2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma

The 2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate for Oklahoma. The election took place concurrently with the regularly scheduled election for Oklahoma's other Senate seat. The candidate filing deadline was between April 13 and 15, 2022.

This special election was held to fill the remaining four years of incumbent Republican Senator Jim Inhofe's term. In February 2022, Inhofe announced that he would resign early at the end of the 117th United States Congress on January 3, 2023, reportedly due to long COVID. He was first elected in a 1994 special election with 55% of the vote, succeeding Democratic senator David Boren in the wake of his impending resignation to become president of the University of Oklahoma. Most recently, Inhofe was re-elected to a fifth full term in 2020 with 62.9% of the vote.

Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn secured the Democratic nomination by default, while the primary election for the Republican nomination took place on June 28, 2022. U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin won the Republican primary runoff on August 23, defeating former State House Speaker T. W. Shannon. Mullin ultimately won the election.

Mullin, a member of the Cherokee Nation, became the first Native American to serve in the U.S. Senate since fellow Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired from Congress in 2005, and the first Native American representing this state since Robert Owen in 1925. Conversely, Horn won Oklahoma County, making her the first Democrat since 2008 to carry any Oklahoma county in a Senate election.

Republican primary On February 25, 2022, Jim Inhofe, the state's longest-serving U.S. Senator, announced he would leave office at the end of the 117th Congress, triggering a special election for his U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma. A crowded field of candidates was expected in the Republican primary following the announcement of Inhofe's retirement.

Luke Holland, Inhofe's former chief of staff, launched his campaign for Inhofe's seat on the same day with Inhofe's endorsement. The next day, Markwayne Mullin, a U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, announced his campaign. By February 28, Oklahoma State Senator Nathan Dahm had announced he was switching his campaign from running for Oklahoma's Class III seat to running for the special election seat. On March 8, former United States National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray announced his campaign. T. W. Shannon, a former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, officially announced his campaign on March 11. Scott Pruitt, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, filed to run on April 15.

Candidates

Nominee Markwayne Mullin, U.S. representative for

Eliminated in runoff T. W. Shannon, former speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives (2013–2014) for the 62nd district (2007–2015) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014

Eliminated in initial primary Michael Coibion Nathan Dahm, state senator for the 33rd district (2012–2024) and candidate for in 2010 and 2018 Jessica Jean Garrison, author, dietician and daughter of former state senator Earl Garrison Randy Grellner, physician Luke Holland, former chief of staff for U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe Adam Holley, office manager Laura Moreno Scott Pruitt, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2017–2018) and former attorney general of Oklahoma (2011–2017) Paul Royse John Tompkins, orthopedic surgeon and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020

Withdrew before primary Alex Gray, former United States National Security Council chief of staff (Endorsed Luke Holland in primary and Markwayne Mullin in runoff)

Declined Stephanie Bice, U.S. representative for (running for re-election) Jim Bridenstine, former administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (2018–2021) and former U.S. representative for (2013–2018) G. T. Bynum, mayor of Tulsa Gentner Drummond, attorney (running for attorney general) Kevin Hern, U.S. representative for (running for re-election) Jackson Lahmeyer, pastor (ran for the Class 3 U.S. Senate seat) Frank Lucas, U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district (running for re-election) Charles McCall, Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives Kyle McCarter, former U.S. Ambassador to Kenya John M. O'Connor, attorney general of Oklahoma (running for attorney general) Matt Pinnell, lieutenant governor of Oklahoma (running for re-election) R. Trent Shores, former U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Oklahoma (2017–2021) Kevin Stitt, governor of Oklahoma (running for re-election) Greg Treat, president pro tempore of the Oklahoma Senate J. C. Watts, former U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district (1995–2003) Paul Wesselhoft, legislator for the 9th district of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation (2007–present) and former state representative for the 54th district (2004–2016)

First round Endorsements

Debates + 2022 Republican primary debates Date Host Moderator Link ParticipantsKey: Participant  Absent  Non-invitee  Invitee Withdrawn NathanDahm LukeHolland MarkwayneMullin ScottPruittT.W. Shannon 1June 9, 2022 News on 6 Amanda Taylor Link 2June 22, 2022 News on 6 Alex Cameron Link

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error NathanDahm JessicaGarrison AlexGray RandyGrellner LukeHolland AdamHolley MarkwayneMullin ScottPruitt T.W.Shannon Other UndecidedSoonerPollSoonerPollJune 13–21, 2022350 (LV)± 5.2%8%–2%1%5%–39%2%13%–30%Amber Integrated (R)Amber Integrated (R)June 6–9, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%5%3%0%1%4%0%38%6%19%0%22%SoonerPollSoonerPollApril 25 – May 11, 2022306 (LV)± 5.6%6%0%0%1%3%1%38%3%16%0%31%Amber Integrated (R)Amber Integrated (R)March 24–27, 2022455 (LV)± 4.6%6%–1%–2%–39%–14%–38%

Results

Runoff Endorsements during runoff

Debates + 2022 Republican primary debates Date Host Moderator Link ParticipantsKey: Participant  Absent  Non-invitee  Invitee Withdrawn MarkwayneMullinT.W. Shannon 1August 2, 2022 News on 6 Link

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarkwayneMullin T.W.Shannon UndecidedSoonerPollSoonerPollAugust 11–17, 2022322 (LV)± 5.4%53%47%0%Amber Integrated (R)Amber Integrated (R)August 11–15, 2022684 (LV)± 3.8%49%31%20%Battleground Connect (R)Battleground Connect (R)July 31 – August 1, 2022800 (LV)± 3.7%46%38%16%SoonerPollSoonerPollJuly 25 – August 1, 2022383 (LV)± 5.0%63%35%1%

Results

Democratic nomination Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn was the only Democrat to file to run and was automatically awarded the Democratic nomination.

General election Candidates Kendra Horn (Democratic), former U.S. Representative for Markwayne Mullin (Republican), U.S. Representative for Robert Murphy (Libertarian), retired University of Oklahoma data technician, U.S. Marine Corps veteran, and carpenter Ray Woods (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report February 24, 2022 Inside Elections February 24, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball March 1, 2022PoliticoApril 1, 2022RCPFebruary 24, 2022Fox News May 12, 2022DDHQJuly 20, 2022538June 30, 2022The Economist September 7, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated MarkwayneMullin (R) KendraHorn (D) OtherMargin270towin270towinOctober 11 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202253.0%39.8%7.2%Mullin +13.2 Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarkwayneMullin (R) KendraHorn (D) Other UndecidedAscend Action (R)Ascend Action (R)November 5–6, 2022682 (LV)± 3.8%53%41%3%4%Amber Integrated (R)Amber Integrated (R)October 26–28, 2022501 (LV)± 4.4%52%41%4%2%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeOctober 25–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%56%35%4%5%59%36%5%–Ascend Action (R)Ascend Action (R)October 24–28, 2022749 (LV)± 3.6%47%41%4%8%Amber Integrated (R)Amber Integrated (R)October 13–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%39%5%3%Ascend Action (R)Ascend Action (R)October 10–12, 2022638 (LV)± 3.9%50%39%1%10%SoonerPollSoonerPollOctober 3–6, 2022301 (LV)–51%42%3%4%Amber Integrated (R)Amber Integrated (R)September 19–21, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%50%39%–11%–(L)September 15–18, 20222,989 (LV)± 3.2%49%37%5%9%SoonerPollSoonerPollSeptember 2–7, 2022402 (LV)± 4.9%52%40%4%4%Echelon InsightsEchelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022522 (RV)± 6.3%58%28%–13%

Results

By county CountyMarkwayne MullinRepublicanKendra HornDemocraticVarious candidatesOther parties#%#%#%Adair3,86573.94%1,16122.21%2013.85%Alfalfa1,45083.67%24013.85%432.48%Atoka3,21181.85%62415.91%882.25%Beaver1,48287.69%1518.93%573.37%Beckham4,36079.71%97517.82%1352.47%Blaine2,21574.70%66122.29%893.00%Bryan8,64275.43%2,49221.75%3332.82%Caddo4,68966.49%2,17030.77%1932.73%Canadian32,52064.96%15,84631.65%1,6933.38%Carter9,66972.24%3,30224.67%4143.10%Cherokee7,94458.77%5,12437.91%4493.32%Choctaw3,24280.25%68917.05%1092.70%Cimarron65990.15%516.98%212.87%Cleveland46,46851.04%41,63445.73%2,9323.23%Coal1,51880.27%32116.98%522.75%Comanche13,85058.94%8,66136.86%9894.21%Cotton1,43978.63%31016.94%814.43%Craig3,31774.02%1,04523.32%1192.66%Creek16,24572.83%5,38624.15%6733.01%Custer5,35071.46%1,93925.90%1982.65%Delaware9,92875.18%2,93822.25%2392.57%Dewey1,48884.69%21612.29%533.02%Ellis1,25884.77%19112.87%352.36%Garfield11,76672.71%3,90824.15%5073.13%Garvin6,11275.33%1,77921.93%2232.75%Grady13,25374.44%4,07922.91%4722.66%Grant1,26779.49%27117.00%563.51%Greer1,01175.50%28921.58%392.91%Harmon49776.58%13821.26%142.15%Harper98284.15%13911.91%463.94%Haskell2,64578.12%67619.96%651.92%Hughes2,60373.37%83723.59%1083.04%Jackson4,26277.69%1,04419.03%1803.28%Jefferson1,26979.36%27817.39%523.25%Johnston2,35779.60%51317.33%913.08%Kay8,66269.30%3,43427.47%4033.22%Kingfisher3,94280.89%80816.58%1232.52%Kiowa1,79473.08%61525.05%461.88%Latimer2,34176.43%63620.76%862.81%LeFlore9,54078.71%2,27318.75%3082.54%Lincoln8,37975.59%2,37421.42%3322.99%Logan11,90470.12%4,54826.79%5253.09%Love2,15278.80%49718.20%823.00%McClain11,10773.99%3,50023.31%4052.70%McCurtain6,70381.19%1,34516.29%2082.52%McIntosh4,48569.43%1,80327.91%1682.66%Major2,28885.12%30111.20%993.69%Marshall3,43678.36%83218.97%1172.69%Mayes9,14572.34%3,09024.44%4073.22%Murray3,15374.22%97322.90%1222.88%Muskogee11,26363.34%6,02233.87%4972.80%Noble2,76372.63%92324.26%1183.11%Nowata2,63179.22%61318.46%772.31%Okfuskee2,06370.22%78826.82%872.96%Oklahoma103,01946.43%112,53250.72%6,3112.84%Okmulgee6,88164.77%3,44232.40%3012.84%Osage9,85665.34%4,82431.98%4042.68%Ottawa5,51071.76%1,91124.89%2573.35%Pawnee3,70973.49%1,18823.54%1502.98%Payne12,22555.38%9,14741.44%7013.17%Pittsburg9,41274.18%2,97923.48%2982.35%Pontotoc7,17564.26%3,64732.66%3443.08%Pottawatomie13,78766.68%6,22730.12%6613.20%Pushmataha2,68381.62%53216.18%722.20%Roger Mills1,12085.04%16012.15%373.81%Rogers24,63772.69%8,22124.26%1,0463.06%Seminole3,97967.85%1,73029.50%1552.64%Sequoyah7,67174.80%2,28822.31%2972.89%Stephens10,10777.20%2,54219.42%4433.38%Texas3,00282.22%50513.83%1443.92%Tillman1,38875.43%39321.36%593.21%Tulsa103,57853.55%84,01743.44%5,8303.01%Wagoner18,97770.70%7,08426.39%7802.91%Washington12,13271.01%4,45226.06%5022.94%Washita2,82979.31%64318.03%952.67%Woods2,04075.58%57521.30%843.11%Woodward4,34280.80%89716.69%1352.51%Totals710,64361.77%405,38935.24%34,4492.99% Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Oklahoma (largest city: Oklahoma City)

By congressional district Mullin won all five congressional districts. District Mullin Horn Representative 56.5% 40.5%Kevin Hern72.5%24.6%Markwayne Mullin (117th Congress)Josh Brecheen (118th Congress) 67.3% 29.6%Frank Lucas 60.3% 36.5%Tom Cole 53.8% 43.4%Stephanie Bice

See also 2022 United States Senate elections 2022 Oklahoma elections 118th United States Congress List of special elections to the United States Senate

Notes

References

External links Official campaign websites Kendra Horn (D) for Senate