The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election was held on 27 September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a three-year term.
Incumbent LDP President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on 14 August that he would not run for his re-election, amid record-low approval ratings following controversy over a slush fund scandal involving the party factions Seiwakai and Shisuikai, both of which disbanded in January 2024. Kishida's Kōchikai also disbanded. Approval ratings were also mired by the party's affiliations with the Unification Church.
The 2024 presidential election was the first since the abolition of most of the party's factions in the wake of the slush fund scandal, which led to commentators describing the election's outcome as unusually volatile and unpredictable. Nine candidates ran for the presidency, a record number. At the beginning of the official campaign period, Former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba, former Minister of the Environment Shinjirō Koizumi and Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi emerged as the three top front-runners based on polling. Ishiba and Koizumi were described as the "centrists" of the election, while Takaichi was described as a "staunch conservative."
Ishiba narrowly defeated Takaichi in a runoff, and was confirmed by the Diet as the next Prime Minister four days later on 1 October. Ishiba's victory was described by commentators as unexpected and an upset, owing to his past leadership bid failures as well as his prior unpopularity with many LDP members of the Diet.
Election procedure The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party". In order to officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.
The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan. In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots. If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first round, that candidate is elected president.
As no candidate received a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff was held immediately between the top two candidates, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi. In a runoff, all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture. The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected president. Ishiba received 215 votes to Takaichi's 194, securing Ishiba the spot as the next leader of the LDP.
Organization On 26 July, the party announced the members of the Presidential Election Commission, which was chaired by Ichiro Aisawa. Unlike in the 2021 election, the committee selection was based on constituencies as opposed to factions. Mainichi reported that some within the LDP claimed that outgoing party president Fumio Kishida deliberately selected Diet members who supported Sanae Takaichi in 2021 in order to deprive her of endorsements necessary to stand in the election. +LDP Presidential Election Management CommitteePositionPortraitMember of the DietChairmanIchiro AisawaDeputy ChairGen NakataniMembersMasahiro ImamuraIchiro MiyashitaHideki NiwaShinsuke OkunoHitoshi KikawadaYuko NakagawaTetsuro NomuraSatsuki KatayamaKen AkamatsuSource:
Background Following the resignation of party president and prime minister Yoshihide Suga, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021, defeating Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform minister Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the prime minister on 4 October 2021.
Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church
Following the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2022, the Unification Church (UC) new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating, decreased. Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the UC in order to regain public trust in his government.
Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.
Slush fund scandal
In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.
Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entirety of Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal. Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.
The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.
On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later in January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party.
Continued unpopularity and resignation Kishida's approval ratings continued to fall in the aftermath of the scandal, dropping to 23% on 13 December 2023, marking the lowest rating for any Prime Minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. By 22 December, his approval ratings had further decreased to 17%. According to a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted on 18 December 2023, 79% of respondents disapprove of Kishida's performance as Prime Minister, the highest disapproval rate since the end of World War II.
Concerns emerged about Kishida's ability to lead the party to victory in the upcoming general election, with the scandal leading to speculations that the LDP could potentially lose power in favor of a CDP-led coalition. Ex-Seiwakai member and House of Representatives member Takatori Shuichi said that he does not believe the party can maintain a majority in the National Diet if Kishida is reelected as party president, while Kishida's predecessor Suga on 23 June called for the resignation of Kishida, stating that the party would lose power if "things continue like this". Mainichi Shimbun reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida.
Campaign
Prelude Sanae Takaichi on 18 June 2024 announced that she will be publishing a book on economic security titled "Japan's Economic Security" (日本の経済安全保障), to be published on 8 July, the second anniversary of Shinzo Abe's assassination. There are views within the party that the book is an early campaign manifesto for her presidential run. On 30 June, the Asahi Shimbun reported that Sanae Takaichi had decided to run for the presidential election. She denied this in a post on Twitter, and later declined to comment on 2 July.On 26 June, Taro Kono, who made it to the second round in 2021, conveyed his desire to run for the presidency to LDP Vice President and his faction boss Taro Aso, during dinner. Governor of Gunma Ichita Yamamoto announced his intentions to endorse Kono in a press conference the following day. On 10 August, Kono again conveyed his desire to run to Taro Aso. He reportedly told Aso he would run with or without his support.
Shigeru Ishiba on 28 June informed his political allies of his intentions to run for the presidency and has begun making "concrete arrangements". He indicated on 11 July that he would make a decision by August. Later on 21 July Ishiba said he would decide around the Obon holiday period (August 13–16). Two days later he said that were he to run, he would campaign on deleting the second paragraph of Article 9 in the Japanese Constitution renouncing Japan's right to wage war. Ishiba declared his candidacy on 14 August, hours after Kishida's resignation.
On 2 July the Yukan Fuji reported that Shinjirō Koizumi may be preparing to run for LDP president, with a goal of making it to the second round runoff. While visiting Fukushima Prefecture for a surfing competition, Koizumi said he was "carefully considering" a run for the party presidency. Diet Member Naoki Furukawa suggested Kishida be replaced by Koizumi on 12 July.
LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi visited Fumio Kishida's home prefecture of Hiroshima on 6 July. Motegi later said on 22 July that he would not be the first candidate to formally declare his intention to run, in order to avoid becoming the "Reiwa era Nobuteru Ishihara" who ran in the 2012 election. On the same day, he stated he would make a decision by early September. Motegi will embark on a trip to Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines on 28 July in an effort to boost his profile.
On 24 July Seiko Noda met with policy chief Tokai Kisaburo, Diet Affairs Chair Hamada Yasukazu (both of whom endorsed her campaign in 2021) and others to discuss her potential candidacy.
Takayuki Kobayashi indicated on 12 August that the party should "balance out" punishments against Abe faction members for the kickback scandal, arguing that removal from leadership has made on the ground activities challenging. LDP Upper House Member Shigeharu Aoyama indicated in a press conference that he would run for the Presidency. The same day Diet members Tatsuo Fukuda, Masanobu Ogura and Keitaro Ohno stated in an opinion piece that the election was "a big opportunity for a change in generation and appointing women", seemingly calling for Kishida to step aside.
Kishida declines and early campaign activities