Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2024 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.

Background

The Republican National Committee determined that candidates must qualify for the first primary debate by polling above 1% in three national polls since July 2023 – or in two national polls and one poll from two different early primary states (of which the polls must meet committee standards) – as well as attract donations from at least 40,000 individuals, with at least 200 from each of 20 states or territories.

Each subsequent debate raised the polling threshold for qualification. For the second debate, candidates needed to poll above 3% in August or September in two national polls; otherwise, one national poll plus two state polls in two separate early primary states also qualify. The donor threshold was also raised for the second debate to 50,000 individuals. For the third and fourth debates, the threshold was raised to above 4% in one national poll and one early primary state poll, as well as 70,000 unique donors.

Individuals who have been included in statewide Republican primary polls but have either ruled out their candidacy or not expressed interest in running include Greg Abbott, Tucker Carlson, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Chris Sununu, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Glenn Youngkin.

Primary and caucus calendar +2024 Republican Party primaries and caucusesDateDelegatesPrimaries/caucusesJanuary 1540Iowa caucusJanuary 2322New Hampshire primaryFebruary 6-Nevada primaryFebruary 835269Nevada caucusVirgin Islands caucusFebruary 2450South Carolina primaryFebruary 2755Michigan primaryMarch 2863254Idaho caucusMissouri caucusMarch 319District of Columbia primaryMarch 429North Dakota caucusMarch 5(Super Tuesday)874492894016937204039754358162401748Alabama primaryAlaska primaryAmerican Samoa caucusArkansas primaryCalifornia primaryColorado primaryMaine primaryMassachusetts primaryMinnesota primaryNorth Carolina primaryOklahoma primaryTennessee primaryTexas primaryUtah primaryVermont primaryVirginia primaryMarch 99Guam caucusMarch 1032923Northern Marianas caucusPuerto Rico primaryMarch 1216059193943Georgia primaryHawaii caucusMississippi primaryWashington primaryMarch 1934943125643978Arizona primaryFlorida primaryIllinois primaryKansas primaryOhio primaryMarch 2346Louisiana primaryApril 21952816911941Connecticut primaryDelaware primaryNew York primaryRhode Island primaryWisconsin primaryApril 18–2029Wyoming caucusApril 2367Pennsylvania primaryMay 758Indiana primaryMay 14104373631Maryland primaryNebraska primaryWest Virginia primaryMay 21774631Kentucky caucusOregon primaryJune 413131492229Montana primaryNew Jersey primaryNew Mexico primarySouth Dakota primary

Aggregate polling summary 270toWin StatespolledDatesadministeredDatesupdated RonDeSantis NikkiHaley DonaldTrump Other/Undecided MarginIowa January 11 – 15, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.7% 18.5%52.5% 13.3%Trump +34.0Massachusetts February 7–8, 2024 February 15, 2024 – 29.3%63.0% 7.7%Trump +33.7New Hampshire January 22–23, 2024 January 23, 2024 7.3% 35.7%56.5% 0.5%Trump +20.8South Carolina February 16–20, 2024 February 21, 2024 – 34.6%61.6% 3.8%Trump +27.0Wisconsin February 7, 2024 February 15, 2024 – 22.5%71.5% 6.0%Trump +49.0

FiveThirtyEight StatespolledDatesadministeredDatesupdated NikkiHaley DonaldTrump Other/Undecided MarginArizona through February 4, 2024 February 15, 2024 21.0%76.9% 2.1%Trump +55.9California through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 18.9%76.7% 4.4%Trump +57.8Florida through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 14.1%84.2% 1.7%Trump +70.1Georgia through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 18.1%79.0% 2.9%Trump +60.9Iowa through January 14, 2024 January 15, 2024 18.7%52.7% 28.6%Trump +34.0MassachusettsMassachusetts through March 3, 2024 March 4, 2024 29.3%66.6% 4.1%Trump +37.3Michigan through February 24, 2024 February 25, 2024 21.8%78.7% –Trump +56.9New Hampshire through January 22, 2024 January 23, 2024 36.3%53.9% 9.8%Trump +17.6North Carolina through February 4, 2024 February 15, 2024 22.1%74.7% 4.2%Trump +52.6Ohio through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 16.9%81.9% 1.2%Trump +56.4Pennsylvania through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 17.8%78.5% 3.7%Trump +51.3South Carolina through February 23, 2024 February 23, 2024 34.0%61.6% 4.4% Trump +27.6Tennessee through March 3, 2024 March 5, 2024 15.3%84.4% 0.3%Trump +69.1Texas through March 3, 2024 March 4, 2024 14.9%79.4% 5.7%Trump +64.5Virginia through March 3, 2024 March 4, 2024 17.4%66.2% 16.4%Trump +48.8Wisconsin through February 4, 2024 February 15, 2024 21.1%70.9% 8.0%Trump +49.8

RealClearPolitics StatespolledDatesadministeredDatesupdated RonDeSantis NikkiHaley DonaldTrump Other/Undecided MarginIowa January 5 – 14, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.7% 18.8%52.5% 13.0%Trump +33.7Nevada September 29, 2023 – January 8, 2024 January 19, 2024 10.5% –69.0% 20.5%Trump +58.5New Hampshire January 16–22, 2024 January 23, 2024 8.0% 36.5%55.8% –Trump +19.3South Carolina January 23, 2024 – February 10, 2024 February 15, 2024 – 30.5%64.0% 5.5%Trump +33.5

Iowa caucus

The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses were held on January 15, 2024.

New Hampshire primary

The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary was held on January 23, 2024.

Nevada primary and caucus

The 2024 Nevada Republican presidential primary and caucus was held on February 6 and February 8, 2024, respectively.

South Carolina primary

The 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary was held on February 24, 2024.

Michigan primary and caucus

The 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucus were held on February 27 and March 2, 2024, respectively.

Missouri caucus

The 2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses were held on March 2, 2024.

Alabama primary

Arkansas primary

California primary

Maine caucus

Massachusetts primary

North Carolina primary

Oklahoma primary

Tennessee primary

Texas primary

Utah caucus

Virginia primary

Georgia primary

Mississippi primary

Arizona primary

Florida primary

Illinois primary

Kansas caucus

Ohio primary

Louisiana primary

New York primary

Rhode Island primary

Wisconsin primary

Pennsylvania primary

Indiana primary

Maryland primary

West Virginia primary

Kentucky caucus

Montana primary

Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

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