The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican former U.S. Navy captain Hung Cao by an 8.93% margin. Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024. Although Kaine underperformed polling and won by his lowest margin since his first election in 2012, he outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election by 3.15 percentage points.

Background Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.

Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Virginia since 2002.

This race was considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Tim Kaine, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handTim Kaine (D)$14,583,509$8,488,125$8,615,046Source: Federal Election Commission

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Hung Cao, former U.S. Navy captain and nominee for in 2022

Eliminated in primary Jonathan Emord, constitutional lawyer Eddie Garcia, financial advisor and former congressional aide Scott Parkinson, former Club for Growth vice president of government affairs and former chief of staff to Ron DeSantis Chuck Smith, former chair of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, nominee for in 2010, and candidate for attorney general in 2017 and 2021

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handHung Cao (R)$2,508,562$2,398,405$202,637Jonathan Emord (R)$932,828$897,923$34,905Eddie Garcia (R)$340,558$315,309$25,249Scott Parkinson (R)$930,240$601,089$329,151Chuck Smith (R)$556,762$536,262$20,499Source: Federal Election Commission

Campaign Hung Cao, the eventual Republican nominee, was embroiled in multiple controversies. Following the partial collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge after being struck by a container ship, Cao blamed Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg for the accident, claiming that Buttigieg "spends more time talking about racial equity with regard to highways and about climate change than about focusing on the fundamentals of keeping our country and our infrastructure working." Later, Cao claimed that Monterey, California is "a very dark place now, a lot of witchcraft, and the Wiccan community has really taken over there," adding that "we can't let that happen in Virginia."

In February 2023, Cao announced the formation of a PAC called Unleash America, with the PAC's goal being "to get Republicans elected" in the House of Delegates elections and State Senate elections in 2023. However, in April 2024, the Staunton-based publication The News Leader published an article claiming that none of the $103,489 raised by the PAC was spent on state house or state senate elections, but were instead spent on Cao's Senate bid. Cao would respond by denouncing the article as a "hit job" by a "podunk local newspaper" that he claimed was run by "left-wing hacks." In a virtual town hall hosted by the Fauquier County Republican Committee, Cao would also say that it would be "ridonkulous" and "crazy" for him to “drive six and a half hours down to Abingdon or something like that and to stand there with four other dudes and to have 30 seconds to answer questions." His comments have drawn backlash and accusations of being dismissive to rural portions of the commonwealth.

Despite these controversies, Cao was endorsed by former president Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. He would later win the party's nomination easily.

Results

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 9, 2023 Elections Daily August 9, 2024 Inside Elections November 9, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 9, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill August 26, 2024 CNalysis November 21, 2023 RealClearPolitics August 5, 2024 Split Ticket October 23, 2024 538 November 2, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handTim Kaine (D)$15,990,927$10,698,945$7,811,645Hung Cao (R)$3,051,361$2,729,334$414,508Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated TimKaine (D) HungCao (R) UndecidedMarginFiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202451.9%41.2%6.9%Kaine +10.7%RealClearPoliticsRealClearPoliticsOctober 19 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202452.0%41.2%6.8%Kaine +10.8%270toWin270toWinOctober 26 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202451.2%41.8%7.0%Kaine +9.4%TheHill/DDHQTheHill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202452.2%42.4%6.4%Kaine +9.8%Average51.8%41.6%6.6%Kaine +10.2% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TimKaine (D) HungCao (R) Other UndecidedAtlasIntelAtlasIntelNovember 1–4, 20242,202 (LV)± 2.0%53%44%1%2%Research Co.Research Co.November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%53%41%–6%Chism StrategiesChism StrategiesOctober 28–30, 2024520 (LV)± 4.3%46%45%–9%Cygnal (R)Cygnal (R)October 27–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%42%–7%Roanoke CollegeRoanoke CollegeOctober 25–29, 2024851 (LV)± 4.6%51%40%3%6%ActiVoteActiVoteOctober 2–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%––The Washington Post/George Mason UniversityThe Washington Post/George Mason UniversityOctober 19–23, 20241,004 (LV)± 3.5%54%41%1%4%1,004 (RV)± 3.5%54%40%1%5%ActiVoteActiVoteSeptember 9 – October 14, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%44%––Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport UniversitySeptember 28 – October 4, 2024800 (LV)± 4.4%55%35%5%5%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeSeptember 22–24, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%51%41%2%6%Research AmericaResearch AmericaSeptember 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.0%45%38%8%9%756 (LV)± 3.5%49%43%2%6%The Washington Post/George Mason UniversityThe Washington Post/George Mason UniversitySeptember 4–8, 20241,005 (RV)± 3.5%53%41%1%5%1,005 (LV)± 3.5%53%41%–5%ActiVoteActiVoteJuly 24 – September 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%––Roanoke CollegeRoanoke CollegeAugust 12–16, 2024691 (LV)± 4.5%49%38%10%3%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeJuly 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%39%4%8%Mainstreet Research/FAUMainstreet Research/FAUJuly 14–15, 2024301 (A)± 3.2%42%33%5%20%265 (LV)± 3.2%44%34%4%19%July 12–13, 2024617 (A)± 3.2%45%32%7%15%544 (LV)± 3.2%47%34%6%13%NYT/Siena CollegeNYT/Siena CollegeJuly 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%52%34%–14%661 (LV)± 4.4%52%36%–12%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityVirginia Commonwealth UniversityJune 24 – July 3, 2024809 (A)± 4.8%49%38%14%–Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)April 26–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%48%36%1%16%

Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TimKaine (D) GlennYoungkin (R) Other UndecidedVirginia Commonwealth UniversityVirginia Commonwealth UniversityJuly 14–25, 2023804 (A)± 5.46%47%42%3%7%University of Mary WashingtonUniversity of Mary WashingtonSeptember 6–12, 20221,000 (A)± 3.1%41%39%10%10%

Debates + 2024 Virginia U.S. Senate election debate Date Host Moderators Link Democratic RepublicanKey: Participant  Absent  Not invited  Invited Withdrawn Kaine Cao1 Oct. 2, 2024 NSU Tom Schaad & Deanna Allbrittin YouTube

Results

By county and independent city