Opinion polling for the 2022 Brazilian presidential election

Since the 2018 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking voting intention for the next election. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order and include candidates who frequently polled above 3%.

The first round of the 2022 Brazilian general election took place on 2 October. As no candidate reached a majority of the votes, a second round was held on 30 October.

First round The first round took place on 2 October 2022.

Chart

Polling aggregation Aggregator Last update Bolsonaro Lula Gomes Tebet Others Blank/Null/Undec. Lead The Economist 1 Oct 2022 38% 51% 5% 6% (N/A) (N/A) Lula +13 Veja 1 Oct 2022 33.7% 44.7% 6.8% 4.7% (N/A) (N/A) Lula +11.0 Estadão 1 Oct 2022 33% 47% 5% 6% 2% 7% Lula +14 CNN Brasil 1 Oct 2022 34% 48% 5% 6% 2% 6% Lula +14 PollingData 1 Oct 2022 37.5% 43.7% 5.1% 5.3% 1.9% 6.5% Lula +6.2 El País 1 Oct 2022 35.3% 46.7% 6.0% 4.9% (N/A) (N/A) Lula +11.4 El Electoral 1 Oct 2022 38.5% 48.5% 5.5% 5.0% (N/A) (N/A) Lula +10.0 Pollstergraph 1 Oct 2022 37.1% 44.8% 5.6% 4.7% (N/A) (N/A) Lula +7.7

2022

Jul–Oct Publisher/Pollster Pollingperiod Samplesize Bolsonaro Lula Gomes Tebet Others Blank/Null/Undec. LeadResults2 OctValid votes 43.2% 48.4% 3.0% 4.2% 1.2%(N/A) 5.2%Total votes 41.3% 46.3% 2.9% 3.9% 1.1% 4.4% 5.0% Datafolha 30 Sep – 1 Oct 12,800 34% 48% 5% 6% 2% 5% 14% IPEC 29 Sep – 1 Oct 3,008 34% 47% 5% 5% 2% 7% 13% Abrapel/Ipespe 30 Sep 1,100 33% 46% 7% 6% 1% 4% 13% Atlas 28–30 Sep 4,500 40.7% 49.8% 3.9% 2.6% 1.8% 1% 9.1% CNT/MDA 28–30 Sep 2,002 36.3% 44.2% 4.5% 4.3% 2.2% 8.5% 7.9%29 SepThird presidential debate.Datafolha 27–29 Sep 6,800 34% 48% 6% 5% 1.2% 4% 14%Atlas 24–28 Sep 4,500 39.9% 49.3% 3.5% 2.5% 1.9% 2.7% 9.4%Exame/Ideia 23–28 Sep 1,500 37% 47% 6% 5% 1.2% 4% 10%Genial/Quaest 24–27 Sep 2,000 33% 46% 6% 5% 1% 9% 13%Atlas 22–26 Sep 4,500 41% 48.3% 3.5% 2.1% 2.7% 2.3% 7.3%Ipec 25–26 Sep 3,008 31% 48% 6% 5% 2% 8% 17%BTG Pactual/FSB 23–25 Sep 2,000 35% 45% 7% 4% 2% 6% 10%24 SepSecond presidential debate. Lula did not attend.Abrapel/Ipespe 21–23 Sep 1,100 35% 46% 6% 4% 0% 9% 11% Datafolha 20–22 Sep 6,754 33% 47% 7% 5% 1% 6% 14% XP/Ipespe 19–21 Sep 2,000 35% 46% 7% 4% 1% 7% 11% PoderData 18–20 Sep 3,500 37% 44% 7% 4% 2% 5% 7% Genial/Quaest 17–20 Sep 2,000 34% 44% 6% 5% 1% 10% 10% Arko/Atlas 16–20 Sep 7,514 38.6% 48.4% 6.3% 4.0% 1.8% 1% 9.8%Ipec 17–18 Sep 3,008 31% 47% 7% 5% 1% 9% 16% BTG/FSB 16–18 Sep 2,000 35% 44% 7% 5% 1% 7% 9%Abrapel/Ipespe 14–16 Sep 1,100 35% 45% 7% 5% 2% 5% 10%Datafolha 13–15 Sep 5,926 33% 45% 8% 5% 2% 6% 12% PoderData 11–13 Sep 3,500 37% 43% 8% 5% 1% 5% 6%Genial/Quaest 10–13 Sep 2,000 34% 42% 7% 4% 2% 11% 8%Globo/Ipec 9–11 Sep 2,512 31% 46% 7% 4% 2% 10% 15%BTG/FSB 9–11 Sep 2,000 35% 41% 9% 7% 2% 6% 6%Datafolha 8–9 Sep 2,676 34% 45% 7% 5% 1% 7% 11%Abrapel/Ipespe 7–9 Sep 1,100 36% 44% 8% 5% 2% 5% 8%BTG/FSB 2–4 Sep 2,000 34% 42% 8% 6% 3% 7%8%Globo/Ipec 2–4 Sep 2,512 31% 44% 8% 4% 2% 11% 13%Genial/Quaest 1–4 Sep 2,000 34% 44% 7% 4% 2% 9% 10%Abrapel/Ipespe 30 Aug – 1 Sep 1,100 35% 44% 9% 5% 2% 5% 9%Datafolha 30 Aug – 1 Sep 5,734 32% 45% 9% 5% 3% 6% 13%PoderData 28–30 Aug 3,500 36% 44% 8% 4% 1% 5% 8%Paraná Pesquisas 26–30 Aug 2,020 37.1% 41.3% 7.7% 2.4% 1.6% 9.9% 4.2%XP/Ipespe 26–29 Aug 2,000 35% 43% 9% 5% 1% 6% 8%28 AugFirst presidential debate.BTG/FSB 26–28 Aug 2,000 36% 43% 9% 4% 2% 7% 7%Ipec 26–28 Aug 2,000 32% 44% 7% 3% 1% 13% 12%Quaest 25–28 Aug 2,000 32% 44% 8% 3% 2% 11% 12%CNT/MDA 25–28 Aug 2,002 34.1% 42.3% 7.3% 2.1% 1.1% 12.8% 8.2%26 AugBeginning of the period allowed for political advertisement on television and radio.Atlas 20–25 Aug 7,475 38.3% 46.7% 6.4% 3.6% 3.1% 1.9% 8.4%Exame/Ideia 19–24 Aug 1,500 36% 44% 9% 4% 3.6% 5% 8%Paraná Pesquisas 19–23 Aug 2,020 37% 41.7% 7.3% 2.7% 1% 10.1% 4.7%BTG/FSB 19–21 Aug 2,000 36% 45% 6% 3% 2% 9% 9%Datafolha 16–18 Aug 5,744 32% 47% 7% 2% 1% 8% 15%16 AugOfficial beginning of the election campaign.PoderData 14–16 Aug 3,500 37% 44% 6% 4% 1% 7% 7% IPEC 12–14 Aug 2,000 32% 44% 6% 2% % 15% 12% FSB Comunicação 12–14 Aug 2,000 34% 45% 8% 2% % 8% 11%Quaest/Genial 11–14 Aug 2,000 33% 45% 6% 3% 1% 12% 12% FSB Comunicação 5–7 Aug 2,000 34% 41% 7% 3% % 11% 7% 5 Aug Brazil Union formally launches the candidacy of senator Soraya Thronicke. 4 Aug André Janones (Avante) withdraws his candidacy; endorses Lula. PoderData 31 Jul – 2 Aug 3,500 35% 43% 7% 4% 4% 6% 8% Paraná Pesquisas 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2,020 35.6% 41.1% 7.9% 1.8% % 10.3% 5.5% 31 JulCongressman Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union) withdraws his candidacy. Quaest/Genial 28–31 Jul 2,000 32% 44% 5% 2% % 12% 12% Datafolha 27–28 Jul 2,566 29% 47% 8% 2% % 9% 18% BTG/FSB 22–24 Jul 2,000 31% 44% 9% 2% % 10% 13% XP/Ipespe 20–22 Jul 2,000 35% 44% 9% 4% % 6% 9% 20 JulBeginning of the period for the realization of party conventions. Exame/Ideia 15–20 Jul 1,500 33% 44% 8% 4% % 7% 11% PoderData 17–19 Jul 3,000 37% 43% 6% 3% % 8% 6% rowspan=2 BTG/FSB 8–10 Jul 2,000 32% 41% 9% 4% % 8% 9% 32% 42% 9% 4% 4% 9% 10% PoderData 3–5 Jul 3,000 36% 44% 5% 3% % 9% 8% rowspan=3 Quaest/Genial 29 Jun – 2 Jul 2,000 31% 45% 6% 2% % 12% 14% 31% 45% 7% 3% 3% 11% 14% 31% 47% 8% 3% 0% 12% 16%

Apr–Jun Publisher/Pollster PollingperiodSamplesize Bolsonaro Lula Gomes Doria Others Blank/Null/Undec. Lead BTG/FSB 24–26 Jun 2,000 33% 43% 8% 7% 9% 10% Modalmais/Futura 20–24 Jun 2,000 37.6% 38.9% 7.3% 5.1% 11% 1.3% Datafolha 22–23 Jun 2,556 28% 47% 8% 5% 11% 19% Exame/Ideia 17–22 Jun 1,500 36% 45% 7% 6% 7% 9% PoderData 19–21 Jun 3,000 34% 44% 6% 5% 9% 10% BTG/FSB 10–12 Jun 2,000 32% 44% 9% 4% 8% 12% PoderData 5–7 Jun 3,000 35% 43% 6% 5% 10% 8% rowspan=3 Quaest/Genial 2–5 Jun 2,000 30% 46% 7% 4% 13% 16% 29% 47% 9% 3% 12% 18% 30% 48% 9% 3% 11% 18% rowspan=2 Instituto GERP 30 May – 3 Jun 2,095 37% 39% 8% 6% 10% 2% 37% 39% 7% 8% 9% 2% XP/Ipespe 30 May – 1 Jun 1,000 34% 45% 9% 6% 7% 11% Paraná Pesquisas 26–30 May 2,020 35.3% 41.4% 7.7% 5.4% 10.1% 6.1% BTG/FSB 27–29 May 2,000 32% 46% 9% 3% 8% 14% Datafolha 25–26 May 2,556 27% 48% 7% 6% 11% 21% XP/Ipespe 23–25 May 1,000 34% 45% 8% 7% 5% 11% CNN Brasil/Real Time Big Data 23–24 May 3,000 32% 40% 9% 5% 13% 8% PoderData 22–24 May 3,000 35% 43% 5% 1% 7% 10% 8% 23 May Facing pressure from within his own party, João Doria, former governor of São Paulo, withdraws his candidacy. Modalmais/Futura 16–19 May 2,000 36% 41% 5.6% 2.5% 4.1% 10.8% 5% rowspan=2 Exame/Ideia 14–19 May 1,500 32% 41% 9% 2% 5.2% 12% 9% 33% 40% 8% — 6.9% 14% 7% XP/Ipespe 16–18 May 1,000 32% 44% 8% 4% 4% 8% 12% XP/Ipespe 9–11 May 1,000 32% 44% 8% 3% 3% 10% 12% rowspan=2 PoderData 8–10 May 3,000 35% 42% 5% 4% 5% 9% 7% 35% 42% 7% 5% 5% 7% 7% rowspan=4 Quaest/Genial 5–8 May 2,000 29% 46% 7% 3% 5% 9% 17% 31% 46% 9% 4% 10% 15% 33% 50% 5% 12% 17% 33% 48% 10% 10% 15% 7 May Former President Lula formally launches his candidacy. CNT/MDA 4–7 May 2,002 32% 40.6% 7.1% 3.1% 5.1% 12.1% 8.6% XP/Ipespe 2–4 May 1,000 31% 44% 8% 3% 4% 10% 13% rowspan=2 Paraná Pesquisas 28 Apr – 3 May 2,020 35.2% 40% 7.4% 3.2% 3.4% 10.7% 4.8% 35.7% 42.6% 4.9% 4% 12.8% 6.9% PoderData 24–26 Apr 3,000 36% 41% 6% 4% 5% 7% 5% BTG/FSB 22–24 Apr 2,000 32% 41% 9% 3% 5% 9% 9% XP/Ipespe 18–20 Apr 1,000 31% 45% 8% 3% 4% 10% 14% Exame/Ideia 15–20 Apr 1,500 33% 42% 10% 3% 5% 7% 9% 14 Apr Brazil Union announces the candidacy of congressman Luciano Bivar. 13 Apr Workers' Party national committee formally approves Geraldo Alckmin as Lula's running mate. PoderData 10–12 Apr 3,000 35% 40% 5% 3% 6% 11% 5% XP/Ipespe 2–5 Apr 1,000 30% 44% 9% 3% 3% 12% 14% Paraná Pesquisas 31 Mar – 5 Apr 2,020 35.3% 41.5% 5.8% 3.1% 1.2% 13.1% 6.2% Quaest/Genial 1–3 Apr 2,000 31% 45% 6% 2% 4% 12% 14%

Jan–Mar Publisher/Pollster PollingperiodSamplesize Bolsonaro Lula Moro Gomes Doria Others Blank/Null/Undec. Lead Instituto GERP 31 Mar – 5 Apr 2,095 35% 37% 6% 5% 1% 2% 7% 2% 31 Mar Former Minister Moro leaves Podemos and joins Brazil Union, suspending his candidacy. PoderData 27–29 Mar 3,000 32% 41% 6% 7% 3% 4% 7% 9% Modalmais/Futura 21–25 Mar 2,000 35.5% 38.5% 5.3% 5.1% 1.3% 4.8% 9.4% 3% rowspan=4 Datafolha 22–23 Mar 2,556 26% 43% 8% 6% 2% 5% 8% 17% 26% 43% 8% 7% 6% 10% 17% 26% 44% 8% 7% 2% 5% 8% 18% 26% 43% 8% 8% 5% 9% 17% XP/Ipespe 21–23 Mar 1,000 26% 44% 9% 7% 2% 4% 9% 18% Exame/Ideia 18–23 Mar 1,500 29% 40% 9% 9% 1% 5% 6% 11% FSB 18–20 Mar 2,000 29% 43% 8% 9% 2% 5% 5% 14% PoderData 13–15 Mar 3,000 30% 40% 7% 7% 2% 6% 8% 10% rowspan=3 Quaest/Genial 10–13 Mar 2,000 26% 44% 7% 7% 2% 3% 13% 18% 25% 45% 6% 7% 2% 4% 10% 20% 28% 48% 8% 3% 12% 20% Ranking Brasil 7–12 Mar 3,000 32.4% 39% 7.2% 6.5% 2.4% 10.5% 6.6% Instituto GERP 7–10 Mar 2,095 31% 38% 7% 5% 2% 1% 8% 7% 9 Mar Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD) announces he will not run for president. XP/Ipespe 7–9 Mar 1,000 28% 43% 8% 8% 3% 3% 9% 15% Paraná Pesquisas 3–8 Mar 2,020 30.9% 38.9% 7.4% 6.8% 2.2% 2.5% 11.2% 8% PoderData 27 Feb – 1 Mar 3,000 32% 40% 6% 7% 2% 6% 8% 8% Ipespe 21–23 Feb 1,000 26% 43% 8% 7% 3% 4% 9% 17% Exame/Ideia 18–22 Feb 1,500 27% 42% 10% 8% 3% 3.7% 6% 15% CNT/MDA 16–19 Feb 2,002 28% 42.2% 6.4% 6.7% 1.8% 2.7% 12.2% 14.2% Modalmais/Futura 14–17 Feb 2,000 34.7% 35% 7.5% 5.8% 1.8% 4.5% 10.5% 0.3% PoderData 13–15 Feb 3,000 31% 40% 9% 4% 3% 4% 8% 9% XP/Ipespe 7–9 Feb 1,000 25% 43% 8% 8% 3% 2% 12% 18% Quaest/Genial 3–6 Feb 2,000 23% 45% 7% 7% 2% 3% 13% 22% Paraná Pesquisas 27 Jan – 1 Feb 2,020 29.1% 40.1% 10.1% 5.6% 2.4% 2.4% 10.3% 11% PoderData 31 Jan – 1 Feb 3,000 30% 41% 7% 7% 2% 5% 8% 11% XP/Ipespe 24–25 Jan 1,000 24% 44% 8% 8% 2% 3% 12% 20% Modalmais/Futura 17–21 Jan 2,000 33.2% 39.5% 8.4% 7.5% 3.2% 8.2% 6.3% PoderData 16–18 Jan 3,000 28% 42% 8% 3% 2% 4% 12% 14% Exame/Ideia 9–13 Jan 1,500 24% 41% 11% 7% 4% 1% 11% 17% XP/Ipespe 10–12 Jan 1,000 24% 44% 9% 7% 2% 3% 13% 20% Quaest/Genial 6–9 Jan 2,000 23% 45% 9% 5% 3% 1% 12% 22%

2021