Opinion polling for the 2024 Japanese general election

In the run up to the 2024 Japanese general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 31 October 2021 to 27 October 2024.

Graphical summary

Party identification 2024 Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP CDP Ishin Komei JCP DPFP Reiwa DIY SDP NHK Others No party / Lead Election results 53.84%26.7 21.2 9.4 10.9 6.2 11.3 7 3.4 1.7 0 2.1 – –5.5Kyodo News1,26231.815.45.44.22.55.441.61.10.50.521.16.510.7NHK2,52431.39.23.44.42.92.31.91.10.60.11.134.86.93.5NHK2,51535.18.433.72.51.61.40.60.501.134.47.90.7Senkyo.com/JX98233.213.54.93.55.52.21.71.21.20–33–0.2Jiji Press1,17218.94.62.241.51.21.50.40.3––62.23.243.3Kyodo News1,26437.712.64.95.12.7320.80.50.51.221.17.916.6 The House of Representatives is dissolved. A general election is called for 27 October 2024.JNN1,01933.911.73.92.221.50.90.80.4–0.837.14.83.2ANN1,02440.812.43.33.64.81.11.90.70.3–1.525.24.415.6Mainichi/SSRC2,0612910421321–––45316Nikkei/TV Tokyo784411153312–––129312Kyodo News1,10242.311.75.44.143.92.51.10.4–4.918.61.123.7Asahi1,178336231211––14289Yomiuri/NNN1,09538733211–1––4032 Shigeru Ishiba succeeds Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister of Japan. The Ishiba Cabinet is formed. Keiichi Ishii succeeds Natsuo Yamaguchi as President of Komeito. Shigeru Ishiba is elected President of the LDP. Yoshihiko Noda is elected President of the CDP.ANN1,01239.810.84.83.93.81.51.60.41–1.426.84.113SSRC2,0442510622231––149–24Senkyo.com/JX99232.514.24.72.85.30.81.10.80.70.3–36.7–4.2Sankei/FNN1,01230.67.52.52.51.70.91.20.30.40.20.146.95.216.3Asahi1,0702872211––––1481020Yomiuri/NNN1,0403153221111––48417Nikkei/TV Tokyo90237953422–1–13433Jiji Press1,17021.142.32.71.30.90.40.20.3–0.164.12.643JNN1,011315.32.32.41.71.21.30.50.2–1.248.64.317.6NHK1,22031.36.632.32.610.70.10.60.20.545.35.714SSRC1,752239522331––151–28Asahi1,05826723211–––150724ANN1,01539.1114.23.83.21.72.10.50.7–0.729.43.69.7Yomiuri/NNN1,05630632112––––48718Nikkei/TV Tokyo59536872232–––13442Kyodo News1,06436.712.38.54.24.22.83.32.310.50.717.85.718.9Senkyo.com/JX98729.513.35.53.130.81.21.20.20.60.141.4–11.9 Fumio Kishida announces he will not seek re-election as President of the LDP. Nikkei 225 declineJiji Press1,19419.93.71.82.21.310.70.40.2–0.165.53.245.6JNN1,01027.15.23.72.32.621.40.60.4–0.948.15.721NHK1,19929.95.22.43.32.60.80.80.30.50.10.345.78.115.8Nikkei/TV Tokyo79232106532211–13533Sankei/FNN1,03325.16.12.62.84.11.32.710.5––51.12.726Kyodo News1,03533.110.16.633.24.73.30.30.80.12.83023.1Mainichi1,020211484545––––33612SSRC2,044207632431––154–34Yomiuri/NNN1,03124553211–1––54430Senkyo.com/JX98725.912.24.93.57.211.21.310.70.140.9–15ANN1,01235.29.55.54.742.11.70.40.6–1.631.43.33.8Jiji Press1,160166.32.72.52.30.80.90.30.4––64.13.748.1JNN1,02124.17.44.32.62.11.63.40.60.6–147.84.523.7NHK1,21128.45.23.63.12.62.10.80.20.2–0.647.2618.8Nikkei/TV Tokyo838319934221––133–2SSRC2,04318106223211–152234Mainichi1,05718178464511––32414Kyodo News1,05626.511.77.223.42.75.110.20.33.234.81.98.3Yomiuri/NNN1,02325663222–––147622Senkyo.com/JX98422.316.26.23.461.82.10.910.10.339.7–17.4Sankei/FNN1,01325.58.14.42.62.11.52.30.30.5–1.547.93.322.4ANN1,02630.712.67.84.23.92.22.90.20.4–230.130.6Jiji Press1,24016.44.42.43.41.610.90.20.1––66.82.850.4NHK1,19225.59.53.62.431.11.40.20.30.30.5448.118.5JNN1,00823.87.34.33.132.3210.2–148.23.824.4Nikkei/TV Tokyo8132712953221––13356Mainichi1,093172010373521––2848ANN1,04532.512.95.94.83.21.42.10.60.9–1.73042.5Yomiuri/NNN1,033277432131––146519Kyodo News1,05524.712.77.43.44.94.530.70.70.40.432.34.97.6Senkyo.com/JX97623.517.84.83.36.10.71.50.70.50.60.140.3–16.8Jiji Press1,26015.75.12.12.61.20.90.80.80.4–0.266.93.351.2NHK1,20227.56.64.53.131.11.20.20.7–1.144.36.716.8JNN1,01323.410.24.62.92.92.31.80.30.2–1.446.93.123.5Nikkei/TV Tokyo8762913844231––13324 2024 Japan by-electionsMainichi1,032201593646––––2898Yomiuri/NNN1,035245432131––151527Kyodo News1,04925.110.98.13.52.52.34.51.70.60.50.935.24.210.1ANN1,037 369.36.43.34.52.32.30.40.3–1.429.44.7 6.6Senkyo.com/JX98124.715.44.42.75.71.41.50.50.70.30.242.5–17.8Jiji Press1,20015.33.83.53.61.60.71.20.70.3––66.92.451.6NHK1,20428.46.54.742.41.51.70.50.50.10.541.3812.9JNN1,036256.14.32.12.80.70.80.80.4–1.5 52.92.6 27.9Nikkei/TV Tokyo92528119343411–– 342 6Yomiuri/NNN1,02023853222–––1 513 28ANN1,031 35.511.17.53.241.43.70.80.8–1.325.94.8 9.6SSRC2,0441698224411–1 53– 37Senkyo.com/JX98323.613.66.83.76.61.42.60.60.30.40.2 40.1– 16.5Mainichi9971713103746–––– 346 17Asahi1,06522643314–––– 561 34Jiji Press1,16017.74.73.62.81.611.60.30.3–– 64.81.6 47.1Kyodo News1,04324.510.18.94.14.73.14.30.90.40.11.5 31.36.1 6.8NHK1,20628.66.83.83.12.81.22.50.40.6–0.7 42.47 13.8ANN1,034 35.211.97.42.84.52.22.30.80.9–1.326.44.3 8.8Nikkei/TV Tokyo8672598634311–1 363 11SSRC2,0431691023431––1 501 34Mainichi1,02416161337561––– 285 12Senkyo.com/JX99123.312.96.53.961.52.30.60.60.50.1 41.8– 18.5Yomiuri/NNN1,08324544222–––– 525 28NHK1,21530.56.73.13.22.11.31.10.70.20.10.6 446.4 13.5Jiji Press1,18016.34.13.33.62.40.40.90.30.3–– 64.73.7 48.4 JNN/Mainichi 1,049 23 14 9 3 8 4 7 2 – – – 273 4 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 969 31 8 7 4 5 4 4 1 – – 1 323 1 SSRC 2,052 20 8 8 2 3 3 3 1 – – 1 492 29 ANN 1,007 34.6 8.1 8.4 4.2 6.3 1.4 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.1 29.43.5 5.2 Yomiuri/NNN 1,074 25 5 5 3 2 2 3 – – – 0 487 23 Dissolution of Kōchikai, Shisuikai and Seiwakai factions of the LDP. Tomoko Tamura succeeds Kazuo Shii as Chairperson of the JCP.Senkyo.com/JX99630.212.97.235.511.50.90.40.3–37–6.8 NHK 1,212 30.9 5.3 3.9 3.4 1.9 0.8 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.7 455.4 14.1 JNN 1,209 29.1 5.5 4.8 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.6 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.7 47.22.3 18.1 2024 Noto earthquake 2021 general election 55.97% 34.7 20.0 14.0 12.4 7.3 4.5 3.9 – 1.8 1.4 1.7 – – 14.7

2023 Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP CDP Ishin Komei JCP DPFP Reiwa DIY SDP NHK Others No party / Lead JNN/Mainichi 1,080 17 14 13 3 5 4 7 2 1 – – 313 14 Senkyo.com/JX 990 23.9 11.6 6.5 3.7 5.3 1 2.4 1 0.8 0.3 0.3 43.1– 19.2 ANN 1,011 37.1 9.9 6.1 2.3 4.6 2.1 2.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 2.2 29.53.2 7.6 Kyodo News 1,018 26 9.3 12 3 3.3 5.9 3.2 1.4 1.3 0.3 1.8 29.13.4 3.1 Yomiuri/NNN 1,069 28 5 5 3 2 1 2 1 – – 1 484 20 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 729 30 9 12 3 3 2 4 1 1 – 1 322 2 Jiji Press 1,188 18.3 4.4 3.2 2.8 1.9 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.3 – – 62.53.6 44.2 NHK 1,212 29.5 7.4 4 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 43.35.1 13.8 Slush fund scandalSSRC2,047197922441––149–30 ANN 1,015 38.4 8.3 6.3 3.9 3.3 1.5 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 1.8 29.73.2 8.7 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 869 34 8 8 4 3 3 2 2 – – 1 305 4 Mainichi 1,032 24 9 14 3 6 5 7 2 – – – 264 2 Yomiuri/NNN 1,067 28 5 7 2 1 2 2 1 – – 1 483 20 Senkyo.com/JX 993 28 12 7.6 3.4 5.4 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.7 0.2 – 38.3– 10.3 NHK 1,224 37.7 4.7 4 3.4 2.6 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.7 38.54.8 0.8SSRC1,5112071033341247–27ANN1,01938.310.96.63.93.62.31.70.60.90.11.923.65.614.7Nikkei/TV Tokyo8523299543311–13042 October 2023 Japan by-elections Mainichi 1,030 23 11 13 4 4 5 5 3 – – – 275 4 Senkyo.com/JX 991 28.7 11.9 8.2 4.3 4.6 2 1.4 1.9 0.5 0.2 – 36.2– 7.5 Yomiuri/NNN 1,022 30 4 7 4 2 1 1 1 – – – 2723 3 NHK 1,219 36.2 5.3 4.9 2.5 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 405.4 3.8 Jiji Press 1,176 21 3.1 3.9 3.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.3 – – 61.13.1 40.1 SSRC 1,505 21 7 12 2 2 3 3 2 1 – 1 46– 25 JNN 1,208 31.6 5.1 5.5 2.4 2.7 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 – 1.3 45.72.1 14.1 ANN 1,018 41 7.8 9.5 2.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 2.1 24.83,4 16.2 Mainichi 1,030 26 11 13 2 5 5 5 3 1 – – 254 1Nikkei/TV Tokyo7493861145331––124314Yomiuri/NNN1,088314633311–––41510 Second Reshuffle of Kishida CabinetSenkyo.com/JX99527.712.18.33.84.71.52.31.710.2– 36.6– 8.9NHK1,23634.145.82.22.31.90.910.40.2– 42.84.4 8.7 SSRC 1,509 24 7 12 3 3 3 3 1 1 – – 42– 18 JNN 1,219 32.4 4.9 6.1 2.8 2.2 1.3 1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.5 43.43.4 11.5Nikkei/TV Tokyo8473851042231–––3325Yomiuri/NNN1,03330363333––––44314 Kyodo News 1,049 35.8 8.7 11.4 3.6 3.5 4.4 4.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 22.52.6 13.3 ANN 1,010 39.4 6.7 10.3 3.9 3.5 2.5 2 0.6 0.4 0.3 2 25.62.8 13.8 Senkyo.com/JX 997 29 9.9 9.5 2.6 5.8 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.2 – 37.1– 8.1 NHK 1,223 34.1 4.7 4.8 3.4 2.7 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 39.27 5.1 SSRC 1,509 23 8 13 2 2 2 3 1 – – 0 442 21 JNN 1,206 30.5 4.6 6.7 2.5 2.1 1.7 3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 43.63.5 13.1 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 904 36 6 10 4 6 3 3 1 – – – 274 9 Mainichi 1,022 24 9 16 4 6 4 7 3 – 1 – 251 1 Yomiuri/NNN 1,052 33 4 9 2 2 2 2 1 – – – 423 9 Senkyo.com/JX 997 29.8 9.6 9.9 2.9 4.7 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.5 – 37.2– 7.4 Kyodo News 1,034 30.1 8.7 10.6 5.9 2.9 3 3.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0 32.51.2 2.4 ANN 1,023 42 7.1 10 3.9 2 1.9 2 0.6 0.4 0.5 2.1 24.5 3 7.5 Jiji Press 1,184 23.6 3.2 5.2 3.6 1.5 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.2 – – 56.82.5 33.2 NHK 1,218 34.2 5.1 5.6 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 38.76.8 4.5SSRC1,50125811333311–141–16 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 913 34 9 12 3 3 3 3 2 – – – 274 7 Yomiuri/NNN 1,018 34 4 6 3 1 2 2 1 – – – 407 6Senkyo.com/JX99330.19.98.44.95.91.31.41.30.80.3–35.6–5.5 ANN 1,021 41.5 8.0 8.7 3.9 4.8 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 23.63.2 17.9 NHK 1,208 34.7 4.1 6.2 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 38.66.5 3.9 JNN 1,202 32.7 4.3 7.9 3.9 2.5 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.8 39.33.6 6.6SSRC1,5022571233331–1–41–16 Kyodo News 1,052 40.9 8.8 12.6 4.5 3.6 2.1 3.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 – 19.82.9 21.1 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 928 37 8 13 3 2 2 1 1 1 – – 293 8 Yomiuri/NNN 1,061 38 5 7 2 3 1 2 1 – – – 374 1 Mainichi 1,053 28 9 17 4 6 3 4 – – – – 245 4 49th G7 summit in HiroshimaSenkyo.com/JX1,00030.610.38.44.25.31.81.91.50.90.3–34.8–4.2 ANN 1,028 41.6 7.4 9.8 4.4 4.2 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.9 23.7 3.3 17.9 Jiji News 1,228 24.4 4.2 5.9 3.9 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 – 54.83.1 24.4 NHK 1,225 36.5 4.2 6.7 2.4 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 – 0.3 38.96.1 2.4Kyodo News1,04639.47.612.23.43.823.21.21.10.50.623.41.616Nikkei/TV Tokyo8164391343121–––21222 April 2023 Japan by-electionsSenkyo.com/JX99232.610.67.44.56.31.11.41.20.50.4– 34.1– 1.5ANN1,05443.77.182.83.921.20.70.50.52.122.35.321.4Yomiuri/NNN1,071344632211––14137 Attempted assassination of Fumio KishidaNHK1,232 365.34.13.22.11.310.40.60.20.23411.5 2Nikkei/TV Tokyo927438843231–––24419 ANN 1,008 42.6 7.4 5.7 4.0 2.9 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.8 27.93.8 14.7 Mainichi 1,034 25 11 11 4 5 4 4 2 – – – 304 5 Yomiuri/NNN 1,001 35 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 – 1 – 425 7Kyodo News1,05740.69.67.26.73.43.52.81.90.40.30.4221.218.6 Jiji Press 1,198 23.3 3.5 2.9 3.4 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 – 611.4 37.7Senkyo.com/JX99431.511.46.23.94.81.51.11.51.20.3– 36.5– 5 NHK 1,227 36.3 5.5 3.7 3.7 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 38.56.2 2.2SSRC3,072288933321–1–41–13 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 819 39 9 8 4 3 2 2 – – – – 276 12 ANN 1,011 42.3 8.5 6.2 3.7 3.4 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.7 23.95.3 18.4 Yomiuri/NNN 1,044 35 6 4 4 2 1 1 2 – 1 – 395 4Kyodo News1,06038.28.58.74.153.11.81.30.90.60.824.82.213.4 Senkyo.com/JX 986 32.5 12.1 5.8 4.3 5.5 1.9 1 1 1.1 0.3 – 34.6– 2.1 NHK 1,229 38 5.4 4.1 3.3 2.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 35.37.7 2.7 SSRC 3,076 27 8 9 3 4 4 2 1 1 1 – 40– 13 JNN 1,167 31.7 6.4 4.2 2 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 45.13.3 13.4 Kyodo News 1,044 38.3 9.6 10.5 4 4 2.2 3 1.6 0.4 1.2 1.1 22.12 16.2 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 940 42 8 6 4 2 3 2 1 – 1 – 274 15 Mainichi 1,059 26 13 11 4 5 4 2 3 – – – 293 3 ANN 1,024 43.8 9.8 6.2 3.6 3.3 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.7 24.93 18.9 Jiji Press 1,210 24.6 2.5 3.6 3.4 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.4 – 58.72 34.1 Senkyo.com/JX 996 30.2 12.9 7.2 3 5.5 1 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 – 37– 6.8 Yomiuri/NNN 1,072 36 6 3 3 2 1 1 1 – 1 – 415 5 NHK 1,250 38.9 5.7 3.4 3 2.5 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 36.76.4 2.2SSRC3,069258923331–1–44–19 JNN 1,225 32.1 5.4 3.7 3.6 2.6 2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 44.73.6 12.6 2021 general election 55.97% 34.7 20.0 14.0 12.4 7.3 4.5 3.9 – 1.8 1.4 1.7 – – 14.7

2022