Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 45th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 1999 election by various organisations.
Party vote Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.
Graphical summary
Individual polls PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Labour National NZ First Alliance ACT Green United 1996 election result 12 Oct 1996 28.19 33.87 13.35 10.10 6.10 – 0.88 One News Colmar Brunton 13 Feb 1997 31 45 7 7 4.3 – 0.2 One News Colmar Brunton 13 Mar 1997 32 47 4.2 7 4.4 – – One News Colmar Brunton 11 Apr 1997 36 41 5 8 6 – 0.1 One News Colmar Brunton 13 May 1997 42 38 3.8 6 4.7 – 0.1 TV3/CM Research 25 May 1997 45 30 6 6.7 7.1 – – One News Colmar Brunton 25 Jun 1997 41 39 4.4 7 4.9 – 0.1 One News Colmar Brunton 10 Jul 1997 42 39 3.8 7 4.5 – 0.2 One News Colmar Brunton 7 Aug 1997 42 39 3.7 9 4.7 – 0 One News Colmar Brunton 18 Sep 1997 45 36 1.9 7 6 – 0.6 TV3/CM Research 11 Oct 1997 49 31 4.5 8.3 5.9 – – New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 13 Oct 1997 50 32 1.7 5.9 4.6 – – One News Colmar Brunton 16 Oct 1997 52 30 1.8 7 6 – 0.2 One News Colmar Brunton 4 Nov 1997 45 37 2.3 6 5 – 0.3 One News Colmar Brunton 13 Nov 1997 45 36 2.8 6 7 – – TV3/CM Research 23 Nov 1997 45 34 3.1 7.6 7 – – 8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation. One News Colmar Brunton 8–10 Dec 1997 46 40 1.1 6 5 0.6 0.1 One News Colmar Brunton 12 Feb 1998 45 42 1.3 5 5 0.4 – TV3-CM Research 15 Feb 1998 44 38 1.8 7.9 4.4 0.5 – One News Colmar Brunton 25 Mar 1998 39 42 1.6 5 8 0.6 0.3 TV3/CM Research 21 Apr 1998 38 42 2.2 6.3 6.1 0.4 – One News Colmar Brunton 23 Apr 1998 38 46 2.5 6 5 0.4 0.3 2 May 1998 – National narrowly wins the Taranaki-King Country by-election after Bolger's resignation. New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 11 May 1998 34.7 38.3 1.7 8.5 11.8 1.4 – TV3/CM Research 14 May 1998 37 41 2.1 8 9 0.2 0.1 One News Colmar Brunton 18 Jun 1998 37 37 2.1 9 11 0.5 0.1 One News Colmar Brunton 9 Jul 1998 42 36 1.9 9 8 0.2 – TV3-CM Research 10 Jul 1998 42 36 2.3 9.9 5.1 1 – One News Colmar Brunton 6 Aug 1998 40 39 2.6 9 6 0.7 – New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 11 Aug 1998 46.1 32.6 2.2 9.7 5.9 – – One News Colmar Brunton 13 Aug 1998 41 39 2.9 9 5 – – 14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First. TV3/CM Research 13 Sep 1998 42 35 4.4 9.1 4.7 0.4 – One News Colmar Brunton 22 Sep 1998 42 41 1.8 7 6 0.3 – One News Colmar Brunton 15 Oct 1998 48 35 2 6 6 0.7 0.1 One News Colmar Brunton 16 Nov 1998 48 34 2 7 6 0.5 – TV3/CM Research 17 Nov 1998 49 32 3 5 5 1 – New Zealand Herald-Digipoll 7 Dec 1998 51 32 3.5 6 4.5 – – One News Colmar Brunton 10 Dec 1998 45 35 2.4 8 5 0.4 0.1 One News Colmar Brunton 11 Feb 1999 42 41 2.6 7 3.9 0.7 – TV3/CM Research 14 Feb 1999 43 37 3 7 5 1 – One News Colmar Brunton 23 Mar 1999 39 42 2.2 7 6 0.6 0.4 TV3/CM Research 18 Apr 1999 41 37 3 8 5 1 – One News Colmar Brunton 27 Apr 1999 44 38 1.5 6 6 0.5 0.4 One News Colmar Brunton 19 May 1999 44 39 2.6 7 4.4 0.9 0.2 One News Colmar Brunton 17 Jun 1999 42 41 1.9 6 4.9 1.4 – TV3/CM Research 20 Jun 1999 46 33 4 7 4 1.4 – One News Colmar Brunton 13 Jul 1999 44 38 1.8 6 4.7 0.9 0.2 TV3/CM Research 25 Jul 1999 38 37 4.7 8 6 1.5 – One News Colmar Brunton 5 August 1999 40 38 4 7 7 1.1 – TV3/CM Research 22 August 1999 40 32 7 7 6 2.6 – New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 28 Aug – 3 Sep 1999 43.8 35.7 5.5 5 – 3.1 – One News Colmar Brunton 16 Sep 1999 41 35 4.1 7 5 1.9 0.2 TV3/CM Research 19 Sep 1999 39 33 7 6 7 2.4 – TV3/CM Research 10 Oct 1999 40 36 4 8 7 2 – TV3/CM Research 20 Oct 1999 37 33 6 7 9 2.5 – One News Colmar Brunton 18 Oct 1999 39 37 6 4.5 7 1 0.5 New Zealand Herald-Digipoll 5 Nov 1999 35.2 34 1 8.7 9.2 2.9 0.3 TV3/CM Research 7 Nov 1999 41 28 6 7 10 2.9 – One News Colmar Brunton 11 Nov 1999 34 33 6 9 11 2.4 0.1 TV3/CM Research 17 Nov 1999 37 30 6 9 9 2.8 – New Zealand Herald-Digipoll 26 Nov 1999 39.8 29.9 3.6 7.7 8.5 5.4 – One News Colmar Brunton 26 Nov 1999 39 31 3.2 8 7 6 0.7 TV3/CM Research 26 Nov 1999 34 29 5.5 9 11 6 – 1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 38.74 30.50 4.26 7.74 7.04 5.16 0.54
Preferred prime minister Individual polls PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Helen Clark Jim Bolger Jenny Shipley Winston Peters Jim Anderton Richard Prebble Mike Moore One News Colmar Brunton 13 May 1997 21 20 6 4 6 – 5 One News Colmar Brunton 25 Jun 1997 26 21 4 4 5 – 4 One News Colmar Brunton 13 Aug 1997 25 20 9 3 7 – – 8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation. One News Colmar Brunton 8 – 10 Dec 1997 28 5 27 2 – – – One News Colmar Brunton 12 Feb 1998 26 3 27 1 5 – 3 TV3-CM Research 15 Feb 1998 28 4 20 2 5 – 5 One News Colmar Brunton 25 Mar 1998 23 3 31 3 4 – 3 TV3-CM Research 10 Jul 1998 21 – 22 – – – – One News Colmar Brunton 11 Aug 1998 22 – 28 2 9 2 – 14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First. One News Colmar Brunton 22 Sep 1998 23 – 28 3 7 1 – TV3/CM Research 17 Nov 1998 24 – 15 4 6 – – One News Colmar Brunton 23 Mar 1999 21 – 29 – – – – One News Colmar Brunton 27 Apr 1999 21 – 27 3 5 1 – One News Colmar Brunton 19 May 1999 22 – 27 4 6 1 – New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 11 Aug 1999 19.5 – 17.6 2.4 6.4 – 3 New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll 8 Sep 1999 19.5 1.1 16 6.9 4.4 1.8 1.7 One News Colmar Brunton 26 Nov 1999 30 – 27 – – – – TV3/CM Research 26 Nov 1999 23 – 20 – – – –
Electorate polling Coromandel PollDate Tony Bird Jeanette Fitzsimons Margaret Hawkeswood Robyn McDonald Murray McLean Reid Research 5–8 Aug 1999 6 33 20 10 31 Sunday Star Times/UMR Insight24 Oct 1999 – 34 15 – 37 TV1 Colmar Brunton 10 Nov 1999 8 39 13 4 36 Dominion/UMR Insight 15 Nov 1999 – 43 11 – 35 TV1 Colmar Brunton 18–21 Nov 1999 3 44 11 – 39 1999 election result27 Nov 1999 3.56 39.98 11.37 3.61 39.25
Wellington Central PollDate Marian Hobbs Richard Prebble TV1 Colmar Brunton8 Nov 1999 48 47 1999 election result27 Nov 1999 48.37 44.27
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti PollDate Derek Fox Bill Gudgeon Parekura Horomia Dalvanius Prime Des Ratima Vicky Robin Tauni Sinclair Marae 31.7 10.9 34.6 3.9 4.2 2.9 3.3 Marae 21 Nov 1999 34 – 36.6 – – – – 1999 election result27 Nov 1999 37.16 5.97 40.99 5.27 0.77
Waiariki PollDate Tuariki Delamere Mita Ririnui Marae 21 Nov 1999 27.1 30 1999 election result27 Nov 1999 20.01 45.11
See also 1999 New Zealand general election Politics of New Zealand
Notes
References