Belarus, a close ally and a member of the Union State with Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Before the start of the offensive, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory; however, the Russian troops did not exit the country after they were supposed to finish. Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. However, these forces withdrew within two months, thus ceasing land-based military operations originating from Belarus and resulting in the recapture of the Ukrainian side of the border region by Ukraine. Despite this, the situation along the border remains tense, with Ukraine closing the border checkpoints leading into Belarus, bar special cases.
Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. Several reports emerged among the Belarusian opposition and Ukrainian military that Belarusian troops were in Ukraine fighting together with Russians, but Belarus's leader Aleksander Lukashenko dismissed them and said that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) would not participate directly in the conflict. As of early 2023, the BAF have not been involved in fighting against Ukraine and have remained on the territory of Belarus during the entire course of the conflict. The Belarusian leader has stated that there would be "no way" he would send soldiers into Ukraine unless attacked first.
According to the Ukrainian foreign ministry, Lukashenko assured Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the start of the invasion that he would not involve his nation's armed forces on the side of Russia. The former stated in early 2023 that Ukraine had offered to formalize this arrangement with a non-aggression pact. In the early days of the invasion, Belarus was also involved in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border. Despite some preliminary agreements, however, the talks did not result in a lasting ceasefire.
The involvement of Belarus was condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions against Belarus. According to Chatham House, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population; protests were held on 27 February, the day of the constitutional referendum which asked to revoke Belarus's non-nuclear country status, but were quickly dispersed. Hackers have targeted Belarusian government agencies as well as the country's critical infrastructure, with the aim of disrupting the Russian war effort in Belarus. Several analysts, including legal scholars, have concluded that Belarus's actions makes it complicit in the war according to the United Nations definition of aggression.
Background
Belarus is located to the north of Ukraine, with which it shares a -long border. Its proximity to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv is considered to be of major strategic value. Both modern states were created in the aftermath of the October Revolution in 1917 in the form of the Belarusian Democratic Republic and the Ukrainian People's Republic, which following Soviet conquest of these territories were reestablished as the Byelorussian and Ukrainian SSRs in 1919 before unifying with Soviet Russia to form the Soviet Union in 1922. The current borders were established after World War II when the Soviet Union acquired western parts of Belarus and Ukraine from interwar Poland and Hungary and have remained the same since, even once the two republics became independent countries in 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
In January and February 2022, Russian troops came into Belarus to participate in military drills. On 16 February, Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei claimed that Russian soldiers would leave Belarus after training ended, a statement later rejected by the Ministry of Defense, who claimed that they would remain "for an unknown period of time". The number of Russian troops that would remain in Belarus was estimated to be at around 30,000. It was also speculated that Belarus could host Russian nuclear weaponry.
The former version of the Constitution of Belarus stipulated the country was neutral. However, Belarus held a constitutional referendum on 27 February 2022, which was declared to have passed with 65% support. As one of the changes, Belarus revoked its neutral and non-nuclear status. Lukashenko later clarified that he would request Russia to bring nuclear weapons if NATO moved to bring them to Poland or Lithuania, the country's western neighbours.
Involvement in Russian invasion
In the initial stages of the military conflict, Belarus lent its territory to Russian soldiers to attack Ukraine, but did not appear to have sent its own soldiers into the conflict. On the day of invasion, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported about Russian troops trying to break through the Belarus-Ukraine border at the Vilcha border crossing, and a helicopter without identification marks attacking a bridge near Slavutych. CNN published a video showing tanks entering Ukraine through the Senkivka border crossing, on the tripoint with Russia. Also on that day, Chernobyl, together with the nearby former nuclear power plant, was seized after Russian troops entered Ukraine from Belarus via the unpopulated Chernobyl Exclusion Zone.
Belarus also allowed Russia full access to its military airbases for Russian military aircraft to launch aircraft and its army installations to shoot artillery and missiles from its territory towards its southern neighbour, or to cross its border southbound. Already on 24 February, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief reported that four ballistic missiles were launched from Belarus towards the southwest Ukraine. Two days later, Maxar Technologies published satellite images with 150 helicopters and hundreds of ground vehicles stationed near Khoyniki, some from the Ukrainian border, with 90 helicopters using a local straight road as a temporary airbase. Belarusian media and Telegram channels also circulated numerous videos and photos showing movement of Russian armored vehicles and helicopters in southern Belarus. Three days later, the Ukrainian Centre for Strategic Communication reported that Zhytomyr Airport was bombed by the missiles launched from the territory of Belarus. On 8 March, ImageSat International published satellite images of three missile launchers (possibly Russian 9K720 Iskander) in the field near Kalinkavichy (southeastern Belarus), and new planes (Russian A-50 or A-100) and Mi-26 heavy helicopters at Baranavichy air base.
Eventually, reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine started to appear. On 28 February, Belarusian opposition media outlet Charter 97 claimed that some Belarusian soldiers were among the wounded and killed invasion troops in Ukraine, citing anonymous Belarusian and Ukrainian sources. On 1 March, a Ukrainian senior military official said to the public broadcaster Suspilne that Belarusian soldiers had been spotted on the ground in Chernihiv Oblast since 27 February and that they were moving from Horodnia towards Chernihiv, the capital of the northernmost region of Ukraine; however, the Office of the President could not confirm the reports. On 6 March, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, said that the Belarusian army had not taken part in the invasion thus far, stating that earlier claims of Belarusian involvement were based on Russian attempts to project the image of Belarusian aggression. There was no independent confirmation.
Russian troops wounded in Ukraine were reportedly treated by Belarusian and Russian doctors at hospitals in Homiel and in other cities of Homiel Region. Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine were reported to be placed in morgues in the Homiel Region. On 13 March, Ukrainian media reported that treatment of wounded Russian soldiers in Belarusian hospitals led to the exhaustion of all blood reserves made for soldiers, and doctors started to use reserves for the civil population of Belarus. It was also reported that Belarusians were encouraged to donate blood.
According to the Charter 97 news channel, reporting on 5 and 6 March 2022, most low-ranked Belarusian soldiers were opposed to participating in the invasion of Ukraine. Charter 97 and its chief editor, Natalya Radina, also stated that Belarusian officers reported to their seniors that they would risk mutiny or mass surrender if they took their units into Ukraine.
On 10 March, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov claimed that the invasion from Belarus was a "backstab", unlike other directions of Russian invasion which were foreseen.
According to the Centre for Eastern Studies, Belarusian logistical units were operating in Ukraine in March 2022. The European Union Institute for Security Studies also said in March that the Belarusian armed forces was providing Russia with ″full logistical and military medical support″. On 10 March, two Belarusian truck drivers were killed in Korosten in northern Ukraine during an aerial bombardment. The planes were presumably based in Belarus. On the same day, an unidentified Russian plane crashed near Luninets Air Base in Belarus (the pilots ejected successfully). The Ukrainian media outlet Obozrevatel claimed that the plane was shot over Ukraine and failed to reach the airbase in Belarus.
On 11 March, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of conducting airstrikes on Belarusian settlements from Ukrainian airspace in an attempt to force Belarus more directly into the hostilities. NATO intelligence also indicated that Russian jets have taken off from Belarus, presumably from Belarusian airbases, to subsequently enter Ukraine from Belarusian airspace; CNN described this as Belarus being used as a "springboard" for air attacks into northern Ukraine.
On 17 March, the open-source investigators MotolkoHelp reported that more Russian Iskander missiles were deployed at the Machulishchy air base and air-defense systems were seen on the territory of Belarus, such as Pantsir-S1 in the Minsk region and near the town of Mazyr and S-400 at Baranavichy. According to MotolkoHelp, Belarusian soldiers were ordered to do the "dirty job" for the Russian forces, such as repairing damaged hardware and cleaning vehicles of dirt and human remains.
On multiple occasions, NATO, US, and/or Ukrainian officials/authorities have issued warnings that Belarus may imminently enter the war to assist Russia, including after the 11 March accusations of a Russian-initiated false flag attack on Belarusian border settlements. On 22 March, a 'senior NATO intelligence official' stated that Belarus is "preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine," though the decision to join the war had not been made yet.
Russian soldiers who returned to Belarus tried to sell the goods looted in Ukraine or send them to Russia. On 2 April 2022, Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian soldiers made a "bazaar" in Naroulia to sell the goods (washing machines, refrigerators, cars, bicycles, dishes, carpets, works of art, jewelry, toys, cosmetics, etc.). On 4 April, Belarusian journalists published a 3-hour footage of Russian soldiers drawing up documents to send large amount of goods in a postal service in Mazyr (one of them had the badge of the 56th Guards Air Assault Brigade). Russian soldiers also tried to sell goods to Belarusians via the Internet.
On 10 October, Lukashenko ordered Belarusian troops to join Russian troops near Ukraine, claiming Kyiv posed a clear threat to Belarus,