US economic performance has consistently varied by the political party of the US President. According to many economic metrics (including job creation, GDP growth, stock market returns, personal income growth, and corporate profits), since World War II the United States economy has performed significantly better during the administration of Democratic presidents, compared with Republican presidents. Of these, the most statistically significant differences are in real GDP growth, unemployment rate change, stock market annual return, and job creation rate.

The U.S. unemployment rate has risen on average under Republican presidents, while it has fallen on average under Democratic presidents. Budget deficits relative to the size of the economy were lower on average for Democratic presidents. Ten of the eleven U.S. recessions between 1953 and 2020 began under Republican presidents.

Job creation

Job creation refers to the number of net jobs added, which is reported monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In October 2020, Journalist Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post summarized the total job creation by president from Harry S. Truman through Donald Trump as of August 2020. For the 13 presidents beginning with Truman, total job creation was about 70.5 million for the 7 Democratic presidents and 29.1 million for the 6 Republican presidents. The Democratic presidents were in office for a total of 429 months, with 164,000 jobs per month added on average, while the Republicans were in office for 475 months, with a 61,000 jobs added per month average. This monthly average rate was 2.4 times faster under Democratic presidents.

In 2012, former president Bill Clinton said: "Since 1961 ... the Republicans have held the White House for 28 years, the Democrats for 24 ... In those 52 years, our private economy has produced 66 million private-sector jobs. So what's the jobs score? Republicans 24 million, Democrats 42 million." Commenting on his statement, The Economist reported that the difference increased by 5 million thereafter under Barack Obama by 2014. From April 1945 to August 2023, of the 115 million net jobs added, 83 million (72%) were under Democrats and 32 million (28%) were under Republicans. Economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson estimated job growth at 2.6% annually for Democratic presidents, about 2.2 times faster than the 1.2% for Republican presidents, for the 1949–2012 period (Truman's elected term through Obama's first term).

Job creation by U.S. presidency

+Change in non-farm employment for all U.S. presidents since 1939 (data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics)PresidentPolitical partyPeriod of presidencyNonfarm employment at the start of presidency (in thousands)Nonfarm employment at the end of presidency (in thousands)Annual percentage change in nonfarm employment Franklin D. Roosevelt (data available for 1939–1945 only) Democratic 1933–1945 29,923 (for January 1939) 41,446 5.35% (annual average from January 1939 to April 1945) Harry S. Truman Democratic 1945–1953 41,446 50,144 2.49% Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1953–1961 50,144 53,683 0.86% John F. Kennedy Democratic 1961–1963 53,683 57,255 2.30% Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic 1963–1969 57,255 69,439 3.80% Richard M. Nixon Republican 1969–1974 69,439 78,619 2.25% Gerald R. Ford Republican 1974–1977 78,619 80,690 1.08% Jimmy Carter Democratic 1977–1981 80,690 91,033 3.06% Ronald W. Reagan Republican 1981–1989 91,033 107,161 2.06% George H. W. Bush Republican 1989–1993 107,161 109,794 0.61% Bill Clinton Democratic 1993–2001 109,794 132,698 2.40% George W. Bush Republican 2001–2009 132,698 134,055 0.13% Barack H. Obama Democratic 2009–2017 134,055 145,612 1.04% Donald Trump Republican 2017–2021 145,612 142,669 -0.51% Joe Biden Democratic 2021–2025 143,443 159,053 2.68%

GDP growth GDP is a measure of both the economic production and income. The Economist reported in August 2014 that real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth averaged about 1.8 percentage points faster under Democrats, from Truman through Obama's first term, which ended in January 2013. Blinder and Watson estimated the average Democratic real GDP growth rate at 4.3%, vs. 2.5% for Republicans, from Truman's elected term through Obama's first term, which ended January 2013. This pattern of faster GDP growth under Democratic presidents continued after Blinder and Watson published their study; GDP grew faster both in Obama's second term and in the first two years of Joe Biden's administration than in Trump's term.

CNN reported in September 2020 that GDP grew 4.1% on average under Democrats, versus 2.5% under Republicans, from 1945 through the second quarter of 2020, a difference of 1.6 percentage points. In February 2021, The New York Times reported: "Since 1933, the economy has grown at an annual average rate of 4.6 percent under Democratic presidents and 2.4 percent under Republicans ... The average income of Americans would be more than double its current level if the economy had somehow grown at the Democratic rate for all of the past nine decades." The Washington Post reported that average GDP growth under Trump for his first three years in office was 2.5%; when the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, GDP for his fourth year in office fell 6.5%. +Real GDP growth rate by president since 1947 (the quarter in which a new president takes office is attributed to the incoming president)PresidentPolitical partyPeriod of presidencyAverage annual real GDP (in trillions)Average annual percentage growthHarry S. Truman (data available from 1947) Democratic1945–19532.434.88%Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican1953–19613.173.03%John F. Kennedy Democratic1961–19633.794.35%Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic1963–19694.705.30%Richard M. Nixon Republican1969–19745.603.50%Gerald R. Ford Republican1974–19776.171.55%Jimmy Carter Democratic1977–19817.073.27%Ronald W. Reagan Republican1981–19898.333.48%George H. W. Bush Republican1989–199310.092.24%Bill Clinton Democratic1993–200112.253.88%George W. Bush Republican2001–200915.622.21%Barack H. Obama Democratic2009–201717.711.67%Donald Trump Republican2017–202120.181.42%Joe Biden Democratic2021–2025pendingpending

Unemployment rates Unemployment rates account for people of working age that do not have a job. Unemployment rates are important due to the differences in policies taken from each political party. However, Job creation and unemployment are affected by many factors such as economic conditions, global competition, education, automation, and demographics, and global crisis. Studies published in the American Economic Review by Blinder and Watson have analyzed the factors which determine differences between unemployment rates during Democratic and Republican Leadership. They found that the unemployment rate fell under Democratic presidents by an average of 0.8 percentage points, while it increased under Republican presidents by an average of 1.1 percentage points. They commented: "The Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future." Unemployment is largely influenced by the economic policies from the Federal Reserve, which has as a main objective to balance the trade off between maintaining low and stable inflation vs maximizing employment.

Historical unemployment rate statistics +Unemployment rate change by United States president between the start of their presidency and the end of their presidency from 1948 (data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics)PresidentPolitical partyPeriod of presidencyUnemployment rate at start of presidencyUnemployment rate at end of presidencyChange in unemployment rate during presidency (percentage points) Harry S. Truman (data available for 1948–1953 only) Democratic 1945–1953 3.4% (for January 1948) 2.9% −0.5 (from January 1948 to January 1953) Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1953–1961 2.9% 6.6% +3.7 John F. Kennedy Democratic 1961–1963 6.6% 5.7% −0.9 Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic 1963–1969 5.7% 3.4% −2.3 Richard M. Nixon Republican 1969–1974 3.4% 5.5% +2.1 Gerald R. Ford Republican 1974–1977 5.5% 7.5% +2.0 Jimmy Carter Democratic 1977–1981 7.5% 7.5% 0.0 Ronald Reagan Republican 1981–1989 7.5% 5.4% −2.1 George H. W. Bush Republican 1989–1993 5.4% 7.3% +1.9 Bill Clinton Democratic 1993–2001 7.3% 4.2% −3.1 George W. Bush Republican 2001–2009 4.2% 7.8% +3.6 Barack Obama Democratic 2009–2017 7.8% 4.7% −3.1 Donald Trump Republican 2017–2021* 4.7%* 6.4%* +1.7* Joe Biden Democratic 2021–2025 6.4%* 3.9%* (February 2024) −2.5* (from January 2021 to February 2024) * The COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Resignation had a dramatic influence in statistics presented, including a sharp increase in unemployment rate at the time of changes from Trump to Biden.

+Unemployment rate change for each U.S. presidential term from 1949 (data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics)PresidentPolitical partyPeriod of presidencyUnemployment rate at start of presidential termUnemployment rate at end of presidential termChange in unemployment rate during presidential term (percentage points) Harry S. Truman Democratic 1949–1953 4.3% 2.9% −1.4 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1953–1957 2.9% 4.2% +1.3 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1957–1961 4.2% 6.6% +2.4 John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic 1961–1965 6.6% 4.9% −1.7 Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic 1965–1969 4.9% 3.4% −1.5 Richard M. Nixon Republican 1969–1973 3.4% 4.9% +1.5 Richard M. Nixon and Gerald R. Ford Republican 1973–1977 4.9% 7.5% +2.6 Jimmy Carter Democratic 1977–1981 7.5% 7.5% 0.0 Ronald Reagan Republican 1981–1985 7.5% 7.3% −0.2 Ronald W. Reagan Republican 1985–1989 7.3% 5.4% −1.9 George H. W. Bush Republican 1989–1993 5.4% 7.3% +1.9 Bill Clinton Democratic 1993–1997 7.3% 5.3% −2.0 Bill Clinton Democratic 1997–2001 5.3% 4.2% −1.1 George W. Bush Republican 2001–2005 4.2% 5.3% +1.1 George W. Bush Republican 2005–2009 5.3% 7.8% +2.5 Barack Obama Democratic 2009–2013 7.8% 8.0% +0.2 Barack Obama Democratic 2013–2017 8.0% 4.7% −3.3 Donald Trump* Republican 2017–2021* 4.7%* 6.4%* +1.6* Joe Biden* Democratic 2021–2025* 6.4%* 3.9%* (February 2024) −2.5* (from January 2021 to February 2024)

Income growth and inequality Analysis conducted by Vanderbilt University political science professor Larry Bartels in 2004 and 2015 found income growth is faster and more equal under Democratic presidents. From 1982 through 2013, he found real incomes increased in the 20th and 40th percentiles of incomes under Democrats, while they fell under Republicans. Real incomes grew across all higher percentiles at a greater rate under Democrats, even during the Great Recession and its recovery in Obama's first term. Bartels calculated in 2008 that the real value of the minimum wage over the preceding sixty years had increased 16 cents per year under Democratic presidents but declined by 6 cents per year under Republican presidents.

Inflation Blinder and Watson found that since 1945 the average inflation rate was higher under Republican presidents than under Democrats, although inflation tended to rise under Democrats but fall under Republicans.

Federal budget deficits