Opinion polling for the 2022 Colombian presidential election

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2022 Colombian presidential election, the first round of which was held on 29 May. Because no candidate won a majority, a second round was held on 19 June between the top two candidates, Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández Suárez.

First round Graphical summary

Table of values Polling organisation/client Date(s) conducted Samplesize Gustavo Petro Federico Gutiérrez Rodolfo Hernández Sergio Fajardo Íngrid Betancourt John M. Rodríguez Enrique Gómez Luis Pérez Blank No vote Unsure/No answer Margin of Error First round election 29 May 2022 –40.34% 23.94%28.17% 4.18% 0.07% 1.28% 0.23% 0.05% 1.73% – – – Betancourt withdrew her candidacy on 20 May 2022 AtlasIntel 17–20 May 2022 2,78140%26.7% 21.4% 8.8% 0.2% – – – – – – 2% CELAG 16–20 May 2022 2,17445.1% 20.1%20.4% 4.9% – – – – 3.6% 1.4% 3.2% 2.1% Guarumo 16–19 May 2022 2,25837.9%30.8% 20.3% 4.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% – 2.4% – 2.2% 2.5%CNC13–19 May 2022 3,86041%23.9% 21.9% 4.5% 0.7% 1.1% 0.3% – 6.6% – –1.5% 4,41235.8%20.8% 19.1% 4% 0.6% 1% 0.3% – 5.7% 2.5% 9.9% Invamer 13–18 May 2022 1,31240.6%27.1% 20.9% 5.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% – 4.6% – – 2.71% Mosqueteros 15–18 May 2022 6,00044.7%22.4% 15.8% 6.9% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% – 7.9% – – 1.27% CNC 2–13 May 2022 6,20438%23% 16% 7% 1% 1% 0% – 6% 2% 6% 1.2% Pérez withdrew his candidacy on 11 May 2022 TYSE 23 Apr–8 May 2022 8,00036.6%21.4% 10.9% 6.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 6.2% – 14.4% 2.7% YanHaas 30 Apr–7 May 2022 1,23240%21% 12% 7% 1% – 0.3% 0.3% 13% – 6% 3.2% Guarumo 25–29 April 2022 2,13236.4%30.6% 12.4% 6.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 5.7% – 4.3% 2.5% Invamer 21–27 April 2022 1,40943.6%26.7% 13.9% 6.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 5.7% – – 2.55% CNC/Semana 18–21 April 2022 4,59938%23.8% 9.6% 7.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 7.6% 2.1% 8.8% 1.4% CELAG 1–19 April 2022 3,06442.6%21.8% 11.5% 9.2% 1.0% — — — 6.6% 1.4% 5.1% 2.19% CNC 4–7 April 2022 1,96534%23% 12% 9% 2% 1% 0% 0% 4% 2% 12% 2.2% Guarumo 30 Mar–1 Apr 2022 1,86534%25% 9.3% 9.5% 2.6% 0.6% 1.6% 0.3% 10.3% — 7.4% 2.5% CNC/Semana 28–31 March 2022 4,20636.5% 24.5% 10% 8.4% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 8.1% 2.8% 6.2% 1.5% YanHaas 14–19 March 2022 1,23637%19% 11% 10% 2% — 0.3% 0.2% 16% — 5% 3.2 CNC/Semana 18–19 March 2022 2,14332%23% 10% 10% 3% — 1% 0% 5% 2% 13% 2.1%

Polls prior to the finalisation of candidates Graphical summary

Table of values 2022

Polling organisation/client Date conducted Samplesize AtlasIntel 10–12 March 2,376 7.0% 1.9% – – – – – – –11.4% –35.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.6% – 4.8% 0.5% 2.4% 11.2% 11.3% – 2.4% – 2% Guarumo 28 Feb–4 Mar 2,345 6.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 1.5% 3.5% 1.4% 7.7% 2.5%32.7% 3.3% – 1.2% – 3.4% – 5.3% 8.2%9.1% – 4.8% 1.5% 2.5% CELAG 14 Jan–4 Feb 2,12611.3% 3.4% – – – – – – 0.1% 2.2% –28.1% – 1.0% – – 2.3% – 3.2% 4.1% 7.2% – 11.8% 15.1% 2.19% CNC 26 Jan–2 Feb 2,206 5% 2% – – – – – 1% 2% 4% –27% 7% – – – 4% – 4%14% 6% 1% 11% 6% 2.1% YanHaas 25–31 January 1,225 5% 1% 0.1% 0.4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3%27% 2% 0.1% 1% 0.1% 3% 1% 4%12% 7% – 19% – 3.2%

2021 Polling organisation/client Date conducted Samplesize YanHaas 30 Nov–8 Dec 1,230 5% 1% – – – 2% – 3% –25% – – – – 5% – – – 4% –13% – – 8% – – 4% 18% 2.8% CNC/Semana 26 Nov–7 Dec 4,093 4.5% 2.3% – – 0.6% – 2.1% 3.3% 2.2%25.4% – – 0.6% – 3.9% – – – 6.4% –11% – – 7.3% – – – 17.4% 1.5% CNC 9–12 November 1,069 – 5% – 1% 1% – 2% 5% –22% 3% 1% 1% – 5% 1% 4% – 3% –6% – – 5% – – 19% 7% 3% Datexco 15–26 October 1,200 – 6% – – – 1% 3% 6% –26% – – – – 5% – 4% – 3% – 7% – –10% – – 11% 9% N/A CNC 8–14 October 2,012 – 2.6% – – 1.3% – 1.2% 3% –19.7% 1.8% – – 4.2% – 3.2% – – 1.8% – 4.6% 0.9% 0.6%5.8% – – – 22.5% N/A CNC 3–8 September 2,019 – 3% – – – – 1% 4% –17% – – – – 6% – 4% – 3% – 5% – –7% – – – 23% 2.4% Guarumo 14–16 August 1,367 4.2% – – 1.2% – – – 8.9% – 21.6% 1.6% 1.2% – – 6.0% – 1.4% – 3.8% – 3.3% –12.7% – – 7.1% 10.8% 2.5% CNC 17–22 June 2,077 3% 2% – – – – 4% 3% 2%21% – – – – 5% – – – – – – – –6% – – – 26% 2.4% CELAG 13 May–8 June 1,945 4.3% – – – – – – 4.9% 5.2%30.3% 6.2% – – – 7.3% – – – – – – – –14.7% – 3.3% 4.2% 14.3% N/A Guarumo 19–23 May 1,480 4.8% – – – – – – 8.5% –20.6% 2.3% 2% – 2.8% 3% – – – – – – – –9.8% – 2% 8.3% 20.4% N/A Guarumo April 1,370 7.6% – – – – – – 9.7% –24.2% 2.3% 2% – 2.8% 3% – – 6.9% – – – – –16.9% – 4.2 – – N/A Invamer April 1,008 6.1% – – – – – – 5.2% –38.3% 4% 3.7% – 1.3% 4.4% - – 11.8% – – – – –15.9% – 4.6% – 4.6% 5% CNC 8–18 March 4,435 6% 2% – – – 4% – 6% 3%23% – 2% – 2% 6% – – 9% – 1% 4% – –12% 1% 2% 3% 8% N/A Datexco 4–15 March 1,200 6% 3% 1% – – 1% 1% 4% 2%19% 3% 1% – – 3% – – 3% 2% – 4% – –11% – – 9% 5% 2.8%

2020 Polling organisation/client Dates conducted Samplesize Invamer 19–22 November 1,008 5.5% 1.3% – – 2.1% 6.7% – –25.9% 7% 0.6% – – – 7.2% 18.7% – – – 0.6%20.5% – 3.9% 3% Guarumo 27–30 September 1,257 11.2% – – – – 12.1% – –13.4% – – – 1.7% – 8% 2.1% – – 1.0% –18.1% – – N/A CNC 8 September 809 2% 1% – – 1% 5% – 3%16% 5% – 2% – – 8% 6% – – – –20% 5% 3% N/A Guarumo 11–15 August 1,876 9.1% – – – – 12.4% – –16.5% – – – – – – 5.7% – – – –23.1% – – N/A CNC 3–6 August 1,207 5% 2% 3% 1% 3% 8% 2% –18% – – 2% – 1% 11% – 3% – – –16% – – 4% Invamer 30 July–4 August 1,008 7% – – – – 8.9% – –32.9% 12.1% – 4.3% – – – 11.4% – 1.3% – –19.9% – 2.1% 5%

Second round

Petro vs. Hernández

Polling organisation/client Dates conducted Samplesize Gustavo Petro Rodolfo Hernández Blank No vote Unsure/No answer Margin of Error Second round election 19 June 2022 –50.42% 47.35% 2.23% – – – AtlasIntel 8–11 June 2022 4,467 47.5%50.2% 2.4% – – 1% YanHaas 5–10 June 2022 1,23445% 35% 13% – 7% 3.2% GAD3 30 May–10 June 2022 5,236 47.1%47.9% 5% – – 1.4% Guarumo 6–9 June 2022 2,029 46.5%48.2% 5.3% – – 2.5% GAD3 30 May–9 June 2022 4,83448.1% 46.8% 5.1% – – 1.3% Mosqueteros 7–8 June 2022 6,000 43.83%44.68% 3.54% – 7.95% 1.27% GAD3 30 May–8 June 2022 4,43848.5% 46.7% 4.9% – – 1.5% Invamer 3–7 June 2022 1,329 47.2%48.2% 4.7% – – 2.69% GAD3 30 May–7 June 2022 4,04147.8% 47.1% 5.1% – – 1.6% GAD3 30 May–6 June 2022 3,240 46.8%47.8% 5.4% – – 1.7% GAD3 30 May–4 June 2022 3,240 46.8%48.1% 5.1% – – 1.3% Guarumo 1–4 June 2022 1,958 43.3%46.4% 8.4% – 1.9% 2.5% YanHaas 30 May–3 June 2022 1,23442% 41% 13% – 5% 3.2% GAD3 30 May–3 June 2022 2,840 46.3%47.9% 5.8% – – 1.9% CNC 31 May–2 June 2022 2,17244.9% 41% 3% 1.7% 9.4% 2.1% GAD3 2 June 2022 553 45.6%50.4% 4% – – 2.1% GAD3 1 June 2022 555 45.1%52.3% 2.6% – – 2.4% GAD3 30–31 May 2022 1,199 44.8%52.5% 2.7% – – 2.9% CNC 30–31 May 2022 1,200 39%41% 5% 1% 14% 2.8% AtlasIntel 17–20 May 2022 2,781 39.8%48.2% – – – 2% Guarumo 16–19 May 2022 2,25845.2% 41.5% 8.6% – 4.7% 2.5% CNC 13–19 May 2022 4,41240.5%40.5% 3.7% 9.3% 6% 1.5% Mosqueteros 15–18 May 2022 6,00045.3% 35% 19.7% – – 1.27% Invamer 13–18 May 2022 1,19550.0% 47.4% 2.6% – – 2.83% YanHaas 30 Apr–7 May 2022 1,23246% 31% – 23% – 3.2% Guarumo 25–29 Apr 2022 2,13244.5% 37.1% 8.6% – 9.8% 2.5% Invamer 21–27 April 2022 1,24356% 40.6% 3.4% – – 2.55 CNC 18–21 April 2022 4,59944.1% 34.1% 4.9% 11.4% 5.5% 1.4% CNC 4–7 April 2022 1,96540% 38% 4% 10% 8% 2.2% CNC 28–31 March 2022 4,20642.6% 34.4% 4.5% 12.4% 4.1% 1.5% YanHaas 14–19 March 2022 1,23641% 32% – 27% – 3.2%

Other scenarios The following charts display matchups involving a candidate who did not qualify for the second round.

Petro vs. Gutiérrez

Polling organisation/client Date(s) conducted Samplesize Gustavo Petro Federico Gutiérrez Blank No vote Unsure/No answer Margin of Error AtlasIntel 17–20 May 2022 2,78145.4% 39.4% – – – 2% Guarumo 16–19 May 2022 2,25845.7% 42% 9.2% – 3.1% 2.5% CNC 13–19 May 2022 4,41244.2% 34.9% 5.2% 10% 5.7% 1.5% Mosqueteros 15–18 May 2022 6,00050.9% 30.5% 18.6% – – 1.27% Invamer 13–18 May 2022 1,20552.7% 44.2% 3.1% – – 2.82% CNC 2–13 May 2022 6,20447% 39% 5% 6% 3% 1.2% YanHaas 30 Apr–7 May 2022 1,23247% 34% – 19% – 3.2% Guarumo 25–29 April 2022 2,13243.8% 40.9% 8.8% – 6.5% 2.5% Invamer 21–27 April 2022 1,30652.4% 45.2% 2.4% – – 2.55% CNC/Semana 18–21 April 2022 4,59944.8% 36.9% 5.2% 8% 5.1% 1.4% CELAG 1–19 April 2022 3,06451.7% 32.6% 10.4% – 5.3% 2.2% CNC 4–7 April 2022 1,96541% 39% 6% 7% 7% 2.2% Guarumo 30 Mar–1 Apr 2022 1,865 40.1%43.5% 7.4% – 9% 2.5% CNC 28–31 March 2022 4,20643.1% 40.1% 4.4% 8.1% 4.3% 1.5% YanHaas 14–19 March 2022 1,23642% 35% – 23% – 3.2%

Petro vs. Fajardo

Polling organisation/client Date conducted Samplesize Gustavo Petro Sergio Fajardo Blank No vote Unsure/No answer Margin of Error AtlasIntel 17–20 May 2022 2,78141.5% 34.8% – – – 2% Guarumo 16–19 May 2022 2,25845% 38.7% 12.3% – 4% 2.5% CNC 13–19 May 2022 4,41243.6% 32% 5.9% 13% 5.5% 1.5% Mosqueteros 15–18 May 2022 6,00050.1% 25.8% 24.1% – – 1.27% Invamer 13–18 May 2022 1,12557.8% 39.0% 3.2% – – 2.92% YanHaas 30 Apr–7 May 2022 1,23246% 29% – 24% – 3.2% Guarumo 25–29 April 2022 2,13244.8% 36% 11.1% – 8.1% 2.5% Invamer 21–27 April 2022 1,21556.5% 40.4% 3.1% – – 2.55% CNC 18–21 April 2022 4,59943.4% 35.8% 5.3% 10.5% 5% 1.4% CNC 4–7 April 2022 1,96539% 38% 6% 10% 7% 2.2% CNC 30 Mar–1 Apr 2022 4,20641.5% 38.3% 5% 11.2% 4% 1.5% YanHaas 14–19 March 2022 1,23641% 35% – 24% – 3.2%

Petro vs. Betancourt

Polling organisation/client Date conducted Samplesize Gustavo Petro Íngrid Betancourt Blank No vote Unsure/No answer Margin of Error AtlasIntel 17–20 May 2022 2,78146.4% 17.3% – – – 2% CNC 13–19 May 2022 4,41246.5% 20.9% 7.5% 19.6% 5.5% 1.5% CNC 18–21 April 2022 4,59946.9% 23.2% 7.2% 17.9% 4.8% 1.4% CNC 30 Mar–1 Apr 2022 4,20644.7% 26% 7.1% 18.4% 3.3% 1.5%

Coalition primaries Historic Pact

Polling organisation/client Date conducted Samplesize Primary election 13 March 2022 – 0.38% 0.98% 4.06% 14.05%80.5% – – – – – AtlasIntel 10–12 March 2022 2,736 0.1% 1.9% 3.9% 6.2%85.2% – 0.9% – 1.9% 3% Guarumo 24 Feb–4 March 2022 2,345 0.2% 1.8% 5.9% 10.5%81.6% – – – – 2.5% Invamer 24–28 Feb 2022 1,504 0.3% 1.7% 5.9% 13.5%78.6% – – – – 2.92% CNC 26 Jan–2 Feb 2022 2,206 1% 4% 4% 12%77% – 1% – 0.6% 2.1% CNC 26 Nov–7 Dec 2021 4,093 – 1% 4% 3%89% 1% 1% – 1% 1.5% Invamer 26 Nov–1 Dec 2021 1,200 0% 2.8% 4.5% 7.5%82.4% 2.7% – 0% – 3.49%

Team for Colombia

Polling organisation/client Date conducted Samplesize Primary election 13 March 2022 – 17.72% 6.51% 15.77% – 5.8%54.18% – – – – – AtlasIntel 10–12 March 2022 2,736 21.3% 1.8% 14.8% – 5.2%49.3% – 4.6% – 3.1% 4% Guarumo 24 Feb–4 Mar 2022 2,345 29.2% 4.2% 21.4% – 11.8%33.4% – – – – 2.5% Invamer 24–28 Feb 2022 1,504 24.7% 12.3% 15.5% – 18.7%28.9% – – – – 2.92% CNC 26 Jan–2 Feb 2022 2,20630% 5% 6% – 21%30% – 5% – 3% 2.1% CNC 26 Nov–7 Dec 2021 4,09334% – 4% 6% 21% 24% 5% 4% – 2% 1.5% Invamer 26 Nov–1 Dec 2021 1,200 26.1% – 8.8% 10.6% 22.7%26.4% 4.3% – 1% – 3.49%

Hope Center

Polling organisation/client Date conducted Samplesize Primary election 13 March 2022 – 15.58% 20.89% 7.46% – 22.55%33.5% – – – – AtlasIntel 10–12 March 2022 2,736 17.7% 10.2% 5.2% – 13.8%46.1% 3.2% – 3.9% 5% Guarumo 24 Feb–4 Mar 2022 2,345 21.5% 10.4% 8.5% – 22.1%37.5% – – – 2.5% Invamer 24–28 Feb 2022 1,504 12.9% 14.9% 10.5% – 23.9%37.8% – – – 2.92% CNC 26 Jan–2 Feb 2022 2,206 11% 8% 5% 1% 31%39% 4% – 1% 2.1% CNC 26 Nov–7 Dec 2021 4,093 17% 4% 3% – 31%43% 2% – 2% 1.5% Invamer 26 Nov–1 Dec 2021 1,200 9.5% 5.3% 5.5% 3.1% 32.4%43.5% – 0.7% – 3.49%

References