2020 Eden-Monaro by-election

The 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election was held on 4 July 2020 to elect the next Member of the Australian Parliament for the division of Eden-Monaro in the House of Representatives. The by-election was triggered following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Mike Kelly. Kelly resigned on 30 April 2020, citing ill health.

The poll occurred amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, and was the first by-election of the 46th Parliament of Australia. On the morning after the by-election, ABC News psephologist Antony Green called the election for the Labor candidate Kristy McBain.

Background

The electorate of Eden-Monaro has long been regarded as a bellwether seat. From the 1972 federal election to the 2013 federal election, the seat was won by a member of the same political party that also formed government following the election. At the 2016 election, the seat was won by Mike Kelly, who defeated incumbent Liberal MP Peter Hendy. Kelly, a veteran of the Australian Army, had previously represented the electorate in the House of Representatives between 2007 and 2013, and retained his seat at the 2019 election despite a 2% swing against him. At the time, Eden-Monaro was Labor's fourth-most marginal seat, held by a margin of only 0.85%.

+ Two-party-preferred vote in Eden-Monaro, 1996–2019 Election 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Labor 45.24% 49.82% 48.31% 47.86% 53.40% 54.24% 49.39% 52.93% 50.85% Liberal 54.76% 50.18% 51.69% 52.14% 46.60% 45.76% 50.61% 47.07% 49.15% Government LNP LNP LNP LNP ALP ALP LNP LNP LNP

Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party Scott Morrison confirmed that the party would contest a by-election in Eden-Monaro were it to occur. Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the National Party Michael McCormack also declared his party would contest the by-election.

After speculation that he would retire from politics, Kelly announced his resignation on 30 April, citing personal health issues relating to his time in the Australian Army.

Key dates Key dates in relation to the by-election are: Thursday, 28 May 2020 – Issue of writ Thursday, 4 June 2020 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm) Tuesday, 9 June 2020 – Close of nominations (12 noon) Wednesday, 10 June 2020 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon) Monday, 15 June 2020 – Start of early voting Saturday, 4 July 2020 – Polling day (8am to 6pm) Friday, 17 July 2020 – Last day for receipt of postal votes Monday, 20 July 2020 – Declaration of result Saturday, 5 September 2020 – Last day for return of writs

Preselection Labor Kristy McBain, Mayor of Bega Valley Shire, nominated for Labor preselection on 1 May 2020. Anthony Albanese, the federal Labor leader, endorsed McBain as his preferred candidate later that day. On 4 May, McBain was preselected as Labor's candidate, against Yass Valley branch president Michael Pilbrow.

Liberal On 5 May, Andrew Constance, New South Wales Minister for Transport and Roads and state MP for Bega confirmed that he would seek Liberal Party preselection, before announcing the following day he would not run for the seat. Jerry Nockles, a former Navy seaman, and Pru Gordon, the general manager for economics and trade at the National Farmers' Federation, were also named as potential candidates.

Preselection for the Liberal Party was held on 22–23 May, and was contested by two candidates: Fiona Kotvojs, the Liberal Party candidate for Eden-Monaro at the 2019 federal election, and Mark Schweikert, a Queanbeyan–Palerang councillor and director in the Department of Defence.

Following the preselection, Kotvojs was endorsed as the Liberal Party candidate.

Nationals John Barilaro, the Deputy Premier of New South Wales and state MP for Monaro, had publicly expressed interest in running for Nationals preselection, though on 4 May he announced that he would not stand for the seat.

Preselection for the National Party was held on 6 June, and was contested by four candidates: Fleur Flanery, organiser of the Australian Landscape Conference, Michael Green, farmer and chair of the NSW Farmers Association (Cooma branch), Mareeta Grundy, former candidate for Queanbeyan–Palerang Regional Council, and Trevor Hicks, former Deputy Mayor of Queanbeyan–Palerang Regional Council.

Following the preselection, Hicks was endorsed as the National Party candidate.

Candidates Candidates (14) in ballot paper order Party Candidate Background Matthew Stadtmiller Hilltops councillor. Contested Cootamundra at 2017 state by-election and 2019 state election. Science James Jansson Software developer, epidemiologist and party founder. Contested Kingsford Smith at the 2019 federal election. HEMP Michael Balderstone Party leader and perennial candidate. Cannabis legalisation activist and president of the Nimbin Hemp Embassy. Independent James Holgate Recruitment consultant. National Trevor Hicks Former Queanbeyan–Palerang deputy mayor. Liberal Democrats Dean McCrae Chef and party branch coordinator. Contested Goulburn and Lyne at the 2019 state and federal elections, respectively. Sustainable Australia Joy Angel Office manager. Contested ACT Senate seat at the 2019 federal election. Labor Kristy McBain Mayor of Bega Valley Shire. Independent Riccardo Bosi Businessman, veteran and founder of unregistered Australia One party. Independent Karen Porter Small business owner, member of unregistered New Liberals party. Greens Cathy Griff Bega Valley Shire councillor. Christian Democrats Narelle Storey Carer, founder of not-for-profit platform ReStore Australia. Contested Werriwa at the 2019 federal election. Australian Federation Jason Potter Business consultant. Liberal Fiona Kotvojs Former teacher, scientist and small business operator. Contested Eden-Monaro at the 2019 federal election.

Opinion polling +Eden-Monaro by-election pollingDateFirmCommissioned bySamplePrimary voteTPP vote ALP LIBGRN NAT SFF OTH ALP LIB NAT 30 June 2020 uComms Australia Institute 643 38.1% 37.5% 7.3% 5.0% 4.2% 7.9% 52% 48% – 16 June 2020 uComms Australian Forest Products Association 816 – – 6.3% 6.7% 3.6% – 52% 48% – 15 June 2020 uComms Australia Institute 643 36.5% 29.9% 8.1% 6.1% 6.5% 12.9% 53% 47% – 12 June 2020 Internal polling Unconfirmed 600 31% 38% 6% 6% 5% 14% – – – 12 May 2020 uComms Australia Institute 978 39.8% 34.3% 6.7% 7.3% – 11.9% 51.1% 48.9% – 1 May 2020 Internal polling National Party 1296 35% 21% 8% 30% – 6% 48% – 52% 30 April 2020 Mike Kelly announces retirement 18 May 2019 election 39.2% 37.0% 8.8% 7.0% – 8.1% 50.8% 49.2% –

Notes 1. 3% One Nation, 11% others/undecided 2. 6.5% One Nation, 5.4% others/undecided

Results

See also List of Australian federal by-elections

References

External links Eden-Monaro by-election – ABC Elections Eden-Monaro by-election – Australian Electoral Commission Eden-Monaro by-election – The Tally Room

2020 Eden-Monaro by-election

Bron en licentie