2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Republican governor Jim Justice won his first term in office, defeating Democratic Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott. He succeeded independent incumbent Joe Manchin, who did not seek a third full term.

Manchin, a Democrat until his final year in the Senate, announced he would not run for re-election shortly before switching to independent. He endorsed Elliott, who won the Democratic nomination with 45% of the vote against political activist Zach Shrewsbury and businessman Don Blankenship. Justice won the Republican nomination with 62% of the vote against Congressman Alex Mooney.

Due to West Virginia's heavy Republican lean, the absence of Manchin, Justice's personal popularity, and being held concurrently with a presidential race in a state in which Donald Trump was expected to win in a landslide, a Republican pickup for this seat was considered a foregone conclusion in 2024. Justice was sworn in as a Senator on January 14, 2025, giving elected Republicans control of both of West Virginia’s Senate seats for the first time since 1931 and giving the state an entirely Republican congressional delegation for the first time since 1923. This was the first time since the 1956 special election that a Republican won West Virginia's Class I Senate Seat.

Background Manchin saw electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia, which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/west-virginia-how-bluest-state-became-reddest-n697491

The Republican Party identified this contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle. Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat were Congressman Alex Mooney and Governor Jim Justice.

Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018, and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought re-election. After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin. After Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spur Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario" that ended when Blankenship lost the primary.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Glenn Elliott, former mayor of Wheeling (2016–2024)

Eliminated in primary Don Blankenship, former CEO of Massey Energy, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and Constitution nominee for president in 2020 Zach Shrewsbury, political organizer

Declined Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator (endorsed Elliott)

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handZachary Shrewsbury (D)$295,678$238,895$56,782Glenn Elliott (D)$125,407$60,071$65,335Don Blankenship (D)$1,000$0$1,085Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Jim Justice, governor of West Virginia (2017–2025)

Eliminated in primary Bryan Bird, pastor Zane Lawhorn, optometrist and perennial candidate Don Lindsay Bryan McKinney, sales manager Janet McNulty, IT professional Alex Mooney, U.S. representative for (2015–2025)

Withdrew Chris Rose, coal miner (ran for state senate)

Declined Carol Miller, U.S. representative for (2019–present) (running for re-election) Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia Attorney General (2013–2025) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for governor)

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handJim Justice (R)$2,956,027$2,024,749$931,451Alex Mooney (R)$3,266,887$2,629,525$637,362Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JimJustice AlexMooney Other UndecidedEmerson CollegeMay 2–5, 2024558 (LV)± 4.1%60%30%10%–Research AmericaApril 24 – May 1, 2024407 (LV)± 4.9%67%23%7%3%Osage Research (R)April 22–24, 2024400(LV)± 4.9%49%35%5%11%NMB Research (R)April 20–22, 2024500(LV)± 4.38%60%24%–16%Research AmericaApril 3–9, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%66%24%4%6%Emerson CollegeMarch 19–21, 2024735 (LV)± 3.6%54%17%1%22%American Pulse Research& Polling (R)November 13–14, 2023414 (LV)± 4.8%56%20%3%22%Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)September 11–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%62%23%–15%Research AmericaAugust 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%58%26%–16%Orion StrategiesJune 17–20, 2023651 (LV)± 6.0%56%19%9%16%East Carolina UniversityMay 22–23, 2023796 (RV)± 3.7%53%12%–35%co/efficient (R)April 24–25, 2023753 (LV)± 3.5%45%17%–38%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JimJustice AlexMooney PatrickMorrisey UndecidedNational Public Affairs (R)March 14–17, 2023360 (LV)± 5.2%43%21%10%24%Tarrance Group (R)February 5–7, 2023609 (LV)± 4.1%53%16%21%8%

Results

Independents Declined Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator (endorsed Elliott)

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report May 17, 2024 Inside Elections May 9, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball April 17, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill June 8, 2024Elections DailyMay 4, 2023 CNalysis November 21, 2023 RealClearPolitics August 5, 2024 Split Ticket October 23, 2024 538 October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handGlenn Elliott (D)$252,262$183,127$69,135Jim Justice (R)$3,680,408$2,881,158$799,423Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginof errorGlennElliott (D)JimJustice (R) UndecidedResearch AmericaAugust 21–27, 2024400 (RV)± 4.9%28%62%10%Kaplan StrategiesJune 4, 2024464 (RV)± 4.6%27%60%13%

Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeManchin (D) JimJustice (R) Other UndecidedEmerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%28%41%–31%Research AmericaAugust 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%38%51%–11%East Carolina UniversityMay 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%32%54%1%13%co/efficient (R)April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%29%43%–28%Tarrance Group (R)February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%42%52%–5%Triton Polling & Research (R)August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%32%47%–21%Triton Polling & Research (R)January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%41%37%–22%

Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeManchin (D) AlexMooney (R) Other UndecidedEmerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%37%31%31%–Research AmericaAugust 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%45%41%14%–East Carolina UniversityMay 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%40%41%1%18%co/efficient (R)April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%36%30%–34%Tarrance Group (R)February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%55%40%–5%Triton Polling & Research (R)August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%38%45%12%5%Triton Polling & Research (R)January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%49%28%16%7%

Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeManchin (D) PatrickMorrisey (R) Other UndecidedTarrance Group (R)February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%52%42%–6%Triton Polling & Research (R)August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%36%50%9%5%Triton Polling & Research (R)January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%50%29%7%16%

Joe Manchin as an Independent vs. Jim Justice Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeManchin (I) JimJustice (R) UndecidedTarrance Group (R)September 24–26, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%43%49%8%

Results

By county CountyGlenn ElliottDemocraticJim JusticeRepublicanDavid MoranLibertarianMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Barbour1,06916.95%4,96378.72%2734.33%3,89461.76%6,305Berkeley16,74030.49%35,87065.34%2,2854.16%19,13034.85%54,895Boone1,82622.86%5,96574.67%1972.47%4,13951.82%7,988Braxton1,25523.99%3,81272.86%1653.15%2,55748.87%5,232Brooke2,68427.72%6,85770.82%1411.46%4,17343.10%9,682Cabell12,09334.84%21,48661.90%1,1313.26%9,39327.06%34,710Calhoun48416.96%2,29380.34%772.70%1,80963.38%2,854Clay59418.72%2,47978.13%1003.15%1,88559.41%3,173Doddridge37913.06%2,37481.78%1505.17%1,99568.72%2,903Fayette4,51229.65%10,14766.69%5573.66%5,63537.03%15,216Gilmer48120.81%1,76376.29%672.90%1,28255.47%2,311Grant54710.14%4,64786.17%1993.69%4,10076.02%5,393Greenbrier4,51530.69%9,67665.77%5213.54%5,16135.08%14,712Hampshire1,77717.36%8,12079.31%3413.33%6,34361.96%10,238Hancock3,27725.49%9,33472.59%2471.92%6,05747.11%12,858Hardy1,30320.66%4,79876.07%2063.27%3,49555.41%6,307Harrison7,50825.85%20,39670.21%1,1453.94%12,88844.37%29,049Jackson2,66921.14%9,49275.17%4663.69%6,82354.04%12,627Jefferson11,26539.31%16,50957.61%8843.08%5,24418.30%28,658Kanawha29,19539.65%42,33157.49%2,1032.86%13,13617.84%73,629Lewis1,23917.69%5,46778.06%2984.25%4,22860.37%7,004Lincoln1,28318.22%5,55578.87%2052.91%4,27260.66%7,043Logan1,87416.98%8,91680.79%2462.23%7,04263.81%11,036Marion7,83432.22%15,40663.36%1,0744.42%7,57231.14%24,314Marshall4,02730.61%8,90267.68%2251.71%4,87537.06%13,154Mason2,15620.73%7,89075.85%3563.42%5,73455.12%10,402McDowell89817.42%4,12179.94%1362.64%3,22362.52%5,155Mercer4,30618.66%18,12078.51%6532.83%13,81459.86%23,079Mineral2,20717.31%10,15779.67%3853.02%7,95062.36%12,749Mingo1,08513.24%6,94084.69%1702.07%5,85571.45%8,195Monongalia18,27244.65%20,87451.00%1,7804.35%2,6026.36%40,926Monroe1,23519.80%4,80477.01%1993.19%3,56957.21%6,238Morgan1,84020.85%6,66275.49%3233.66%4,82254.64%8,825Nicholas2,00620.34%7,53876.42%3203.24%5,53256.08%9,864Ohio7,59940.80%10,75057.72%2751.48%3,15116.92%18,624Pendleton61418.31%2,65879.27%812.42%2,04460.96%3,353Pleasants64119.40%2,56977.75%942.85%1,92858.35%3,304Pocahontas1,01426.66%2,64969.64%1413.71%1,63542.98%3,804Preston2,47717.50%9,98870.58%1,68711.92%7,51153.07%14,152Putnam6,84125.38%19,18471.17%9303.45%12,34345.79%26,955Raleigh6,97023.24%21,79672.68%1,2254.08%14,82649.43%29,991Randolph2,88125.23%8,10770.99%4323.78%5,22645.76%11,420Ritchie54713.87%3,27883.11%1193.02%2,73169.24%3,944Roane1,19021.87%4,10075.35%1512.78%2,91053.48%5,441Summers1,26724.67%3,70872.21%1603.12%2,44147.54%5,135Taylor1,51821.09%5,34474.23%3374.68%3,82653.15%7,199Tucker84923.51%2,54470.45%2186.04%1,69546.94%3,611Tyler64318.10%2,79578.67%1153.24%2,15260.57%3,553Upshur1,87919.39%7,43776.75%3743.86%5,55857.36%9,690Wayne3,39222.25%11,41674.89%4352.85%8,02452.64%15,243Webster54118.40%2,33179.26%692.35%1,79060.86%2,941Wetzel1,49424.58%4,46973.54%1141.88%2,97548.96%6,077Wirt41916.63%2,00179.40%1003.97%1,58262.78%2,520Wood9,38125.60%26,08471.18%1,1783.21%16,70345.58%36,643Wyoming95612.96%6,20784.13%2152.91%5,25171.17%7,378Totals207,54827.76%514,07968.75%26,0753.49%306,53141.00%747,702

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Brooke (largest borough: Wellsburg) Boone (largest city: Madison) Braxton (largest town: Sutton) Cabell (largest city: Huntington) Fayette (largest city: Fayetteville) Gilmer (largest city: Glenville) Greenbrier (largest city: Lewisburg) Jefferson (largest city: Charles Town) Harrison (largest city: Clarksburg) Kanawha (largest city: Charleston) Lincoln (largest city: Hamlin) Marshall (largest city: Moundsville) Mason (largest city: Point Pleasant) Marion (largest city: Fairmont) McDowell (largest city: Welch) Mineral (largest municipality: Keyser) Monongalia (largest city: Morgantown) Ohio (largest city: Wheeling) Putnam (largest municipality: Hurricane) Randolph (largest city: Elkins) Roane (largest city: Spencer) Summers (largest city: Hinton) Wayne (largest city: Kenova) Wetzel (largest city: New Martinsville) Wood (largest municipality: Parkersburg)

By congressional district