Opinion polling on Welsh independence

Opinion polling on Welsh independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The dates for these opinion polls range from January 2007 to the present day. Polling was initially sporadic, but was then carried out almost every month from January 2021 until June 2024, and has been sporadic again since. The question typically asked by pollsters is "Should Wales be an independent country?".

Public opinion Graphical summary A graphical summary of yes/no independence polls, excluding non-standard questions.

Yes/No Independence polls

Date(s) conductedPolling organisation& clientSamplesizeShould Wales be anindependent country?LeadNotesYesNoUndecided7-13 September 2026YouGov84520%tbctbctbc13–24 August 2026Survation102326%51%23%25% 2026 Senedd election 5–12 January 2026YouGov / BarnCymru122026%54%12%28%24–27 March 2025Redfield and Wilton Strategies96035%50%15%15%2–8 September 2024YouGov120724%61%15%37%5–7 June 2024Redfield and Wilton Strategies96033%57%10%24%18–19 May 2024Redfield and Wilton Strategies90029%59%12%30%23–24 March 2024Redfield and Wilton Strategies87830%58%11%28%18 February 2024Redfield and Wilton Strategies87427%61%12%34%24–26 January 2024Redfield and Wilton Strategies1,10030%59%11%29%10–11 December 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,08634%58%9%24%4–7 December 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru1,00422%56%14%34%12–13 November 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,10033%56%12%23%14–15 October 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies95931%59%9%28%1–6 September 2023YouGov22%56%13%34%13–14 August 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,06833%53%14%20%14–16 July 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,05032%58%10%26%17–18 June 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,00030%57%13%27%12–17 May 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru1,06420%54%15%34%14–15 May 2023 Redfield and Wilton Strategies1,05832%58%11% 26%15–17 April 2023Redfield and Wilton Strategies1,25129%60%11% 31%17–23 Feb 2023YouGov / WalesOnline1,08318%55%16% 37%25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,04222%55%14% 33%21–25 November 2022YouGov / YesCymru1,03323%54%13% 31%20–22 September 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,01424%52%14% 28% Age 16+16–19 August 2022YouGov / The Sunday Times1,02530%48%13%18%Non-standard question: If Liz Truss became Prime Minister of the UK16–19 August 2022YouGov / The Sunday Times1,02525%53%12% 28%12–16 June 2022YouGov / ITV Wales1,02025%50%25% 25%25 Feb – 1 March 2022YouGov/ Barn Cymru1,086 21%53% 26% 32%Age 16+ 2021 Senedd election 5 May 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,002 30%55% 15% 25%Taken with 29 April – 4 May 2021 poll, online 2–4 May 2021YouGov / Welsh Barometer 1,07121%55% 14% 34% 29 April – 4 May 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,002 27%58% 14% 31%Online 23–28 April 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,002 42%49% 8% 7%46% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever level of support. 18–21 April 2021 YouGov 1,142 22%54% 24% 32%Age 16+ 9–19 April 2021 Opinium / Sky News 2,005 28%52% 19% 24% 16–19 March 2021 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,174 22%55% 23% 33%Age 16+ 18–22 February 2021 Savanta ComRes / ITV News 1,003 35%55% 10% 20%39% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever support at the time. Age 16+. 19–22 February 2021 WalesOnline / YouGov 1,059 25%50% 14% 25%Age 16+ 18–21 January 2021 The Sunday Times / YouGov 1,059 23%52% 25% 29%Age 16+ 11–14 January 2021 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,018 22%53% 25% 31%Age 16+ 26–29 October 2020 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,013 23%53% 25% 30%Age 16+ 24–27 August 2020 YesCymru / YouGov 1,044 25%52% 23% 27% 29 July – 7 August 2020 YesCymru / YouGov 1,044 26%55% 19% 29%Age 16+ 29 May – 1 June 2020 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni 1,021 25%54% 21% 29% 20–26 January 2020 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,037 21%57% 22% 36%Age 16+ 6–9 December 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,020 17%60% 23% 43% 22–25 November 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,116 20%57% 22% 37% 31 October – 4 November 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,032 22%57% 21% 35% 10–14 October 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,032 21%57% 23% 36% 6–10 September 2019 Plaid Cymru / YouGov 1,039 24%52% 23% 28% 6–10 September 2019 Plaid Cymru / YouGov 1,039 33%48% 20%15%Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European Union 7–14 December 2018 Sky News Data: Wales 1,014 17% 67% 16% 50% 30 May – 6 June 2018 YouGov 2,016 19%65% 16% 46% July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,010 15%65% 20% 50% July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,010 28%53% 20%25% Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European UnionJuly 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,010 19%61% 21%42% Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK 2016 Senedd election 8–11 September 2014 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff University >1,000 17%70% 13% 53%The week before the Scottish independence referendum April 2014 YouGov 1,000 12%74% 14% 62% March 2013 ITV Wales / YouGov Unknown 10%62% 28%52% Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK 2011 National Assembly for Wales election 5–8 January 2007BBC / Opinion Research Business52719%69%13%50%Would you like the Union to continue as it is or would you like to see it come to an end?If it were to end this would mean that Wales became an independent country.

"0–10" Independence polls – (Respondents asked to rate 0–10. 0–4 Against, 5 indifferent, 6–10 In Favour. "Don't Know" removed) Date(s) conductedPolling organisation& clientSample sizeTotalfavourableIn favour IndifferentAgainstTotalunfavourable10 9876543210 10–15 May 2019YesCymru / YouGov1,13336%14%4%5%6%7%17%5%6%6%2%28%47%9–12 May 2017YesCymru / YouGov1,00029%10%2%6%6%5%18%4%6%7%5%31%53%

By age (August 2026) Age groupNoYesDo not knowLead18–2429% 41%29% 12%25–3435% 39%24% 4%35–4429% 38%32% 9%45–5451%21%28%30%55–6456%22%22%34%65+74%12%24%62%

By age (January 2026) Age groupNoYesDo not knowLead18–2429% 47%14% 18%25–4948%29%16%19%50–6458%20%12%38%65+72%17%7%55%

By age (February 2023) Age groupNoYesDo not knowLead18–2441%20%16%21%25–4944%18%23%26%50–6459%22%12%37%65+72%12%11%60%

Devolution extent polls Date(s)Conducted Polling organisation Supportindependence (%) Support morepowers forthe Senedd (%) Supportstatus quo (%) Support fewerpowers forthe Senedd (%) Support abolitionof the Senedd (%) Indifferent/Didnot reply/Other (%)5-25 June 2023Beaufort Research / WalesOnline1623256171312-17 May 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru132120720163-7 February 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru1520217201625 November - 1 December 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1421237201420-22 September 2022YouGov1719217191528 January – 21 February 2021 BBC / ICM Unlimited14 35 27 315 629 May – 1 June 2020 ITV Wales & Cardiff University / YouGov1620 24522144–22 February 2020 BBC / ICM11 432521437–23 February 2019 BBC / ICM7 46273134December 2018 SkyData8 40234187February 2017 BBC / ICM 6 44293134February 2016 BBC / ICM6 43303134February 2015 BBC / ICM6 40334134September 2014 BBC / ICM3 49262126February 2014 BBC / ICM5 372832352013BBC / ICM9362822042012BBC / ICM7362922242011BBC / ICM113518171542010BBC / ICM11401318134 Side by side polls – Independence vs. No devolved government in Wales Date(s)conductedPolling Organisation& clientSample sizeIndependence(inc. sub-samples)No devolved government(inc. sub-samples)Indifferent/ no reply (%)Total (%)Conservative (%)Labour (%)Lib Dem (%)Plaid Cymru (%)Total (%)Conservative (%)Labour (%)Lib Dem (%)Plaid Cymru (%)29 May – 1 June 2020ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni1,02133%12%45%39%87%45%79%35%53%4%21%

See also Proposed Welsh independence referendum#Opinion polling

References