2025 Portuguese legislative election

A snap legislative election took place in Portugal on 18 May 2025 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic for the 17th Legislature. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were up for election.

Following allegations of conflicts of interest in relation to the Prime Minister's family business, the incumbent government called a confidence vote, which it lost on 11 March 2025. The President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, then called an election for 18 May: the third legislative election in less than four years.

The centre-right to right-wing Democratic Alliance (AD), led by the incumbent Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, won the largest number of seats. Compared to the 2024 election, the AD increased its vote share to 32%, and received 91 seats. However, this still fell short of the 116 seats required for a majority. The far-right populist party Chega (CH) increased its vote share to nearly 23% and won 60 seats, thus becoming the second largest party in Parliament. The Socialist Party (PS) suffered one of its worst defeats ever, falling to a distant second place with also nearly 23% of the votes and finishing third place in terms of seats with 58.

Turnout in the election was 58.3%, the third highest since 2005, and in Portugal alone, turnout stood at 64.4%, a slight decrease compared with the 66.2% in the previous election in 2024.

Background The Democratic Alliance (AD), then composed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and the People's Monarchist Party (PPM), and led by PSD leader Luís Montenegro, won the 2024 legislative election by a very narrow margin, winning almost 29% of the votes and 80 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. The Socialist Party (PS), in power between 2015 and 2024 and led by Pedro Nuno Santos, elected in the aftermath of the resignation of then Prime Minister António Costa due to an investigation around alleged corruption involving the award of contracts for lithium and hydrogen businesses, saw a significant decrease in support, winning only 28% of the vote and 78 seats. The populist and far-right party Chega (CH) surged in the elections, gathering 18% of the votes and 50 seats in Parliament, becoming kingmaker with the best result for a third party in decades. The Liberal Initiative (IL) was able to hold on to its eight seats and gather 5% of the vote. The left-wing/far-left parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved, again, disappointing results, with BE holding on to its five seats and 4% of the votes, while the Communists' alliance got its worst result ever with just 3% of the votes and four seats. LIVRE nearly surpassed PCP by gathering also 3% of the votes and four seats. People Animals Nature (PAN) was able to win just one seat.

Eleven days after election day, on 21 March 2024, Luis Montenegro was asked by President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to form a government, a minority one in this case. The new government took office on 2 April 2024.

2025 budget crisis

Despite a sound economic situation, the lack of a workable majority forced the minority AD government to negotiate with opposition parties to pass important legislation, which created problems regarding the prospects for a 2025 budget. The Government decided to negotiate with the Socialist Party (PS), however, the odds of a positive outcome from these negotiations were considered slim, at first, since the PS rejected corporate tax cuts and the proposed "Youth IRS" scheme, which would provide an income tax rate cut for young people under the age of 35, while accusing the government of not giving in. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warned that a lack of a deal could lead to a snap legislative election, and admitted he was putting pressure on both major parties to reach a deal.

On 3 October 2024, Luís Montenegro "dropped" several parts of his government's Youth IRS scheme and corporate tax cuts by bringing his new proposals closer to policies defended by the PS, calling it an "irrefutable proposal" for the Socialists. Pedro Nuno Santos recognized the concessions made by the government, but pressed for more conditions on corporate tax cuts, mainly on their timing. The Prime Minister rejected these last conditions made by the PS, but said he was "confident" in the budget being approved by Parliament.

On 17 October 2024, the general-secretary of PS, Pedro Nuno Santos, announced that the Socialist Party would abstain in the budget vote, thus ensuring the approval of the document with the sole votes of the AD coalition. On 31 October, Parliament passed the budget in its first general reading by an 80–72 vote, with the 78 PS members abstaining. On the final vote, on 29 November 2024, the budget was confirmed by a 79–72 vote, with 77 PS members abstaining.

Spinumviva case On 15 February 2025, Correio da Manhã newspaper published an investigation in which it was stated that Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's family had a business with real estate interests, called Spinumviva. Montenegro confirmed the existence of the company, but denied any conflict of interest, saying he had sold his shares to his wife in 2022. Chega criticized the lack of answers from Montenegro and presented a motion of no confidence. This was rejected by Parliament by 171 against to 49 in favour. It was later revealed that Montenegro's sale of his shares to his wife was invalid, as the law does not allow share sales between spouses, thus making Montenegro still an active shareholder of the company. This raised further questions of possible conflicts of interest and Montenegro was strongly pressed to reveal the full list of clients of his business, but he refused to do this.

Two weeks later, on 28 February, Expresso newspaper reported that Spinumviva has been receiving a monthly payment of €4,500 from one of their main clients, , a casino company, since 2021, which continued while Montenegro was Prime Minister. In the aftermath of this report, Spinumviva also disclosed the full list of clients and the services provided. Parties demanded more explanations from the Prime Minister, with Chega demanding his resignation. On the same day, Montenegro announced an emergency cabinet meeting for 1 March, to "analyze his personal and political situation". He announced that the Government would request a motion of confidence if Parliament did not "validate" the Government. The PCP presented a motion of no confidence but the Socialist Party (PS) opposed this motion. A few days later, the Public Prosecution Service announced that it had received an anonymous tip against Luís Montenegro and his company, initially saying that it was examining the complaint, but later opening a preliminary investigation into the matter, while the Socialist Party announced a Parliamentary inquiry committee to also investigate the case. On 5 March, the Communists' motion was rejected, 88 votes against to 14 in favour, with 126 abstentions, but Luís Montenegro announced a vote of confidence, which was scheduled for 11 March. The Public Prosecutor's Office closed the preliminary investigation, with no charges filed, in December 2025, 9 months after it was opened.

Fall of the government

On 11 March 2025, Luís Montenegro's government fell after losing a vote of confidence in Parliament, 137 against with 87 in favour. After the results of the motion were announced, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa held meetings with party leaders on 12 March, and a Council of State meeting on 13 March. Later on the same day, 13 March, Rebelo de Sousa announced the dissolution of Parliament and the calling of an election for 18 May 2025.

Leadership changes and challenges

Liberal Initiative On 8 April 2024, former 2021 presidential candidate Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, announced a manifesto called "United by liberalism" and said he would be a candidate for the party's leadership, thus challenging incumbent leader Rui Rocha. On 20 June 2024, Mayan Gonçalves officially launched his bid for the party's leadership. A few months later, after it was revealed that he had forged signatures during his time as Parish President of Aldoar, Foz do Douro e Nevogilde, he dropped out from the leadership race. A leadership convention was scheduled for 1 and 2 February 2025, with party leader Rui Rocha running for another term. After the withdrawal of Mayan Gonçalves, Rui Malheiro, a party councillor, announced his bid against Rocha. On 2 February 2025, during the party's convention held in Loures with 1,545 members registered to vote, Rocha was reelected with more than 73% of the votes:

Chega Despite facing no challenges to his leadership, André Ventura's re-elections as party leader were deemed invalid by the Constitutional Court, following complaints filed by party members regarding illegal formal and procedural acts, with the party's January 2023 leadership convention being invalidated. In response, a new convention was held in January 2024, but this too was ruled as invalid by the Court in March 2025.

Date According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election. If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. In normal circumstances, the next legislative election would, therefore, have taken place no later than 8 October 2028, but it was called early for 18 May 2025.

2025 Portuguese legislative election

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