2022 Portuguese legislative election

An early legislative election was held on 30 January 2022 in Portugal to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 15th Legislature of the Third Portuguese Republic. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were up for election.

The election was called after the government's state budget was rejected by Parliament in late October 2021. This election was also the third national election held in Portugal during the COVID-19 pandemic - as the country held a presidential election (January) and local elections (September) in 2021 - and the fourth overall, with the Azorean regional election in October 2020.

The Socialist Party (PS) of incumbent Prime Minister António Costa won an unexpected majority government in the Assembly of the Republic, the second in the party's history. The PS received 41.4 percent of the vote and 120 seats, four seats above the minimum required for a majority. The PS won the most votes in all districts in mainland Portugal, only failing to win the Autonomous Region of Madeira. Political analysts considered the PS to have benefited from voters of the BE and the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) casting their votes for the PS instead.

The Social Democratic Party (PSD) remained stable but underperformed opinion polls that had predicted a close race with the PS. The PSD won 29.1 percent of the vote, a slightly higher share than in 2019, and received 77 seats, two seats less than the previous election. The PSD was surpassed by the PS in districts like Leiria and Viseu, and lost Bragança by only 15 votes to the PS. In the aftermath of the election, party leader Rui Rio announced he would resign from the leadership.

Chega finished in third place, winning 12 seats and 7.2 percent of the vote. The Liberal Initiative (IL) finished in fourth place, winning 8 seats and 4.9 percent of the vote. Both parties experienced a surge of voters and made gains this election, though Chega received 100,000 fewer votes than its leader had received in the previous year's presidential election, an election in which turnout was lower.

Both BE and CDU suffered significant losses, being surpassed by the IL and Chega. Their rejection of the 2022 budget was considered to be a factor in losing votes and seats, along with tactical voting. The BE won 5 seats and 4.4 percent of the vote. CDU won 6 seats and 4.3 percent of the vote, while losing seats in Évora and Santarém districts. The Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) lost all their seats for the first time.

The CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) lost all their seats for the first time, receiving 1.6 percent of the vote. Party leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos announced his resignation. People Animals Nature (PAN) suffered losses as well, winning 1 seat and 1.6 percent of the vote, 3 fewer seats than in the previous election. LIVRE won 1 seat and received 1.3 percent of the vote, holding on to the single seat they won in the previous election, with party leader Rui Tavares being elected in Lisbon.

Voter turnout grew, compared with the previous election, with 51.5 percent of registered voters casting a ballot, despite the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.

After controversies and accusations because of the counting of overseas ballots, the Constitutional Court forced the repetition of the election in the Europe constituency, which elects two MPs. Therefore, the swearing in of the new Parliament and Government was delayed by a month and a half. The rerun of the election in the overseas constituency of Europe occurred, for in person voting, on 12 and 13 March 2022, and postal ballots were received until 23 March 2022. The final, certified results of the election were published in the official journal, Diário da República, on 26 March 2022.

Background After winning the October 2019 legislative election with 36% of the votes, more than 8 percentage points ahead of the PSD, the Socialists decided to not renew the 2015 "Geringonça" (Contraption) deal with the Left Bloc and the Communist Party, opting to govern through a case-by-case approach between the left-wing and right-wing opposition parties. This option, exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, increased political instability, despite a robust post-pandemic economic recovery. During Costa's second minority government term, the PS lost the regional government of the Azores, and also suffered losses in the 2021 local elections, especially in Lisbon.

Fall of the government

On 27 October 2021, the budget proposed by the Socialist minority government was rejected by the Assembly of the Republic. The Left Bloc (BE) and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), both of whom had previously supported the government, joined the centre-right to right-wing opposition parties and rejected the budget."Parlamento chumba Orçamento do Estado " , SIC Notícias, 27 October 2021. Retrieved 27 October 2021. Prime Minister António Costa said to members of parliament, in his speech before the final vote, that he would not resign and would ask for a "stable, reinforced and lasting new majority" if an early election was called.

After the Parliamentary vote, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa started hearing parties and convened the Council of State, announcing on 4 November 2021 the dissolution of Parliament and a snap election for 30 January 2022.

Leadership changes and challenges Liberal Initiative Early in December 2019, the Liberal Initiative (IL) elected a new leader after their previous leader, Carlos Guimarães Pinto, stepped down. Their sole MP, João Cotrim de Figueiredo, was elected as leader with 96 percent of the votes in the party's convention."João Cotrim Figueiredo eleito presidente da Iniciativa Liberal com 96% dos votos ", Observador, 8 December 2019. Retrieved 5 January 2020. The results were the following:

Social Democratic Party

The Social Democrats (PSD), the largest opposition party, held a two-round leadership election on 11 January and 18 January 2020. Three candidates were in the race: incumbent PSD leader Rui Rio, former PSD parliamentary caucus leader Luís Montenegro and current Deputy Mayor of Cascais Miguel Pinto Luz."Três candidaturas à presidência do PSD formalmente aceites ", Observador, 2 January 2020. Retrieved 5 January 2020. Around 40,000 party members, out of almost 110,000, were registered to vote."Pelo menos 40 mil militantes podem votar nas próximas diretas do PSD", Correio da Manhã, 23 December 2019. Retrieved 5 January 2020. In the first round, on 11 January, Rui Rio polled ahead with 49 percent of the votes against the 41.4 percent of Luís Montenegro and 9.6 percent of Miguel Pinto Luz, with both Rio and Montenegro qualifying for a second round."Eleições PSD: Rio obteve 49,02% dos votos na 1.ª volta e Montenegro 41,42%", TVI24, 15 January 2020. Retrieved 19 January 2020. A week later, on 18 January, Rui Rio was re-elected as PSD leader with 53.2 percent of the votes, against the 46.8 percent of Luís Montenegro."Rio é reeleito e mostra-se disposto a gerar unidade no PSD ", Público, 19 January 2020. Retrieved 19 January 2020. In both rounds, turnout of registered members achieved almost 80%. The results were the following:

A leadership election in the PSD was held on 27 November 2021. The original date was 4 December 2021, but the party voted to advance the date in one week. MEP Paulo Rangel was a candidate for the leadership. He faced incumbent PSD leader Rui Rio, who announced his re-election bid on 19 October 2021. Around 46,000 party members, out of more than 85,000 active members, were registered to vote. On 27 November 2021, Rui Rio defeated Paulo Rangel by a 52.4 to 47.6 percent margin and was reelected for a 3rd term as party leader. The results were the following:

LIVRE The party held a leadership congress between 18 and 19 January 2020. The congress was very tense, being dominated by the political, and also personal, feud between party founder, and de facto leader, Rui Tavares and the party's sole MP Joacine Katar Moreira. Katar Moreira wasn't invited to be part of the contact group (the party's leading organism), and during the congress, she accused the party of "persecuting" her, adding that the party used her, as a black woman, to obtain electoral subsidies. She was also outraged by the party's proposal to expel her. A few days after the congress, the party's leadership assembly approved Katar Moreira's expulsion from the party. The leadership ballot only had one list, headed by Isabel Mendes Lopes and Filipe Honório, and supported by Tavares, which was easily elected.

Rui Tavares would ultimately be LIVRE's leading candidate during the legislative election campaign.

CDS – People's Party

2022 Portuguese legislative election

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