2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

The 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024 to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Sununu did not seek election to a fifth term.

Primary elections took place on September 10, 2024. Republican former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former state senate president Chuck Morse, and Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig won the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote over state executive councilor Cinde Warmington.

Ayotte won the general election, defeating Craig by a 9.34% margin. The election was the closest gubernatorial race for a U.S. state in the 2024 cycle. Along with neighboring Vermont, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.

Background New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning state in New England with a pattern of split-ticket voting. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu was narrowly elected in 2016 and won re-election in 2018, 2020, and 2022 despite Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump losing the state in both 2016 and 2020. Sununu opted not to seek re-election in 2024.

This race was widely considered a tossup due to the incumbent retiring, the state's pattern of ticket splitting, and the concurrent 2024 presidential election.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. senator (2011–2017)

Eliminated in primary Shaun Fife, farmer Robert McClory, welder Richard McMenamon, auto repair shop owner and candidate for governor in 2022 Chuck Morse, former president of the New Hampshire Senate, former acting governor, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 Frank Staples, transitional living program owner

Declined Jeb Bradley, president of the New Hampshire Senate and former U.S. representative for Scott Brown, former U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020), former U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2010–2013), and nominee for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire in 2014 Frank Edelblut, commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Education, former state representative, and candidate for governor in 2016 Chris Sununu, incumbent governor (endorsed Ayotte)

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of September 4, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handKelly Ayotte (R)$7,301,915$5,499,318$1,677,858Chuck Morse (R)$1,513,599$1,472,846$40,753Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System

Debates Date Host Ayotte Morse LinkAugust 26, 2024N.H. Institute of PoliticsParticipantParticipant YouTubeSeptember 3, 2024WMUR-TVParticipantParticipant YouTube

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KellyAyotte ChuckMorseUndecidedUniversity of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%65%21%13%Saint Anselm CollegeAugust 13–14, 2024657 (LV)± 3.8%59%25%16%Emerson CollegeJuly 26–28, 2024421 (RV)± 4.7%41%26%33%Praecones AnalyticaMay 15–20, 2024420 (RV)± 6.42%50%28%22%UMass LowellJanuary 6–16, 2024600 (LV)± 4.65%54%22%23%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KellyAyotte RobertBurns FrankEdelblut ChuckMorseOtherUndecidedEmerson CollegeAugust 9–11, 2023498 (RV)± 4.9%45%3%4%9%3%35%co/efficientJune 14–16, 2023904 (LV)± 3.25%69%–9%22%––

Results

Ayotte secured a major victory over Morse, winning almost two thirds of the vote. She performed the best in Sullivan County in the southwest of the state, earning 74% of the vote. Conversely, she recorded her worst result in Rockingham County in the southeast, receiving just 54.7% of the vote.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Joyce Craig, former mayor of Manchester

Eliminated in primary Jon Kiper, former Newmarket town councilor Cinde Warmington, New Hampshire Executive Councilor

Declined Annie Kuster, U.S. representative for Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth and candidate for governor in 2016 and 2018 Chris Pappas, U.S. representative for (ran for re-election) Tom Sherman, former state senator and nominee for governor in 2022

Endorsements

Debates + 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary debate Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Democratic DemocraticKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Craig Warmington Kiper1 Sep. 4, 2024 WMUR-TV Adam Sexton YouTube

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of August 20, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handJoyce Craig (D)$2,976,496$2,630,738$342,052Cinde Warmington (D)$2,287,849$2,135,285$152,564Jon Kiper (D)$58,277$55,985$1,443Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoyceCraig CindeWarmington Other UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024809 (LV)± 3.4%39%30%8%23%Saint Anselm CollegeAugust 13–14, 2024670 (LV)± 3.8%37%28%3%31%Emerson CollegeJuly 26–28, 2024433 (RV)± 4.7%33%21%–44%GBAOFebruary 22–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%37%25%–39%Emerson CollegeAugust 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%30%15%2%52%

Results

Third parties and independent candidates Declared Stephen Villee (Libertarian), software developer

Failed to qualify Edmond LaPlante (Constitution)

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 15, 2024 Inside ElectionsSeptember 26, 2024 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 4, 2024 RCPOctober 1, 2024 Elections DailyNovember 4, 2024 CNalysisNovember 1, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handKelly Ayotte (R)$21,005,579$18,668,848$2,204,119Joyce Craig (D)$7,346,371$6,827,299$515,368Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated KellyAyotte (R) JoyceCraig (D) UndecidedMarginRealClearPoliticsOctober 21 – November 2, 2024November 3, 202446.8%44.3%8.9%Ayotte +2.5%270toWinOctober 24 – November 3, 2024November 3, 202447.0%44.0%9.0%Ayotte +3.0%Average46.9%44.2%8.9%Ayotte +2.7% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KellyAyotte (R) JoyceCraig (D)OthersUndecidedDartmouth CollegeNovember 1–3, 2024587 (LV)± 4.0%40%58%2%–University of New HampshireOctober 29 – November 2, 20242,814 (LV)± 1.9%48%44%1%6%Saint Anselm CollegeOctober 28–29, 20242,791 (LV)± 1.9%49%46%2%3%Praecones AnalyticaOctober 24–26, 2024622 (RV)± 3.9%52%48%––Emerson CollegeOctober 21–23, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%50%46%5%–46%43%4%7%UMass Lowell/YouGovOctober 10–23, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%45%43%4%8%Dartmouth CollegeOctober 5–18, 20242,196 (RV)± 2.1%46%51%3%–UMass Lowell/YouGovOctober 2–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.8%42%41%4%14%Saint Anselm CollegeOctober 1–2, 20242,104 (LV)± 2.1%47%44%3%6%University of New HampshireSeptember 12–16, 20241,695 (LV)± 2.4%46%47%1%5%Saint Anselm CollegeSeptember 11–12, 20242,241 (LV)± 2.1%46%43%5%6% September 10, 2024 Primary elections heldEmerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%43%40%—17%Emerson CollegeAugust 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%46%37%—17%

Kelly Ayotte vs. Cinde Warmington Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KellyAyotte (R) Cinde UndecidedEmerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%44%37%19%Emerson CollegeAugust 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%47%34%19%

Results

By county

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results (by county) County Kelly AyotteRepublican Joyce CraigDemocratic Other votes # % # % # %Belknap 24,73261.41%14,76236.65%7811.94%Carroll 19,10455.93%14,40742.18%6471.89%Cheshire 21,34247.96%22,10749.67%1,0552.37%Coös 10,04759.63%6,34937.68%4532.69%Grafton 24,26044.29%29,21253.33%1,3012.38%Hillsborough 125,88354.48%100,39543.45%4,7702.07%Merrimack 47,79252.07%42,07045.83%1,9262.1%Rockingham 113,66756.88%82,34441.21%3,8251.92%Strafford 36,04047.76%37,64149.88%1,7782.36%Sullivan 13,25553.43%10,86243.79%6902.78% Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Strafford (largest city: Dover)

By congressional district Ayotte won both congressional districts, which both elected Democrats. District Ayotte Craig Representative 54% 44%Chris Pappas 53% 45%Annie Kuster (118th Congress)Maggie Goodlander (119th Congress)

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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