Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020)

Following the referendum in the United Kingdom on its membership of the European Union on 23 June 2016, polling companies continued to use standard questions in order to gauge public opinion on the country's relationship with the EU. Opinion polling overall showed an initial fall in support for Brexit from the referendum to late 2016, when responses were split evenly between support and opposition. Support rose again to a plurality, which held until the 2017 general election. Since then, opinion polls tended to show a plurality of support for remaining in the EU or for the view that Brexit was a mistake, with the estimated margin increasing until a small decrease in 2019 (to 53% Remain : 47% Leave, ). This seems to be largely due to a preference for remaining in the EU among those who did not vote in 2016's referendum (an estimated 2.5 million of whom, , were too young to vote at the time). Other reasons suggested include slightly more Leave voters than Remain voters (14% and 12% of each, respectively, ) changing how they would vote (particularly in Labour areas) and the deaths of older voters, most of whom voted to leave the EU.

Right/wrong

Following the EU referendum, there have been numerous opinion polls on the question of whether the UK was 'right' or 'wrong' to vote to leave the EU. The results of these polls are shown in the table below.

Selective polling Date(s) conducted Right Wrong Undecided Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes26 Feb – 1 Mar 201922%70%8% 48%5,004YouGovOnlineLabour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands5–8 Jul 201876%21%2% 55%966YouGovOnlineConservative Party members

Remain/leave

There have also been polls to gauge support for remaining in or leaving the EU. The following polls, unless the notes state otherwise, asked how respondents would vote in a second referendum.

Selective polling Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Neither Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes23–26 Jul 201946%40%14%6%1,071YouGovOnlineWales only20–23 Jun 201969%28%3%41%1,813YouGovOnlineMembers of trade unions16–20 May 201944%41%15%3%1,009YouGovOnlineWales only26 Feb – 1 Mar 201970%22%8% 48%5,004YouGovOnlineLabour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands69%16%15% 50%YouGovLabour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands. 72%19%10% 53%YouGovLabour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands. 15–22 Feb 201976%14%10% 62%499BMG Research OnlineRespondents of voting age only since 2016's referendum48%22%30% 26%1,125Non-voters2–7 Nov 201861%34%4% 27%914Panelbase OnlineScotland only; likely voters30 Oct – 2 Nov 201845%41%14% 4%1,031YouGovOnlineWales only3–6 Oct 201890%7%2% 83%665YouGovOnlineSNP members; unweighted13–18 Sep 201890%7%3% 83%1,054YouGovOnlineLabour Party members6–11 Sep 201863%18%19% 45%1,645YouGovOnline18–24 age group69%13%18% 56%480Respondents of voting age only since 2016's referendum30 Aug – 5 Sep 201855%37%8% 18%620YouGovOnlineGMB members30 Aug – 5 Sep 201868%27%6% 41%1,081YouGovOnlineUNISON members30 Aug – 5 Sep 201861%35%4% 26%1,058YouGovOnlineUnite the Union members31 Jul – 3 Sep 201858%30%11% 28%3,051YouGovOnlineLondon only24–28 Aug 201860%38%2% 22%1,199DeltapollOnlineNorthern Ireland only31 Jul – 20 Aug 201842%42%16%0%807YouGovOnlineNorth East England only31 Jul – 19 Aug 201844%42%14% 2%939YouGovOnlineWales only8–14 Aug 201858%30%12% 28%1,977YouGovOnlineScotland only31 Jul – 7 Aug 201846%43%11% 3%930YouGovOnlineSouth West England only28 Jun – 2 Jul 201844%39%17% 5%1,031YouGovOnlineWales only12–15 Mar 201845%44%12% 1%1,015YouGovOnlineWales only21–24 Nov 201745%40%15% 5%1,016YouGovOnlineWales only4–7 Sep 201746%42%12% 4%1,011YouGovOnlineWales only29–31 May 201742%45%13% 3%1,014YouGovOnlineWales only18–21 May 201745%43%13% 2%1,025YouGovOnlineWales only5–7 May 201743%44%13% 1%1,018YouGov OnlineWales only19–21 Apr 201743%43%14%0%1,029YouGovOnlineWales only

Three-option referendum On 6 July 2018, the UK Cabinet agreed a statement at Chequers that set out a proposal for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, following which two members of the Cabinet resigned. On 16 July 2018 the former Education Secretary Justine Greening noted the lack of a political consensus behind the Chequers proposal and said that, due to a 'stalemate' in the House of Commons, the issue of Brexit should be referred back to the electorate. She proposed a referendum with three options: to leave the EU on such terms as might be agreed between the UK Government and the EU 27; to leave the EU without agreed terms; or to remain in the EU. Voters would be asked to mark a first and second preference using the supplementary vote system. If there were no majority for any particular option among first-preference votes, the third-placed option would be eliminated and second preferences would be used to determine the winner from the two remaining options.

The following table shows opinion polls that have been conducted on how people would vote in a three-option referendum. The table shows the poll results for a first round in which all three options would be available, and for a second round in which only the top two options in the first round would be available.

Selective polling Date(s) conducted Round Remain Deal No deal None Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes4 Nov 2019—29%38%18%14%9%409SurvationTelephoneOnly in Gedling; 23–26 Jul 2019——61%39%—22%1,071YouGovOnlineWales only. 16–20 May 2019——54%46%—8%1,009YouGovOnlineWales only. 7–10 May 2019—56%23%—21% 33%1,015YouGovOnlineLondon only——38%21%41%17% 6–11 Sep 2018I58%10%9%23% 48%1,645YouGovOnline18–24 age groupII82%18%—— 64%

Four-option referendum Some polls have offered respondents a choice between remaining in the EU, leaving the EU but remaining within the European Single Market or EU Customs Union (see notes), accepting the negotiated deal and leaving without a deal. Date(s) conducted Remain Single Market Deal No deal None Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes 15–19 Aug 201933%13%9%23%22%10%1,133Kantar Online 30 Jun – 1 Jul 201938%11%12%26%13%12%1,668YouGovOnline 17–18 Jun 201943%16%13%28%—15%1,680YouGovOnline28–29 May 201946%13% 9%32%—14%1,763YouGovOnline22–26 Mar 201946%14% 14%27%—19%5,412YouGovOnline

Support for another referendum There have been opinion polls to gauge support for a second referendum, on whether to accept or reject the final Brexit deal. Polling results vary depending on how the question is phrased: in general a "second referendum" is less popular than a "public vote" or similar descriptor. One YouGov poll conducted in April 2018 for Best for Britain showed much greater support for the public "[having] a final say on whether Britain accepts the deal or remains in the EU after all" than for "a public vote" on the same question.

Selective polling Date(s) conducted Support Oppose Neither Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes23–26 Jul 201943%46%11%3%1,071YouGovOnlineWales only. 20–23 Jun 201964%33%3%31%1,813YouGovOnlineMembers of trade unions16–20 May 201940%49%12%9%1,009YouGovOnlineWales only. 26 Feb – 1 Mar 201965%22%13% 43%5,004YouGovOnlineLabour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands15–22 Feb 201954%19%27% 35%499BMG ResearchOnlineRespondents of voting age only since 2016's referendum38%25%37% 13%1,125Non-voters30 Oct – 2 Nov 201841%49%10% 8%1,031YouGovOnlineWales only. 3–6 Oct 201883%10%6% 73%665YouGovOnlineSNP members; unweighted13–18 Sep 201886%8%6% 78%1,054YouGovOnlineLabour Party members6–11 Sep 201852%22%25% 30%1,645YouGovOnline18–24 age group30 Aug – 5 Sep 201856%33%10% 23%620YouGovOnlineGMB members30 Aug – 5 Sep 201866%22%11% 44%1,081YouGovOnlineUNISON members30 Aug – 5 Sep 201859%33%8% 26%1,058YouGovOnlineUnite the Union members31 Jul – 3 Sep 201852%30%19% 22%3,051YouGovOnlineLondon only31 Jul – 19 Aug 201844%36%21% 8%939YouGovOnlineWales only28 Jun – 2 Jul 201840%45%15% 5%1,031YouGovOnlineWales only. 27–30 Jun 201857%34%9% 23%902YouGovOnlineUnite the Union members12–15 Mar 201839%49%12% 10%1,015YouGovOnlineWales only. 21–24 Nov 201744%43%13% 1%1,016YouGovOnlineWales only. 4–7 Sep 201740%48%12% 8%1,011YouGovOnlineWales only. 29–31 May 201733%56%11% 23%1,025YouGovOnlineWales only. 18–21 May 201737%52%11% 15%1,025YouGovOnlineWales only. 5–7 May 201737%53%10% 16%1,018YouGovOnlineWales only. 19–21 Apr 201735%53%12% 18%1,029YouGovOnlineWales only.

On the UK rejoining the EU

Some polls conducted prior to the UK's formal exit worded the question as whether to rejoin rather than stay in the EU. Date(s) conductedJoinNot joinNeitherLeadSampleConducted byPolling type 27 Mar 201938%38%25% Tie1,005Sky DataOnline 27 Mar – 5 Apr 201831% 47%22% 16%1,037Number Cruncher Politics Online

See also Opinion polling on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union (2020–present) Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election Opinion polling for the 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom

References

External links EURef2 Poll of Polls — What UK Thinks