2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election

The 2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 15 May 2022 to elect the 18th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The outgoing government (First Wüst cabinet) was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Hendrik Wüst.

The CDU remained the largest party with 36% of votes, a small increase from 2017, while the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) declined to 27%. The Greens almost tripled their vote share to 18%. The FDP fell sharply to 6%, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) slipped to 5%. Overall, the incumbent coalition lost its majority, though the opposition SPD and Greens also fell short of victory.

After the election, CDU formed a coalition with the Greens. This was the first time the two parties had worked together on the state level in North Rhine-Westphalia. Hendrik Wüst was re-elected as Minister-President on 28 June, and his cabinet was sworn in the next day.

Election date The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. Elections must take place in the last three months of the legislative period.

Electoral system The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 128 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 53 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the remaining seats in a way that achieves proportionality overall. The minimum size of the Landtag is 181 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats.

Background

In the previous election held on 14 May 2017, the CDU became the largest party with 33.0% of votes cast, an increase of seven percentage points. The SPD lost eight points and placed second with 31.2% of votes. The FDP won 12.6% (+4.0 pp), and the Greens fell to 6.4% (–4.9 pp). The AfD contested its first election in North Rhine-Westphalia, winning 7.4%. Other parties were not able to enter parliament, The Left only closely missing the electoral threshold of 5% winning 4.9% (+2.4 pp).

The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens since 2010 (→ cabinets Kraft I und Kraft II), but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the FDP, and Armin Laschet became Minister-President (→ Cabinet Laschet).

After unsuccessfully leading the CDU/CSU in the 2021 German federal election, Laschet resigned as Minister-President. Hendrik Wüst was elected by the Landtag as his successor on 27 October 2021.

Parties The table below lists parties represented in the 17th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. Name Ideology Leadcandidate(s) Leader(s) 2017 result Votes (%) Seats CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christian democracy Hendrik Wüst Hendrik Wüst 33.0% SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Thomas Kutschaty Thomas Kutschaty 31.2% FDP Free Democratic Party Classical liberalism Joachim Stamp Joachim Stamp 12.6% AfD Alternative for Germany Right-wing populism Markus Wagner Rüdiger Lucassen 7.4% Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Mona Neubaur Felix BanaszakMona Neubaur 6.4%

Opinion polling Graphical summary

Party polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize CDU SPD FDP AfD Grüne Linke Others Lead 2022 state election 15 May 2022 – 35.7 26.7 5.9 5.4 18.2 2.1 6.1 9.0Wahlkreisprognose12–13 May 20221,6523328.566.516.536.54.5Forschungsgruppe Wahlen9–12 May 20222,25432296717363YouGov6–12 May 20221,046312810715453INSA9–10 May 20221,00032 288716364INSA2–9 May 20221,00031 298716362Wahlkreisprognose5–6 May 20222,1273029.59716.52.55.50.5Forschungsgruppe Wahlen3–5 May 20221,02630287718372Infratest dimap2–4 May 20221,53730288816372Wahlkreisprognose1 May 20221,85330.5319616.52.54.50.5Forsa19–26 Apr 20222,00632287617374Wahlkreisprognose20–22 Apr 20221,4453131.56.57.5152.560.5Infratest dimap19–21 Apr 20221,16431308716351INSA11–13 Apr 20221,000293110714452Forsa4–11 Apr 20221,8213030861826TieWahlkreisprognose8–9 Apr 20221,23027.5337.5617.535.55.5INSA28 Mar–4 Apr 20221,000283010715462Infratest dimap29–31 Mar 20221,18231308715451Wahlkreisprognose11–13 Mar 20221,10030.5319.5515.52.55.50.5Forsa2–9 Mar 20222,00632278617375INSA15–17 Feb 20221,000272912814462Wahlkreisprognose13–17 Feb 20221,874293010813.545.51Forsa26 Jan–2 Feb 20222,00629279718462INSA24 Jan–2 Feb 20222,000262812814482Infratest dimap24–27 Jan 20221,16028281081736TieWahlkreisprognose19–20 Jan 20221,230302711913.545.53 Wahlkreisprognose 12–20 Dec 2021 1,210 29 28 12 7 15 3 6 1 Forsa 26 Nov–7 Dec 2021 2,009 27 27 12 7 17 4 6 Tie Wahlkreisprognose 24–28 Nov 2021 1,400 25 28 13.5 8.5 16 4 5 3 Wahlkreisprognose 11–16 Nov 2021 1,004 27 29 12 7 16.5 3.5 5 2 Wahlkreisprognose 26–31 Oct 2021 1,009 27 30 14 5 16 3 5 3 Infratest dimap 18–21 Oct 2021 1,172 22 31 13 7 17 3 7 9 Wahlkreisprognose 16–19 Oct 2021 1,320 22 30 16 6 16.5 2.5 7 8 INSA 4–10 Oct 2021 1,000 20 33 15 8 13 4 7 13 2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 – 26.0 29.1 11.4 7.3 16.1 3.7 6.5 3.1 Wahlkreisprognose 1–9 Aug 2021 – 25 24.5 12 9 20 4.5 5 0.5 Wahlkreisprognose 8–15 Jul 2021 – 30 23.5 11 8.5 18 4 5 6.5 Forsa 10–17 May 2021 1,058 25 19 12 7 26 4 7 1 INSA 3–10 May 2021 2,014 25 20 11 9 26 4.5 4.5 1 Infratest dimap 6–8 Apr 2021 1,197 28 18 11 8 26 3 6 2 Infratest dimap 25–28 Jan 2021 1,000 37 17 8 6 24 3 5 13 INSA 22–28 Oct 2020 1,008 33 23 8 8 19 5 4 10 Infratest dimap 24–29 Aug 2020 1,002 34 21 7 7 22 4 5 12 Infratest dimap 8–9 Jun 2020 1,001 37 20 7 7 20 4 5 17 Infratest dimap 14–16 Apr 2020 1,003 40 19 7 6 20 4 4 20 Forsa 6–8 Apr 2020 1,084 39 20 8 6 15 6 6 19 Infratest dimap 24–29 Oct 2019 1,001 32 20 8 7 23 6 4 9 Mentefactum 14–21 Oct 2019 1,003 31 20 10 10 21 5 4 10 Forsa 1–16 Aug 2019 1,505 29 18 11 7 24 5 6 5 2019 EP election 26 May 2019 – 27.9 19.2 6.7 8.5 23.2 4.2 10.3 5.7 Infratest dimap 19–21 Feb 2019 1,001 30 23 12 9 17 6 3 7 Mentefactum 19–21 Nov 2018 1,004 28 19 11 11 19 8 5 9 Infratest dimap 4–6 Oct 2018 1,000 28 21 11 12 17 8 3 7 YouGov 6–12 Sep 2018 1,049 31 24 10 13 10 7 5 7 Infratest dimap 7–8 May 2018 1,002 35 22 9 12 12 7 3 13 Forsa 8–22 Feb 2018 1,015 34 24 12 7 10 7 6 10 Infratest dimap 9–11 Jan 2018 1,002 34 28 10 9 9 7 3 6 2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 – 32.6 26.0 13.1 9.4 7.6 7.5 3.8 6.6 YouGov 1–8 Sep 2017 1,048 35 30 9 9 6 8 3 5 Infratest dimap 29–31 Aug 2017 1,000 33 30 13 8 6 6 4 3 2017 state election 14 May 2017 – 33.0 31.2 12.6 7.4 6.4 4.9 4.7 1.8

Results Party Constituency List Totalseats +/– Votes % Seats Votes % Swing Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) 2,607,596 36.6 76 2,552,276 35.7 2.8 76 4 Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 2,092,933 29.4 45 1,905,002 26.7 4.6 56 13 Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 1,269,804 17.8 7 1,299,821 18.2 11.8 39 25 Free Democratic Party (FDP) 390,062 5.5 0 418,460 5.9 6.7 12 16 Alternative for Germany (AfD) 368,271 5.2 0 388,768 5.4 1.9 12 4 The Left (DIE LINKE) 162,005 2.3 0 146,634 2.1 2.8 0 ±0 Die PARTEI 82,699 1.2 0 76,006 1.1 0.4 0 ±0 Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei) 7,488 0.1 0 75,811 1.1 New 0 New Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis) 55,292 0.8 0 60,084 0.8 New 0 New Free Voters (FW) 34,886 0.5 0 49,985 0.7 0.3 0 ±0 Volt Germany (Volt) 27,784 0.4 0 45,177 0.6 New 0 New Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 4,501 0.1 0 19,248 0.3 0.7 0 ±0 Team Todenhöfer 3,533 0.0 0 14,799 0.2 New 0 New Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) 1,462 0.0 0 14,684 0.2 0.2 0 ±0 Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) – – – 9,664 0.1 0.0 0 ±0 European Party Love (LIEBE) 739 0.0 0 8,235 0.1 New 0 New The Humanists (Die Humanisten) 280 0.0 0 8,211 0.1 New 0 New Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung) – – – 6,833 0.1 0.0 0 ±0 Party of Progress (PdF) – – – 6,154 0.1 New 0 New Democracy by Referendum (Volksabstimmung) 1,038 0.0 0 5,606 0.1 0.0 0 ±0 The Urbans. A HipHop Party (Die Urbane) 399 0.0 0 5,201 0.1 New 0 New Alliance for Innovation and Justice (BIG) – – – 4,222 0.1 0.1 0 ±0 Centre Party (ZENTRUM) 1,067 0.0 0 4,162 0.1 0.0 0 ±0 German Sports Party (DSP) – – – 3,839 0.1 New 0 New Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD) 3,544 0.0 0 3,354 0.0 0.1 0 ±0 German Communist Party (DKP) 1,681 0.0 0 3,049 0.0 0.0 0 ±0 The Violets (VIOLETTEN) 631 0.0 0 2,990 0.0 0.1 0 ±0 neo. Wellbeing for all (neo) – – – 2,192 0.0 New 0 New Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) 476 0.0 0 – – – 0 New The Independents (UNABHÄNGIGE) 389 0.0 0 – – – 0 New Liberal Democrats (LD) 185 0.0 0 – – – 0 ±0 Human World (MENSCHLICHE WELT) 158 0.0 0 – – – 0 New Ecological Left (ÖkoLinX) 134 0.0 0 – – – 0 New Modern Social Party (MSP) 85 0.0 0 – – – 0 New Independents 11,435 0.2 0 – – – 0 ±0 Valid 7,130,557 99.0 7,146,831 99.3 Invalid 69,736 1.0 53,462 0.7 Total 7,200,293 100.0 128 7,200,293 100.0 195 –4 Registered voters/turnout 12,965,858 55.5 12,965,858 55.5 9.6 Source: State Returning Officer

Analysis The results of the election were widely interpreted in the German press as a rebuke of German chancellor Olaf Scholz's and the SPD's response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the initial days after the Russian invasion, Scholz promised greater military spending and aid to Ukraine but in the following months was seen as indecisive about exporting heavy weapons to Ukraine. Germany has also been less willing than other European nations to boycott Russian energy imports. North Rhine-Westphalia is located in the industrial heartland of Germany and has traditionally been the base of support for the SPD. The Greens largely benefited from the collapse in support for the SPD, as many of their policies on Ukraine are more popular with the German public.

The FDP's result was interpreted as coming from their federal ministers enjoying far less popularity than those of the Greens, popular Christian Lindner not running again, and many 2017 FDP voters migrating to the CDU to prevent Kutschaty from becoming Minister-President.

Government formation Since the incumbent coalition of the CDU and FDP lost its majority in the election, the formation of a new government was necessary. The Greens were considered to hold the balance of power, able to enter into coalition either with the CDU or with the SPD and FDP. They held separate talks with the CDU and SPD. The FDP declined to participate, believing a CDU–Green government was inevitable. The Greens continued exploratory talks with the CDU and began formal coalition negotiations on 31 May. In a draft agreement, the two sides proposed transitioning North Rhine-Westphalia to climate neutrality, phasing out coal by 2030, and building 1,000 additional wind turbines over five years. They also agreed to hire 10,000 additional teachers and ensure equal pay for teachers regardless of the type of school they are employed in. On 10 June, the two parties announced plans to finalise and approve a coalition agreement by 25 June, with Wüst to be re-elected as Minister-President on 28 June.