In preparation for the next presidential election in Romania, which took place on November 24 (first round) and second round which would have taken place on December 8, 2024, various polling companies and organizations in Romania conducted a series of opinion polls to measure and track voting intentions of the electorate.
First round graphic representation
Second round Georgescu vs Lasconi (annulled) PollDateSampleGeorgescuInd.LasconiUSRIRES17 - 20 Dec 20241,000 48.0 29.0AtlasIntel28 Nov–5 Dec 20245.50546.448.6Sociopol3–4 Dec 20241.200 63.0 37.0AtlasIntel1–4 Dec 20242.116 47.043.8Curs1 Dec 202424.629 57.842.2Sociopol27–29 Nov 20241.000 60.040.0AtlasIntel26–28 Nov 20242.11645.3 47.5
First round
After the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024) PollDateSampleCălin GeorgescuInd.Elena LasconiUSRMarcel CiolacuPSDGeorge SimionAURNicolae CiucăPNLMircea GeoanăInd.Hunor KelemenUDMRCristian DiaconescuInd.Cristian TerheșPNCRAna BirchallInd.Ludovic OrbanFDOthers Election (annulled first round) 24 Nov 2024 9.242.186 22.9419.17 19.14 13.86 8.78 6.32 4.50 3.10 1.04 0.5 0.2 0.5AtlasIntel20–22 Nov 20241.6928.117.8 23.716.914.36.92.96.21.00.70.80.7Verifield for USR20–21 Nov 20241.80310.619.0 24.519.08.67.93.45.10.70.6—0.6AtlasIntel15–20 Nov 20242.0036.215.3 24.315.412.17.05.93.32.14.21.52.7INSOMAR14–20 Nov 20241.0426.812.724.416.215.68.43.64.43.8———Verifield for USR8–14 Nov 20249684.917.1 26.318.87.38.14.76.82.8—1.12.1INSCOP7–12 Nov 20241.1005.414.3 25.319.19.113.34.14.62.10.81.00.6Alexandra Păcuraru (ADN) 0.6%BCS7–10 Nov 20241.1575.814.3 27.111.917.77.65.74.92.90.51.0—Sociopol4–8 Nov 20241.001—12.0 29.021.015.09.02.09.03.0———CIRA1–6 Nov 20241.1501.016.0 29.017.019.09.01.0——1.0——Verifield for USR1–6 Nov 20241.0644.615.7 25.921.28.513.22.94.40.31.21.11.0Silviu Predoiu (PLAN) 0.6%CURSPolling institute with strong ties to the PSD30 Oct–5 Nov1.067—12.0 28.017.017.09.05.05.04.02.0—1.0Argument18-23 Oct 20241.100—15.9 26.818.412.914.61.34.80.40.50.73.6Sociopol14-18 Oct 20241.0031.013.0 26.020.017.010.02.09.01.0—1.0—INSCOP11-18 Oct 20241.106—15.0 24.120.78.218.13.85.11.90.91.90.3CURSPolling institute with strong ties to the PSD11-16 Oct 20241.006—14.0 26.017.015.015.02.05.02.02.02.02.0Verifield for USR7-9 Oct 20241.009—17.1 23.419.86.217.23.87.63.10.70.70.4SociopolPolling institute that has traditionally overestimated AUR in polls. Exemple7-9 Oct 20241.0042.012.0 26.019.017.010.02.09.02.02.01.0—
Before the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024) PollDateSampleGeoanăInd.CiolacuPSDSimionAURCiucăPNLȘoșoacăS.O.S.Drulă/LasconiUSRKelemenUDMRCioloșREPERKövesiInd.OthersINSOMAR-Avangarde15–27 Sep 20241.10015.0 30.011.017.07.014.02.0———CURS10–23 Sep 20241.06716.0 29.011.018.07.012.0————INSCOP11–16 Sep 20241.102 20.820.512.45.612.516.03.6———FlashData5–13 Sep 20241.10016.0 24.019.013.08.013.0———7.0Sociopol26 Aug-3 Sep 20241,00514.026.019.010.09.014.01.0———Verifield for USRAug 202421.017.214.17.313.915.32.38.8The Center for International Research and Analyses24–30 Aug 20241,09914.025.013.016.011.013.03.0——5.0CURS6–22 Aug 20241,06715.032.014.019.05.011.0———4.0ARA for Antena39–26 Jul 20241,00920.028.010.06.012.012.0———14.0CURS18–26 Jul 20241,06715.031.015.019.04.012.03.0———Sociopol9–17 Jul 20241,00215.025.019.012.09.014.01.0———CURS26 Jun–2 Jul 20241,06717.030.013.020.06.09.03.0——2.0INSCOP19–27 June 20241,10026.717.811.211.913.414.33.4——1.2CSPSJune 20241,01324.016.028.06.04.017.05.0———INSCOP20–25 May 20241,10023.718.213.511.512.58.65.5——6.4AtlasIntel5–9 April 20241,76433.6—11.8—10.710.91.46.9——279.612.6510.611.30.76.1——27.39.212.4—9.813.63.06.4——INSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00026.024.013.012.08.0—3.0—9.0—INSCOP Research16–24 Jan 20241,10026.518.913.311.414.05.93.65.1—1.3Snap Market Research3–8 Jan 2024998122913814—5—109
Opinion polls with Geoană (2023) PollDateSampleGeoanăInd.CiolacuPSDSimionAURCiucăPNLȘoșoacăS.O.S.DrulăUSRLasconi USROrbanFDKelemenUDMRCioloșREPERKövesiInd.HellvigInd.OthersINSCOP20–27 Nov 20231,100 26.2 20.814.012.114.44.2——2.43.9——1.9INSCOP23 Oct–2 Nov 20231,100 27.721.818.9—10.5—12.1—3.14.3———AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,000 20.410.37.70.7 13.36.92.33.43.02.410.96.413.4 INSCOP 15–22 Sep 2023 1,550 25.3 19.5 18.7 11.2 10.1 5.6—— 2.74.1——3.4AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,000 22.6—10.64.96.18.0—3.84.42.016.40.420.914.66.29.74.65.54.5—5.12.95.1 16.90.524.2 Election Nov 2019 22.26 37.82 0.34! 15.02— 3.87————
Opinion polls without Geoană (2023) PollDateSampleCiucăPNLCiolacuPSDDrulăUSRKelemenUDMRKövesiInd.SimionAURȘoșoacăS.O.S.CioloșREPEROrbanFDHellvigInd.OthersINSCOP20–27 Nov 20231,10014.127.47.12.7—18.019.16.7——4.9AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,0008.013.37.42.1 15.710.45.95.35.02.924.1 Election Nov 2019 37.82 22.26 15.02 3.87— 0.34! ————
Opinion polls with potential candidates (before 2023) PollDateSampleCîțu PNLOrban PNLCiolacu PSDBarna USR PLUSCioloș USR PLUSDrulă USR PLUSDiaconescu PMPKelemen UDMRSimion AURȘoșoacă NR/S.O.S.Geoană Ind.Dragnea PAINE/ApPOthers 15–31 Jul 2021 1,112 11.0 — 4.0 — — 22.0 — 5.0 — — 33.0 — 6.0 INSOMAR 1–8 May 2021 1,030 — 12.03 16.1 22.00 13.4 — 8.3 — 14.2 4.0 — 6.6 3.37 INSOMAR 8–11 Feb 2021 1,030 3.0 11.4 23.0 21.0 12.6 — — 3.0 17.0 — — 0.0 8.96 Election Nov 2019 37.8222.26 15.02 5.72 3.870.34-! 14.97
The first round among Romanian citizens from the Republic of Moldova PollDateSampleGeoanăInd.CiolacuPSDSimionAURCiucăPNLȘoșoacăS.O.S.DrulăUSRKelemenUDMRCioloșREPERPiedonePUSLOthers/N/AiDATA22 – 26 Apr 20241,00615.03.12.43.44.80.71.05.56.1 58.0None of the above – 15% Don't know/No answer – 41.6% Dan Barna – 1.4% Dan Barna – 1,4%34.67.15.57.811.11.6Dan Barna 3.2%2.312.714.1 —CBS-Research6 – 13 Apr 20241,00814.14.71.02.44.1 0.9 — — — 72.844% of respondents indicated that they have not yet decided who they would vote for in the upcoming presidential elections in Romania, while 24.8% would not participate in the vote. 4.0% NR51.917.33.715.014.03.3 — — — —
Hypothetical second round
Geoană vs Ciolacu PollDateSampleGeoanăInd.CiolacuPSDINSCOP19 - 27 June 20241,100 63.736.3INSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,000 61.039.0AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,000 64.935.1
Geoană vs Simion PollDateSampleGeoanăInd.SimionAURINSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,000 75.025.0AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,000 71.828.2 INSCOP 15–22 Sep 2023 1,550 63.5 36.5AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,000 69.530.5
Geoană vs Ciucă PollDateSampleGeoanăInd.CiucăPNLINSCOP19–27 June 20241,100 63.936.1AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,000 76.223.8
Geoană vs Kövesi PollDateSampleGeoanăInd.KövesiInd.INSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,000 66.034.0AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,000 61.238.8AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,000 53.146.9
Geoană vs Lasconi PollDateSampleGeoanăInd.LasconiUSRINSCOP19 - 27 June 20241,200 66.233.8
Ciolacu vs Simion PollDateSampleCiolacuPSDSimionAURAtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,000 69.530.5 INSCOP 15–22 Sep 2023 1,550 58.8 41.2AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,000 54.145.9
Ciolacu vs Lasconi PollDateSampleCiolacuPSDLasconiUSRINSCOP19–27 June 20242,000 58.042.0
Ciolacu vs Drulă PollDateSampleCiolacuPSDDrulăUSRAtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,000 50.449.6
Ciolacu vs Ciucă PollDateSampleCiolacuPSDCiucăPNLINSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,000 63.037.0AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,000 51.748.3
Ciolacu vs Kövesi PollDateSampleKövesiInd.CiolacuPSDAtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,000 58.641.4AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,000 57.842.2
Trust in politicians PollDateSampleGeoanăInd.CiolacuPSDSimionAURCiucăPNLȘoșoacăS.O.S.LasconiUSRKelemenUDMRCioloșREPERKövesiInd.OthersINSCOP Research19–27 June 20241,10033.423.618.021.420.221.38.5———
Notes
References