish airspace for 39 seconds, near the village of Oserdów. In response, Polish and allied aircraft were activated.April 17–18, 2024 RomaniaUnknownThree unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles were detected flying close to the Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base on April 17. The drones, determined to be small commercial types, were subsequently brought down with electronic warfare equipment, although no remains were found. The following day, another similar drone was detected close to the base. The military prosecutor's office started an investigation following the events.June 14, 2024 Sweden RussiaA Russian Su-24 violated the airspace of Sweden east of the southern point of Gotland on the Friday evening. Two Swedish Air Force pilots called the pilot and warned him, getting no reply. Two JAS 39 Gripen intercepted the Russian airplane and escorted it away from Swedish airspace.July 24–25, 2024 Romania RussiaNight attacks launched on Ukraine for two consecutive days and multiple drones observed approaching the Romanian border. On both occasions Romanian F-16s were sent to monitor the situation in Tulcea County. Three Geran-2 drones entered Romanian territory on July 25 as claimed by the Ukrainian Air Force. The drones subsequently crashed and the wrecks were identified in the aftermath.September 7, 2024 Latvia RussiaA drone crashed in the Rēzekne Municipality after flying through Belarus. A week before the incident, on August 27, 2024, the Minister of Defense of Latvia announced a "concrete reaction" in response if incidents involving a Russian drone continue to be repeated on NATO territorySeptember 8, 2024 Romania RussiaThe drone violated the airspace of Romania, its wreckage is being searched for in a deserted area on the outskirts of the city of PeripravaSeptember 27, 2024 Romania RussiaA drone briefly entered Romanian airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine. Four aircraft were brought to monitor the situation.October 17, 2024 RomaniaUnknownA "small aerial target" was detected over the Black Sea, about 150 km east of Mihail Kogălniceanu. The object proceeded to fly 14 km in the Romanian airspace around Eforie Nord, later towards Topraisar. Spanish and Romanian jets were sent out to monitor the situation but made no contact with the target. The radar contact was lost near Amzacea. No impact zones were identified.October 19, 2024 RomaniaUnknownAnother "small aerial target" was detected 45 km east of Sfântu Gheorghe, Tulcea. Spanish and Romanian fighters were again sent to visually identify the object but did not detect anything. Radar contact was lost south of Cogealac and no impact zones were identified in the aftermath.
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