This page lists opinion polling for a United Ireland also known as a New Ireland.
In Northern Ireland
The Good Friday Agreement states that the Secretary of State should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."
Date Polling organisation/clientSample size Yes No Undecided Will not vote LeadExcluding don't knowNotes8-22 May 2026The Institute of Irish Studies/Sunday Times NI Survey1,534 4.7% "do not know" and 9.8% "neither agree/disagree"26 September - 14 December 2025Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 20251,244 36%9%5%14-17 February 2025LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph1,05041%10%1%6 September - 19 November 2024Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2024 1,19936%11%5%August-September 2024ARINS/Irish Times1,00034%14%19 July - 27 August 2024Social Market Research Belfast2,03433.7%14%3.7%9–12 February 2024LucidTalk3,20739%11%1%November 2023ARINS/ The Irish Times1,01930%15%5%26 October – 3 November 2023The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research1,07431%9% N/A17–30 June 2023The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research1,01736.1%10%6.2%14 January – 7 September 2023Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 20231,20035%10%5%5 September – 20 November 2022Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey1,40535%10%4%17 August 2022 – 15 October 2022ARINS/The Irish Times1,00927%23%August 2022LucidTalk3,38441%11%11–26 March 2022University of Liverpool/The Irish News1,00030.0%*18.7%6%15–18 November 2021Lord Ashcroft3,30141%8%October–December 2021 Life & Times1,39734%11%4%October 2021University of Liverpool 1,00229.8%9.1%2.5%20–23 August 2021LucidTalk 2,40342%9%0%June 2021Life & Times 30%9%5%May 2021Belfast Telegraph/Kantar 35%21%April 2021LucidTalk 43%8%February 2021 Savanta ComRes/ITV News 36%15%January 2021 Lucid Talk/The Sunday Times 42.3%10.7%Brexit transition period ends and UK leaves the European Union, 31 December 2020February 2020 LucidTalk 45%8%February 2020 Liverpool University 29%19%September 2019 Lord Ashcroft 1,54245%9%March 2019 Irish Times/Ipsos Mori 32%23%June 2018Lord Ashcroft 44%7%June 2018NILT 22%10%12%May 2018LucidTalk/YouGov/BBC 42%12.7%0.2%May 2018ICM 21%18.9%9.7%October 2017LucidTalk 34%9.8%1.1%July 2017ESRC 27%21%August 2016Ipsos Mori22%13%2%Brexit referendum, 23 June 2016Scottish independence referendum, 18 September 2014January 2013Spotlight17%5%12%November 2003Millward Brown Ulster105826%13%October-January 2002NI Life and Times Survey180027%10%6%May 2001Millward Brown Ulster27%15%June 1998Millward Brown Ulster25%12%Belfast Good Friday Agreement is signed, 10 April 1998
Non-standard question DatePolling organisation/clientSampleYes (remain in UK)No (for a united Ireland)Don't knowLeadNon standard question8-22 May 2026The Institute of Irish Studies/Sunday Times NI Survey1,53428.3%10.3%‘would you vote yes tomorrow for NI to remain in the UK’ (Q1)
In the future DatePolling organisation/clientSampleYesNoUndecidedWill not voteLeadNon standard question2025LucidTalk/Belfast TelegraphIn 20 years9–12 February 2024LucidTalk 3,20744% – –At some point in the future17–30 June 2023The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research –36% – –In 15–20 yearsAugust 2022LucidTalk 3,38444%4% –If a referendum was held in 15–20 years time.11–26 March 2022University of Liverpool/The Irish News1,00033.4%*17.9%*7.6%In 15–20 years *"Neither Agree/Disagree"October 2015RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI1,40730%27% –"...in your lifetime?"
EU membership of United Ireland or Brexit scenarios DatePolling organisation/clientSampleYesNoUndecidedWill not voteLeadNon standard questionMarch 26-31 2026Amárach Research/European Movement Ireland1,20029% - -Poll held across Ireland with the questionOctober–November 2018LucidTalk1,33448%48%4% –EvenIf Northern Ireland left the EU on terms negotiated between the UK government and the EUOctober–November 2018LucidTalk1,33442%3% –No deal scenarioOctober–November 2018LucidTalk1,33429%11% –If the UK remained an EU member stateSeptember 2018OFOC/Deltapoll 39%9%"Imagine now that the UK decided to LEAVE the EU..."December 2017LucidTalk 45%6%0.7%In the context of a hard Brexit
Healthcare DatePolling organisation/clientYesNoUndecidedWill not voteLeadNon standard questionOctober 2020LucidTalk34%26%Reference to healthcare provision
By religion, age and region Meanwhile, 35- to 44-year-olds are also in favour of Irish unity with a 49% to 37% split.
However, older generations would still vote in favour of the Union as 55% of 45-54 year-olds are in favour compared to 36% for Irish unity while the gap widens amongst those aged over 55 to 51% to 34%.
2025 LucidTalk poll AnswerAge band<3535–4445–5455+Yes (to a United Ireland)36%34%No44%37%Lead
2024 poll AnswerAge band18–2425–3435–4445–5455–6465+Yes (to a United Ireland)42%28%36%No43%41%42%Don't know9%14%13%4%8%13%Lead
2022 poll AnswerAge bandReligion18–2425–3435–4445–5455–6465+No religionCatholicProtestantYes (to a United Ireland)36%34%33%26%36%8%No24%37%14%Don't know22%11%10%11%8%7%11%12%7%
2016 poll In 2016 an Ipsos MORI poll asked "If there was a referendum on the border tomorrow would you:" and the answers for different regions of Northern Ireland were as follows,
Belfast CityGreater BelfastDownArmaghTyrone/ FermanaghDerryAntrimVote to stay in the United KingdomVote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom17%10%27%41%28%28%17%Don't know17%10%13%7%19%16%6%Would not vote0%3%3%2%2%2%6% The same poll recorded answers from people in different age groups as follows, Age band18–2425–3435–4445–5455–6465+Vote to stay in the United KingdomVote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom19%19%30%28%22%14%Don't know12%15%18%13%13%7% Answers from people of different religious backgrounds were as follows, AnswerCommunity backgroundProtestantCatholicNeitherVote to stay in the United Kingdom37%Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom5%15%Don't know5%17%30%
2014 poll An opinion poll of 1,089 people conducted by LucidTalk in 2014 around the time of the Scottish referendum posed several questions. On the question of whether or not there should be a border poll, 47% said "yes", 37% "no" and 16% "don't know". On the question, "If a referendum on Irish Unity was called under the Good Friday Agreement would you vote: Yes for unity as soon as possible, Yes for unity in 20 years, or No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is", the results were as follows. AnswerAll personsReligionAge bandProtestantCatholic18–2425–4445–6465+Yes, for unity as soon as possible5.7%1.8%9.8%12.2%5.5%3.8%3.3%Yes, for unity in 20 years24.0%9.6%27.8%26.6%23.0%19.7%No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is20.7%No opinion/would not vote26.3%30.8%30.1%23.4%29.9%27.6%23.0%
In the Republic of Ireland Date Polling organisation/clientSample size Yes No Undecided Will not vote LeadNotesMarch 2026Amárach Research/European Movement Ireland1,20022%19%November 2023ARINS/ The Irish Times>1,00016%13%5%August & September 2022The Irish Times/Arins Project1,000 voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic16%13%5%December 2021Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI1,200 16%13%8%November 2021Business Post/Red C1,00125%15%March 2021RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research1,00019%28%"Is it time for a united Ireland?"May 2019RTÉ/REDCRandomly selected sample of 3,016 eligible voters outside 156 polling stations 19%15%January 2019RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research1,00021%25%"Are you in favour of a united Ireland"March 2017RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research1,20029%22%December 2016RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research 32% 22% "Is it time to have a united Ireland" 54% aged 25–34 said yesOctober 2010Red C/Sunday Times1,00522%21%
Short to medium term "In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should..." (October 2015)ProportionRemain part of the UK, with direct rule from Westminster9%Remain part of the UK, with a devolved assembly and Executive in Northern Ireland (the current situation)35%Unify with the rest of Ireland36%Other1%None of these2%Don't know17%
Long term DatePolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecidedLeadNotesFebruary 2019RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research1,00018%19%"in their lifetime"October 2015RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI1,40714%20%"in your lifetime?"
When asked about tax "Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ..." (October 2015)You would have to pay less taxThere would be no change in the amount of tax you payYou would have to pay more taxIn favour of a united Ireland31%Against a united Ireland8%14%Don't know18%24%25%
In Great Britain A 2019 poll by Ipsos Mori and King's College London asked people in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided. It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters.
A 2023 state of the union poll asking if Ireland should unite showed that respondents from Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England all had net positive views on the unification. On a scale from −10 to definitely remain in the UK to +10 to definitely unite Ireland; the people of Scotland had a net score of +1.9, England at +0.9, Wales at +0.6, and those in Northern Ireland at +0.6 also.
See also Opinion polling on Scottish independence Next Northern Ireland Assembly election#Opinion polling Opinion polling for the 2024 Irish general election
References