During the Russo-Ukrainian war, several senior Russian politicians, including President Vladimir Putin, former president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, have made a number of statements widely seen as nuclear blackmail. The possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons, and the risk of broader nuclear escalation, has been widely discussed by commentators and in the media. US scholars have called the invasion "the type of scenario most likely to trigger a nuclear war in Europe". On the other hand, British historian Lawrence Freedman argued the risk was low: "In Putin's mind, nuclear use is best kept for the most extreme contingencies when the state faces an existential threat."

Some of the Russian government's "red lines" have been crossed without nuclear response. For example, the June 2025 Operation Spiderweb coordinated drone attack by Ukraine on Russia's strategic bomber force, which is in use for conventional attacks against Ukraine.

In October 2022, Russian officials accused Ukraine of preparing a radiological weapon in the form of a dirty bomb. An International Atomic Energy Agency investigation refuted the claim. US officials feared Russia would use the claims or a false flag attack to establish pretext for a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

In March 2023, Putin announced plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, via Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, and gravity bombs for Su-25 aircraft. This was possibly completed in late 2024.

On November 21, 2024, following an announcement about changes to its nuclear doctrine, Russia fired an Oreshnik ballistic missile targeting the Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) aerospace factory in Dnipro, Ukraine. This was the first use of a typically nuclear-armed multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle in combat. It was partly in response to a US policy allowing ATACMS and Storm Shadow use for attacks in Russia.

In addition to nuclear weapons threats, the Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has led to a crisis over the safety of the plant and the risk of a nuclear disaster.

Occupation of Chernobyl by Russian forces

The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone was the site of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces during the Battle of Chernobyl as part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On 24 February 2022, Russian forces captured the plant. The resulting activity reportedly led to a 20-fold increase of detected radiation levels in the area due to disturbance of contaminated soil. On 9 March 2022, there was a power cut at the plant itself. No radiation leaks were reported as of 9 March 2022. However, Ukrainian authorities reported that there was a risk of a radiation leak due to spent fuel coolant being unable to circulate properly.

On 30 March 2022, Russian forces formally handed control of the plant back to its employees, and most occupying forces withdrew. Ukrainian National Guard personnel were moved to Belarus as prisoners of war.Russia Hands Control of Chernobyl Back to Ukraine, Officials Say, The Wall Street Journal (31 March 2022) On 2 April 2022, Ukrainian media reported that the flag of Ukraine was raised at the plant.Ukrainian flag was raised at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, Ukrayinska Pravda (2 April 2022)

According to Chernobyl operator Energoatom, Russian troops had dug trenches in the most contaminated part of the Chernobyl exclusion zone, receiving "significant doses" of radiation.Ukraine war: Russian troops leave Chernobyl, Ukraine says, BBC News (1 April 2022) BBC News mentioned unconfirmed reports that some were being treated in Belarus. The equipment of Chernobyl nuclear power plant and radioactive materials were looted by Russian forces.

Russian nuclear blackmail

2022 Late in the evening of 27 February 2022, three days after the launch of the Russian invasion, President Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces to go into a "special mode of combat duty", a state of high alert.

On 20 April 2022, Russia carried out its first test launch of the RS-28 Sarmat, a new long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Putin said the new missile could defeat any missile defences, and that it should cause countries threatening Russia to "think twice". The United States Department of Defense confirmed that Russia had properly notified the U.S. about the launch in advance, pursuant to New START, and that the U.S. considered the launch to be a routine test and not a threat.

On 24 April, in apparent response to US secretary of state Antony Blinken's meeting with Zelenskyy in Kyiv on 23 April, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov stated that further support of Ukraine could cause tensions which could potentially lead to a World War III scenario involving Russia's full arsenal of weapons. The day after Lavrov's comments, CNBC reported that US secretary Lloyd Austin referred to Russia's nuclear war rhetoric as being "dangerous and unhelpful".

In an apparent response to Germany deploying armed tanks to Ukraine, Putin announced in Russia's main legislative assembly that Russia would respond to any combative military provocation from outside of Ukraine with prompt peremptory action possible only with Russia's unique arsenal of nuclear weapons. Pentagon Press secretary John Kirby called Putin's assertion of nuclear potency contrary to the process of the peaceful resolution of the current conflict in Ukraine.

On 29 May, after repudiating accusations made against Russia regarding atrocities in Bucha, the Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, said in an interview with the BBC that he did not believe Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine until Russian sovereignty was found to be in peril.

The state-owned Russian television channel Russia-1 has been noted for the frequency with which its presenters propose Russian nuclear attack on Western countries, including the United Kingdom and United States of America.

Potential Russian tactical strike After a number of successful Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, a number of Russian units were in danger of being surrounded and destroyed. US intelligence started to receive information that Russia began to think about a potential tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine.

On 21 September, while announcing a partial mobilization of conscripts, Putin said that Russia "will use all the means at our disposal" – widely interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons – to defend the country’s territory. He warned that his threat was "not a bluff", baselessly accused NATO of "nuclear blackmail" and of threatening to use nuclear weapons against Russia, and said Russia's nuclear weapons were more advanced than NATO's. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov did not rule out the use of nuclear weapons to defend annexed Ukrainian territories. Several days later, former Russian president and Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev made a more explicit threat of a nuclear strike against Ukraine.

On 1 October, Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic, called on Russia to use low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine in response to Russia losing the strategically important Ukrainian town of Lyman, the first prominent Russian official to directly call for the use of nuclear weapons. In response to Kadyrov's comments, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the use of nuclear weapons would be determined by Russian military doctrine and not by emotions.

Later in October, Russian officials, including Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu, began accusing Ukraine of preparing to use a radioactive dirty bomb on Ukrainian territory, prompting concerns in the West that Russia itself might be planning to use a dirty bomb and blame it on Ukraine. The allegations were additionally communicated in phone calls to Western officials by two top Russian officials. On 24 October, John Kirby stated that there was no evidence Russia was preparing a dirty bomb strike. A tweet by the Russian Ministry of Defence, purportedly showing evidence of a Ukrainian dirty bomb in production, was debunked as a collection of old and unrelated photos. At Ukraine's request, the United Nations sent an IAEA investigation to Ukraine, which found no evidence of a dirty bomb being developed or any other undeclared nuclear activity. US feared that those allegations by Russia may be a confirmation of it preparing for a nuclear strike on Ukraine, using dirty bomb allegations or a false flag attack as a pretext.

The US, as reported by CNN, has "prepared 'rigorously' for potential Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine". It also engaged US diplomats, as well as asked other countries, namely China and India, to engage diplomatically to persuade Russia to avoid nuclear escalation.

2023 On 22 January 2023, Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Duma, wrote on Telegram that "If Washington and NATO countries supply weapons that will be used to strike civilian cities and attempt to seize our territories, as they threaten, this will lead to retaliatory measures using more powerful weapons," and "Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable. Because these states did not face a situation where there was a threat to the security of their citizens and the territorial integrity of the country." In the same month, Russia repeatedly accused Ukraine of storing its military equipment in the nuclear power plants under its control. The IAEA has permanent observers in all Ukrainian plants since 2022, and on 24 January 2023, the agency issued a statement that it had found no military equipment in the plants.

On 21 February 2023, during a Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, Putin announced that Russia would be suspending its participation in New START, the last remaining nuclear weapons treaty between Russia and the United States. He stated, "[Russia] is not withdrawing from the treaty but is suspending its participation." On 26 February 2023, to state-owned television channel Russia-1, Putin said that Russia had no choice but to "take into account" the nuclear capabilities of NATO, and that the West wanted to "liquidate" Russia. Russia said it would continue informing the US on planned launches of intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles under the 1988 Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement.

On 25 March 2023, Putin announced plans to install Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. On 29 March, Russia's Defense Ministry announced that it would conduct a nuclear missile drill, which includes the testing of nuclear-tipped RS-24 Yars missiles.

In March 2023, Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021, warned that Russian state propaganda "is preparing people to think that nuclear war is not a bad thing. On TV channels here, nuclear war and nuclear weapons are promoted as if they're advertising pet food."

In June 2023, Russian political scientist Sergey Karaganov called for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia against NATO member states in Europe, saying that "we will have to hit a bunch of targets in a number of countries in order to bring those who have lost their mind to reason."

A study by RAND Corporation, published in September 2023, concluded, that Russian military losses- at the level which may threaten the security of Putin's regime- would provide the most likely trigger for nuclear use. However, they also pointed out three primary factors restraining Putin: concern about NATO military capabilities, concern for international reactions including losing China's support, and belief that his goals are achievable without nuclear escalation.

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