The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies in the lead up to the 46th Canadian federal election are detailed in this article.
Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.
Constituency polls
Alberta Edmonton Riverbend Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others UndecidedMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodLiaison 45 50 2 1 1 1 N/A ±3.9 pp 614 IVR
British Columbia
North Vancouver—Capilano Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others UndecidedMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodLiaison/Poliwave 46.8 30.3 11.9 10.8 0.2 N/A N/A ±5.2 pp 528 IVR
Vancouver Kingsway Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others UndecidedMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodLiaison 31 23 40 3 2 1 N/A ±4.01 pp 576 IVR
Nova Scotia
Acadie—Annapolis Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others UndecidedMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodLiaison 52 37 5 3 2 1 N/A ±4.3 pp 513 IVR
Ontario
Beaches—East York
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others UndecidedMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodLiaison/Poliwave 55.0 20.6 20.7 2.6 1.7 N/A N/A ±5.1 pp 538 IVRMainstreet Research 60.6 15.2 10.8 2.7 N/A 1.7 8.9 ±4.7 pp 440 Telephone
Eglinton—Lawrence
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others UndecidedMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodLiaison 52 41 3 2 1 1 N/A ±3.99 pp 602 IVR
Scarborough Southwest
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others UndecidedMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchPolling was conducted within the provincial riding of Scarborough Southwest which has boundaries that are close to, but not completely the same as, the federal riding. 44 19 11 1 N/A 3 22 ±4.5 pp 464 Telephone
Quebec
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. BQ NDP Green PPC Others UndecidedMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Segma Research 40.3 16.8 37.8 3.1 0.5 1.5 4.7 448 IVR Liaison/Poliwave 39.9 15.4 35.1 6.1 3.1 0.4 4.7 536 IVR Pallas 28 26 30 3 13 317 IVR
See also Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election
Notes Notes In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research , retrieved October 17, 2012 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.
References