Opinion polling for the 2024 French legislative election

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the snap 2024 French legislative election, which was held in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024. Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission and utilize the quota method. Sample sizes listed are for registered voters, and polls are listed in reverse chronological then alphabetical order by name of institute.

National polling

Graphical summary

First round The 20:00 CEST estimations made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier. Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnoutEXGNFPDVGECOENSDVCDSVDVDLR(CNI)RN and alliesRECREGOthersMinistry of the Interior66.71%1.14%28.21%1.57%0.57%21.28%1.22%0.28%3.60%6.57%3.96%29.26%0.75%0.97%0.63%Elaberowspan="5" 20:00CEST67.5%1.5%28.5%1.5%–22.0%0.5%10.5%33.0%0.5%–2.0%Harris Interactive67.0%–29.6%–22.4%–10.0%34.2%1.0%–2.8% Ifop67.0%1.3%29.1%––21.5%––10.0%34.2%0.6%–3.3% Ipsos65.5%1.2%28.1%1.8%–20.3%1.4%0.3%10.2%4.0%30.0%0.6%–2.1% OpinionWay67.5%1.5%29.0%––22.0%––9.0%34.0%1.0%–3.5%Harris Interactive2,182–0.5%28%1%–20%1%0.5%2%6%3%34%2%–2%Ipsos 10,28664%1%29%1%–20%1.5%0.5%8%4%32%1%–2% Ifop 2,82467%1%29%1%–20.5%0.5%–7%36.5%1.5%–3%Elabe1,87164%1%27.5%2%–20%0.5%0.5%9%36%1.5%–2% Odoxa 1,89666%1%27.5%1.5%1%21%––2%7%35%1.5%–2.5%OpinionWay 1,05865%1%28%1%<1%20%––2%6%37%1%–4%Cluster172,46565%1.5%29.5%1%–20%1%–1.5%7.5%4%31%1.5%–1.5% Ifop 2,82366%0.5%29%1%–21%1%–6.5%36%1.5%–3.5%Harris Interactive2,014–0.5%27%1%–21%0.5%0.5%2%6%3%34%2%–2.5%OpinionWay 1,035–1%28%1%1%20%––2%7%36%2%–2% Ifop 2,34366%1%28.5%1%–21%1%–6%36%1%–4.5% Ifop 2,33564.5%1%28.5%0.5%–21%1%–6.5%36%1.5%–4%Cluster172,47064.5%1.5%30%1.5%–19.5%1%–1.5%7.5%4%30.5%1.5%–1.5%Harris Interactive2,004–1%27%1%–20%1%0.5%2%7%4%33%2%–1.5%Ipsos 11,82063%1%29%1%–19.5%1.5%0.5%8%4%32%1.5%–2%OpinionWay 3,04058%1%28%1%<1%19%––4%7%36%1%–3% Ifop 1,84363.5%1%29.5%1%–20.5%1%–7%36%1%–3% Ifop 1,85364%1.5%29%1%–21%1%–7%35.5%1%–3%Elabe1,87063%1%27%2%–20%0.5%0.5%10%36%1.5%–1.5% Ifop 2,31764%1%29%1%–21.5%1%–6.5%35%1.5%–3.5%Harris Interactive2,004–1%26%1%–21%1%0.5%2%6%2%33%3%–3.5%Ipsos 2,00062%1.5%29.5%1%–19.5%1%1.5%7%4%31.5%2%–1.5% Odoxa 1,86164%2%28%3%1.5%19%––1%7%33%3.5%–2%OpinionWay 1,009–1%28%1%<1%22%––3%6%35%1%–3% Ifop 1,86164%1%29%1%–22%1%–6%34%2%–4%OpinionWay 1,057–<1%27%2%1%20%––2%7%35%2%–4%Cluster172,65460.5%1%30%3%–19%––2.5%7%32%2.5%–3% Ifop 1,13162%1.5%28%3%–18%–0.5%2%5%4%33%3%–2%Ifop1,11463%1%26%3.5%–19%–1%1.5%7%35%3%–3%OpinionWay 1,011–1%25%2%2%20%––2%7%33% 3%–5%Cluster172,76460%1%28.5%3%1.5%18%1%1.5%2.5%7%29.5%3.5%1%2%Elabe1,42257%1%28%5%–18%––2%6.5%31%4%–4.5%OpinionWay 1,019–1%25%3%1%19%––1%9%32%4%–5%Ifop rowspan="3" 1,089–1%25%5%–18%–0.5%1.5%9%35%4%–1%1%11%19%3%–17%–<0.5%2%8%34%4%–1%1%11%2%6%13%2%–16%–0.5%1%8%35%3.5%–1%OpinionWay1,095–1%23%4%2%18%––2%8%33%5%–4%Harris Interactive2,340–3%22%9%–19%––9%34%4%––Ifoprowspan=2 1,100–1.5%24%6%–19%–1%3%11%28%5%–1.5%1%10%4%9%8%2%–18%–1%3%10%27%6%–1%Elabe1,699–1%25.5%3%–21.5%–1.5%1%11.5%24.5%4.5%–6%Ifop rowspan="2" 1,094–1%26%5%–22%–1%2%10%26%5%–2%1%11%3%9%7%3%–21%–1%1%10%26%5%–2%Harris Interactive2,108–1%24%6%– 24%1%1%3%10%22%4%–4%Cluster172,09656.9%1.5%24.5%3%1% 25%0.5%2%2%10.5%20%5%1%4%Ifop rowspan="2" 1,396–1.5%25%4%– 27%–0.5%2%11%21%5.5%–2.5%1.5%11%3%7%8%2%–26%–0%3%11%21%5%–1.5%Ministry of the Interior47.51%1.17%25.66%3.70%2.67%25.75%1.25%1.13%2.33%11.29%18.68%4.24%1.28%0.85%

Seat projections Even though polls since the publication of the official list of candidates by the Ministry of the Interior ask about the specific candidates within each constituency, seat projections should be treated with a significant level of precaution due to their numerous sources of uncertainty which include but are not limited to: the large historical error associated with these seat projections outside of the margins of uncertainty reported by pollsters; the fact that the legislative election is based on two rounds of voting with 577 varying configurations of candidates in different constituencies, rather than a national party list vote; the number of constituencies with second rounds featuring more than two candidates (due to the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters to appear in the second round); the need to make inferences about first-to-second round vote transfers between candidates based on historical voting patterns; the fact that only residents of metropolitan France are usually surveyed, excluding constituencies of overseas France and constituencies for French residents overseas; the unpredictability of eliminated candidates' voting instructions in the aftermath of the first round and candidate withdrawals in constituencies with three or more candidates advancing to the second round; and the fact that these projections are agnostic to local factors such as the strength of specific incumbent deputies because they are not made on a constituency-by-constituency basis (and no national polls have a large enough sample size to detect such anomalies), and are instead based on simulations using the aforementioned inferences on the basis of national-level polling with a representative sample in terms of gender, age, region, urbanicity, and socio-economic status (among other variables) projected onto each constituency. Due to these uncertainties, certain polling institutes opt not to release seat projections alongside topline voting intention figures prior to the first round, and only publish such projections after the results of that initial voting is known.

These seat projections are not subject to the same regulations of the national polling committee as regular voting intention polls are.

The precautions above also apply to the estimations released by pollsters at 20:00 CEST on the day of the first round, though may be slightly more reliable due to asking about several second-round hypotheses based on large number of survey interviews conducted in the hours just prior to the day of the vote. As with the vote percentage estimations after the first round, seat projections produced after the second round made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier. At least 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority. Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnoutNFPDVGENSDVCDVDLR(CNI)RN and alliesDSVOthersMinistry of the Interior66.63%180121596273917125012Elaberowspan="5" 20:00CEST67.1%175–20511–13150–17560–70115–1500–110–14Harris Interactive67.1%83–908–1037–4158–7013150–18260–758–18102–140–10–15 Ifop67.5%180–21510150–180–60–65120–150–5–6 Ipsos67.0%68–7410–1232–3663–6913–1695–10531–3724–286–857–6712–16120–136–22–30OpinionWay67.0%180–210155–17546–56135–155–15–25Cluster171,401–165–195–130–160––30–50170–210–15–30Harris Interactive2,951–168–198–115–145––32–63185–215–15–30 Ifop 2,85969%155–18510–18120–150–50–65170–210–5–15Elabe2,00565%165–190120–140–35–50200–230–10–12 Ifop 1,91668%170–200–95–125–25–45210–240–15–27 Ipsos 10,10168%58–687–929–3751–6114–1678–9423–3117–236–857–6718–24157–181–8–12 Odoxa 952–140–180115–155–40–60210–250–10–20 OpinionWay 3,355–145–175–130–162–38–50205–230–8–12 OpinionWay ––150–180–125–155–38–50205–230–8–12Harris Interactive3,008–159–183–110–135––30–50190–220–17–31Elaberowspan="5" Mostrecent–120–14011–1290–12535–45255–2950–110–14Harris Interactive140–19070–12030–5030–45210–2600–210–20 Ifop180–200–60–90–30–50240–270–13–21 Ipsos58–726–1228–3833–4311–1953–7113–194–10–41–6126–36204–244–22–30OpinionWay130–17065–10530–50250–300–24–30Harris Interactive2,182–120–150–80–130––30–5020–35220–2600–210–20 Ifop 2,824–170–20010–1870–100–30–60225–265–1–5Elabe1,871–155–17585–105–30–40260–295–8–10 Odoxa 1,896–150–19070–110–15–45265–305––Cluster172,465–180–220–65–110––25–35210–255–20–30 Ifop 2,823–180–2105–975–110–25–50220–260–6–10Harris Interactive2,014–125–155–75–125––30–5020–35230–2700–210–20Ifop2,343–180–2105–975–110–23–50220–260–5–9Ifop2,335–180–2105–975–110–25–50220–260–4–8Cluster172,470–180–230–65–100––25–40210–250–20–30Harris Interactive2,044–150–180–85–130––30–5015–30215–2450–210–20Ifop1,843–185–2156–1070–100–30–50220–260–3–7Ifop1,853–180–2107–1175–105–40–60210–250–3–8Elabe1,870–150–17090–110–35–45250–280–10–12Ifop2,317–180–2108–1280–110–40–60200–240–5–10Harris Interactive2,004–135–165–95–130––30–5015–30220–2500–210–20Odoxa1,861–160–21070–120–10–50250–300––Cluster172,654–190–240–70–100––20–30200–250–20–30Cluster172,764–190–23510–1470–100––23–35195–245–10–16Elabe1,422–150–19090–130–30–40220–270–10–20Harris-Interactive2,340–115–145–125–155–40–55235–2650–25–20Ipsos 4,000–55–7920–22117–16537–844–60243–305–10–11Elabe1,699–150–18015–20130–15560–75150–1751–212–15Harris-Interactive2,108–158–168234–24469–7991–1008–14Ministry of the Interior46.23%1312224547489111

By second round configuration Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnoutNFP (any party)NFP(dependson party)ENSLR(CNI)RN/blank/null vote/don't know CSA1,009–32%–––––– 41%27% OpinionWayrowspan="3" 69364% 36%34%–30%–86062%47%–– 53%–81363%––––– 52%–48%– Ifoprowspan="6" 1,118–42%–––– 58%––– 50%–––––– 50%–––48%– 52%––––– 53%–––47%–––––– 53%–47%––––––– 56%44%– Ipsosrowspan="3" 10,286–32%–––––– 41%27%––38%–––– 41%21%––– 40%–––39%21%OpinionWayrowspan="3" 3,040–26% 29%––45%33%–– 40%27%–––––29%– 34%37%Odoxarowspan="2" 1,005–25%9%––38%28%17%10%21%–34%18%OpinionWayrowspan="2" 1,044–33%––41%26%––––– 40%– 37%23%

By first round vote NFP–ENS–RN Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeFirst round vote NFP/DVG ENS RN/UXDNone of theseElaberowspan="3" 2,005NFP/DVG87%3%1%9%ENS2%83%0%15%RN/UXD1%1%87%11% OpinionWayrowspan="4" 693NFP/DVG96%1%2%1%ENS9%86%0%5%LR/DVD5%18%60%17%RN/UXD1%1%98%0%

NFP–RN Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeFirst round vote NFP/DVG RN/UXDNone of theseElaberowspan="3" 2,005NFP/DVG86%3%11%ENS32%18%50%RN/UXD1%92%7% OpinionWayrowspan="4" 860NFP/DVG98%0%2%ENS48%16%36%LR/DVD18%51%31%RN/UXD0%99%1%

LFI–ENS Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeFirst round vote LFI ENSNone of these Ifoprowspan="4" 1,118NFP/DVG88%12%–ENS10%90%–LR/DVD23%77%–RN/UXD25%75%–

LFI–RN Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeFirst round vote LFI RN/UXDNone of these CSArowspan="4" 1,009NFP/DVG87%5%8%ENS37%13%50%LR/DVD15%38%47%RN/UXD0%98%2% Ifoprowspan="4" 1,118NFP/DVG98%2%–ENS66%34%–LR/DVD41%59%–RN/UXD2%98%–

PS/LE–ENS Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeFirst round vote PS/LE ENSNone of these Ifoprowspan="4" 1,118NFP/DVG94%6%–ENS14%86%–LR/DVD31%69%–RN/UXD29%71%–

PS/LE–RN Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeFirst round vote PS/LE RN/UXDNone of these Ifoprowspan="4" 1,118NFP/DVG95%5%–ENS77%23%–LR/DVD52%48%–RN/UXD2%98%–

ENS–RN Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeFirst round vote ENS RN/UXDNone of theseElaberowspan="3" 2,005NFP/DVG62%6%32%ENS81%8%11%RN/UXD2%88%10% OpinionWayrowspan="4" 813NFP/DVG56%17%27%ENS93%5%2%LR/DVD56%40%4%RN/UXD2%97%1% Ifoprowspan="4" 1,118NFP/DVG84%16%–ENS92%8%–LR/DVD57%43%–RN/UXD3%97%–

LR–RN Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeFirst round vote LR/DVD RN/UXDNone of theseElaberowspan="3" 2,005NFP/DVG57%5%38%LR/DVD90%2%8%RN/UXD1%87%12% Ifoprowspan="4" 1,118NFP/DVG87%13%–ENS90%10%–LR/DVD81%19%–RN/UXD5%95%–

By constituency Because the configuration of the second round, if any, is contingent on the level of turnout in the first round, only the top-placed candidate is highlighted in first-round polls below.

Alpes-Maritimes's 1st

First round Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeAlain LangouetOlivier SalernoGraig MonettiLalla Chama Ben MoulayVirgile Vanier-GuérinÉric CiottiJean-Claude Wahid SpachMaxime BovisMinistry of the Interior0.62%26.62%22.79%2.81%5.78%41.04%0.27%0.07%Ifop5430.5%26%22%3%5.5%42%0.5%0.5%

Second round Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeOlivier SalernoGraig MonettiÉric CiottiMinistry of the Interior32.13%22.73%45.14%Ifoprowspan="2" 54327%27%46%40%–60%