White demographic decline is a decrease in the white populace numerically or as a percentage of the total population in a city, state, subregion, or nation. It has been described as occurring in the United States, Canada, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Spain, Italy, France, and Zimbabwe according to various national censuses and other means of tracking racial categorizations.
Scholars have attempted to address subfactors and anticipated results of white demographic decline in relevant societies. The term majority minority has been used to designate an area where a decline, of what are nationally defined as whites, has resulted in a former majority becoming a minority.
In recent decades, white demographic decline has become a political touchstone for far-right political groups, inspiring conspiracy theories and terrorist violence. The politicization of white demographic decline has also manifested as anti-abortion, anti-immigrant and natalist sentiment. Academic evidence indicates that immigration significantly contributes to the maintenance of economies, civic institutions, and population levels in places affected by white demographic decline, such as in the Southern United States.
Overview In some countries which conduct a national census and include a white racial or ethnic category, certain experts and scholars in various fields of study have reported a decline in white population either as a proportion of the total population or, in other cases, in terms of raw numbers. Some of those who have studied this have included anthropologists Leo Chavez, Arizona State University's Luis Plascencia, Rich Benjamin, and University of Louisville's Steven Gardiner; demographers William H. Frey, Eric Kaufmann, Rogelio Sáenz, Dudley L. Poston Jr., Ann Morning, and David Coleman; social geographers like Loughborough University's Marco Antonsich and Syracuse University's Jamie Winders; political scientists Elliot Jager and Robert Pape; and historians Trevor Burnard, and Mark Sedgwick. Various national demographic analyses reported a decline in some white populations, as defined by their local nation-based censuses. Research conducted at the University of Minnesota identified such occurrences in Europe, North America and Oceania:
According to the most recent U.S. census, the non-Hispanic White population is shrinking (US Census Bureau, 2018). This trend has been observed in other White-majority countries including Canada (Statistics Canada, 2017), the UK (Coleman, 2016), and New Zealand (Stats New Zealand, 2004).
Regarding the 2020 US census, demographer William H. Frey wrote:
The Census Bureau was not projecting white population losses to occur until after 2024. This makes any national population growth even more reliant on other race and ethnic groups. The white demographic decline is largely attributable to its older age structure when compared to other race and ethnic groups. This leads to fewer births and more deaths relative to its population size.Sociologist Richard Alba and demographer Dowell Myers have stated that this decline is divisive and exaggerated somewhat by the census format. Nonetheless, many academics, such as Nicholas Lemann, suggest the decline will affect national election results in the US. Demographer Eric Kaufmann argued that "[i]n an era of unprecedented white demographic decline it is absolutely vital for it to have a democratic outlet.... [P]oliticians should set [immigration] levels that respect the cultural comfort zone of the median voter."
Associated terminology Majority minority
Referencing ethno-cultural, linguistic, and religious demography, the term 'majority minority' has been used in racial contexts in media and academia, and specifically to identify the demographic decline of white populations. In 2010, it was reported by the BBC how "America's two largest states – California and Texas – became 'majority-minority' states (with an overall minority population outnumbering the white majority)" between 1998 and 2004.
Demographers Rogelio Sáenz and Dudley L. Poston Jr. have studied states in which white people have become less than 50% of the population in the 21st century, and how, more US states are predicted to follow the trend: "nonwhites account for more than half of the populations of Hawaii, the District of Columbia, California, New Mexico, Texas and Nevada. In the next 10 to 15 years, these half-dozen 'majority-minority' states will likely be joined by as many as eight other states where whites now make up less than 60 percent of the population." From their research, Sáenz and Poston Jr expect the United States to have progressed to overall white minority demography by 2044. Regarding various projected majority minority scenarios across the Western world, in a 2018 article for the London School of Economics, academics Eric Kaufmann and Matthew Goodwin wrote:
The ethnic make-up of many western countries is changing, and in countries previously seen as having 'white' majorities that past predominance is declining. In the United States, Canada and New Zealand, the 'majority-minority' point will arrive around 2050, while in western Europe it is projected to occur towards the end of the century. Some commentators have asked if this change may lead to a growing reaction or 'white backlash'. All else being equal, we suggest that the answer may be yes.
An example from the developing world includes Brazil which, due to a long-term demographic decline of white Brazilians, has been designated as a majority-minority country in relation to the South American nation's racial classification of whiteness.
Racial shift condition In their widely cited research, professors Jennifer Richeson and Maureen Craig produced a 2014 study on white racial shift conditions. White people who were informed of their diminishing demographic share of the population displayed more racial hostility to perceived external racial groups. Pacific Standard described the research as how "the coming racial shift evokes higher levels of both explicit and implicit racism on the part of white Americans". In analysis of the study, sociologist Mary C. Waters concurred that the portrayal in media of falling white demography was linked with subsequent discrimination against non-whites.
Whiteshift
Demographer Eric Kaufmann's theory of whiteshift predicts that as white demographic decline gradually results in white majorities becoming minorities (sometimes called a majority minority scenario) that a broader and more inclusive classification of white people will occur. A professor of politics at Birkbeck College, he suggests that, given the appropriate societal conditions, both conservatives and cosmopolitans may be able to observe whiteshift as a positive factor. In this regard, political analyst Michael Barone believes there may be "cautious optimism" that the social phenomenon can progress in a politically stable form.
Analysing Kaufmann's thesis, historian Michael Burleigh has used examples of whiteshift such as Western right-wing nativist politicians Iain Duncan Smith, Geert Wilders, and Ted Cruz, who have some degree of what might be considered non-white or ethnic minority ancestry in their respective countries. Demographer Dowell Myers has also referenced Cruz and Megan Markle as examples, observing that "whites are indeed in numerical decline" in the United States, when judged upon a criterion of exclusively European ancestry.
Demography by regions Europe United Kingdom
In 2013, Demos published research analyzing the 2011 United Kingdom census. The UK-based think tank detailed how "departing White British are replaced by immigration or by the natural growth of the minority population. Over time, the end result of this process is a spiral of White British demographic decline".
Demographer David Coleman has produced studies which predict that the cities of Leicester and Birmingham will join London in their majority minority status during the 2020s, with regard to the demographic decline of white people in Britain. Coleman estimates that by 2056 the trend of a declining share of the white populace will result in the United Kingdom having an overall white minority.
North America Canada In 2017, John Ibbitson, Canadian writer and columnist for The Globe and Mail, argued that as the population becomes more evenly split between white Canadians and visible minorities, it could lead to heightened political polarization and social challenges. He suggested that Canada will need to navigate these changes carefully to ensure social cohesion and address the concerns of a diverse population.
Writing in 2019, journalist Margaret Wente has suggested that "nations upended by right-wing populism all have one thing in common. They are all facing white demographic decline. And that is the breeding ground for populist revolts." Wente argues that with significant projected decline of the white share of the population in Canada, the country will have to address reactionary populist politics.
United States
While non-Hispanic white Americans under 18 in the U.S. are already a minority as of 2020, it is projected that non-Hispanic whites overall will become a minority within the US by 2045.
Political impact The political right has been reported to be most inclined to reference white demographic decline in a political context, with 2022 communication-research outlining how fears of white-related demography are often weaponised. Max Hui Bai, a scholar working within Stanford University's Polarization and Social Change Lab, has explored "how people react to the numerical decline of white populations" across the Western world.
Sociologist and demographer Ann Morning has suggested that representations of female multiraciality have been used in media to show evidence of "racial progress" and "bridging racial divides", while also providing a function which "serves to soften the blow of White demographic decline". Professor Trevor Burnard has discussed how "white demographic decline" occurred in the population of the colony of Jamaica between 1655 and 1780, stating that his research "presents hard data on white mortality in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century Jamaica" and its political implications. In modern times, journalist Sabrina Tavernise has reported that since the 2020 US Census, regarding white demography, social scientists have pointed out that the "declining share of white people as a part of the population has become a part of American politics – as a worry on the right and a cause for optimism on the left."
Africa South Africa Scholars Hermann Giliomee and Lawrence Schlemmer have credited, among other factors, international pressure on the apartheid government and "a white demographic decline" for facilitating the process of negotiations to end apartheid in South Africa.
Europe Adela Fofiu of Babeș-Bolyai University has noted how right-wing organizations and outlets in Romania politicize white demographic decline, attempting to associate it with concepts such as the "Islamization of Europe" or "Gypsification" of the country, the latter of which refers to the Romani people in Romania. In 2018 analysis, the Southern Poverty Law Center explored how right-wing extremism in Europe attempts to utilize the continents demographic decline and the rise of immigration from Arab and or Middle Eastern countries for political gain. A professor at Loughborough University, Marco Antonsich's research in Italy suggests that "demographic change and the decline of white majorities" provides space for immigrant communities to" justify their national belonging and to rewrite the nation".
United Kingdom