A significant late-season tornado outbreak took place on November 4, 2022, across Northeast Texas, southwestern Arkansas, southeastern Oklahoma, and northwestern Louisiana with multiple large, destructive tornadoes occurring over a span of several hours. Major damage was reported in Sulphur Springs, Powderly, Caviness, Paris, Cason, Daingerfield, Athens, New Boston, Texas, and Idabel, Oklahoma, with the latter two communities being placed under tornado emergencies. Two fatalities occurred in Cason, Texas, and Pickens, Oklahoma, respectively. Numerous PDS tornado warnings were issued as well. An additional tornado embedded within a narrow, but intense line of showers with damaging winds was also confirmed in Illinois the following morning as the system progressed eastward. Strong winds affected most of the western Great Lakes throughout the day before moving into Canada that evening. Two fatalities and at least 34 injuries were confirmed from tornadoes, and an additional fatality occurred near Stilwell, Oklahoma, from drowning.
Meteorological synopsis
The risk for a late-season severe weather event first became apparent on October 29 when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) delineated a threat area across portions of the United States Southern Plains. With some time, computer weather models began to indicate the potential for a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms farther east across portions of Northeastern Texas, Southeastern Oklahoma, and Southwestern Arkansas. On November 2, the SPC issued a Day 3 slight risk outlook, which had a rare upgrade to enhanced, highlighting a small corridor centered along northeastern Texas, extreme southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, and northwestern Louisiana. Elevated helicity, expected to be around 250 m2/s2, was expected to be coupled with a 50+ kt low-level jet in the area, providing the necessary ingredients for sustained supercells and embedded QLCS rotations, noting the possibilities for tornadoes, some significant. Tornadoes were expected to be most probable with any supercell that managed to spawn ahead of an expected cold front.
The next day, at 0600 UTC, the SPC expanded the enhanced risk area, while introducing a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes (indicating an elevated probability for strong tornadoes to occur), centered in northeastern Texas, and southeastern Oklahoma. With the newer models, more substantial destabilization was expected across the I-35 corridor, giving more favorable patterns for semi-discrete supercell structures to develop. Moisture, provided by sufficient daylight heating, was expected to mix with the predicted low-level jet, at around 500mb, would further improve the conditions for supercells. For the 1700 UTC outlook, the SPC increased the overall area of risk for significant tornadoes, now including regions of southwestern Arkansas.
The SPC issued a level 4/Moderate risk of severe weather for this region on the afternoon of November 4. Water vapor imagery the morning of the event depicted a large upper-level trough moving across New Mexico, with accompanied mid-level winds upwards of entering Western Texas. At the surface, the expected, stout cold front was progressing southward across Southern Oklahoma. In the warm sector ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds supplied the northward transport of moisture. Morning atmospheric soundings from the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex indicated the presence of a stout capping inversion. However, the combination of that rich moisture – with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s Fahrenheit – and cooling mid-level temperatures were expected to foster modest destabilization of the atmosphere despite widespread cloud cover. Mid-level convective available potential energy values were forecast to reach 1,000–2,000 J/kg.
At 18:00 UTC (1:00 p.m. CDT), the SPC issued the first of several weather watches across the Southern Plains, warning of the potential for a few intense tornadoes across the level 4/Moderate risk area. As the capping inversion eroded, a band of thunderstorms began to develop south of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex and progress eastward. Given the favorable confluence of strong wind shear, deep moisture, and instability, this band organized into distinct and significant supercell thunderstorms across the ArkLaTex region. Numerous tornadoes were observed, some of which were large and destructive, notably in the cities of Powderly and New Boston in Texas, and Idabel, Oklahoma; rare tornado emergencies were issued for the latter two cities. While concerns about additional supercell development shifted eastward into Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana, forecasters warned of an increasing damaging wind threat across Western and Central Arkansas.
Confirmed tornadoes
November 4 event