In the run up to the Guatemalan general election scheduled to take place on 25 June 2023, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Guatemala. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.
Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.
First round Graphical summary
Official campaign polling The table below contains polls conducted after the official start of the campaign period in March 2023. Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others No one 2023 general election 25 June 2023 15.5% 9.4% 10.4% 8.8% 8.7% 3.3% 21.1% 5.6% 17.2% Carlos Pineda 21 Jun 2023 6.7% 4.4% 4.5% 17.9% 16.1% 2.4% 16.6% 13.8% 14.3% 3.4% Espacio Muestral 16–19 Jun 2023 1,200 15.5% 19.1% 17.8% 11.4%36.2% C&E Research 13 Jun 2023 400 1.0% 21.0% 22.0% 1.0% 23.0% 9.0% 23.0% Grupo Impacto 360 900 16.8% 25.5% 21.5% 17.3% 18.9%Prodatos / Prensa Libre 5–14 Jun 2023 1,202 2.9% 5.2% 5.8% 13.4% 9.1% 5.3% 21.3% 5.2% 18.3% 13.5% ConDatos Jun 2023 840 6.8% 4.3% 5.5% 13.6% 11.1% 5.0% 13.9% 11.3% 19.1% 9.4% 1,004 8.3% 16.0% 19.8% 19.2% 1.4% 19.2% 4.6%2.1% 2.5% 11.9% 14.7% 17.3%1.6% 15.9% 22.1% 7.6%19 May 2023Carlos Pineda's candidacy was suspended by the courts Grupo Impacto 360 900 14.6%20.1%22.9% 17.9% 13.2%11.3% 8,1760.7%0.4%2.9%8.0%16.5%10.0%1.2%20.0%1.5%7.5%31.3%10–20 May 20231,204 2.0%4.0%14.0% 22.0%16.0%2.0%20.0%2.0%11.0%7.0% 2.0%4.0%21.0%19.0%2.0%23.0%2.0%12.0%16.0%TResearch International1,000 2.3%16.3%20.9%19.6% 17.4%4.1%12.3%7.1%Massive Caller 1,000 3.8%13.5%19.8%8.6% 5.2%17.2%31.9%TResearch International 1,000 3.4%17.5%18.0%19.2% 18.4%4.0%13.7%5.7%Nuestro Diario 1,7232.0% 2.4%10.4% 28.3%10.0% 3.3%10.3% 4.7%19.0%11.6%C&E Research16–22 Apr 20232,400 1.6% 3.4%11.1%9.5%14.3%1.0%16.5% 8.8% 33.2%1.0%0.9%4.6%11.5%9.5%13.5%1.7%17.5% 15.0%24.8%Prodatos / Prensa Libre14–23 Apr 20231,202 0.7%1.8%5.0%10.1%23.1%9.2%3.4%19.5%3.1%17.8%6.3%TResearch International17 Apr 2023 4.5%19.1%10.2%22.1% 17.8%3.9%15.2%7.2%Massive CallerApr 20231,000 3.2%14.1%11.3%13.5% 6.9% 15.8%35.2%8–12 Mar 20231,000 4.7%16.5%8.2%23.2% 17.7%4.9%13.4%11.4%
Sub-national polling Quetzaltenango Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others No one 9.6% 7.2% 12.1% 15.7% 20.5% 7.2% 27.7%
Pre-campaign polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others No oneMassive Caller10 March 20231,000 13.5%8.9%14.3%28.8%34.5%CID Gallup1,20013%7%10%20%21%15%14%Massive CallerFeb 20231,0004.8%10.5%13.6%7.5%14.6%13.4%35.6%Massive Caller7 Jan 20231,0006.2%11.3%13.4%7.0%14.4%13.4%34.3%Massive CallerDec 20221,0003.6%8.8%14.5%6.0%13.1%16.2%37.8% CID Gallup Dec 2022 – 9% 5% 4% 14%16% 12% 40%Massive CallerNov 20221,0004.6%7.1%15.7%5.4%14.1%17.3%34.3% CID Gallup / Con Criterio 9 Oct 2022 1,202 8.0% 6.0% 11.0% 14.0%22.0% 21.0% 18.0%Massive Caller9 Oct 20221,0005.1%9.2%14.1%5.8%15.5%12.0%38.3% C&E Research 28 Sep 2022 600 15.0% 14.0% 11.0% 21.0%32.0% 7.0% N/AMassive CallerSep 20221,0004.8%11.4%13.3%5.6%14.9%12.8%37.2%J. Napolitan y Asociados5–9 Sep 20221,80011.2%5.2%6.5%14.9%16.4%13.5%32.3%Datum29–31 Aug 20221,2006.0%8.0%9.0%12.0%14%20%31% C&E Research 3 Jul 2022 585 7.0% 5.0% 16.0% 29.0%31.0% 12.0% N/ATResearch International 3–5 May 2022 1,000 5.2% 5.6% 10.3% 13.5%25.2%40.2%
Second round Official campaign polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Arévalo Torres Blank/ Null 20 August 2023 —60.9% 39.1% — 1,20064.9%35.1%— 53.6% 29.0% 17.4% CID Gallup 1,819 64.0% 36.0% — CID Gallup 18–27 July 2023 1,242 63.0% 37.0% — Innovem 20–26 July 2023 3,773 37.8% 45.0% 17.2%
Favorable or unfavorable opinions Favorable opinions Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size TResearch International8–12 Mar 20231,0002.4%5.6%21.6%12.4%25.1%19.2%19.2%
Most favorite for president Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size TResearch International8–12 Mar 20231,0001.2%4.1%14.7%9.8%19.1%13.8%12.3%
Perception of triumph Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others No oneTResearch International8–12 Mar 20231,0003.5%14.9%5.9%23.4%19.8%4.2%10.0%18.1%
Notes
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