A regional election was held in the Region of Murcia on 28 May 2023 to elect the 11th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Overview Electoral system The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.

Election date The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on 23 May 2023.

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.

The election to the Regional Assembly of Murcia was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (BORM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 14 June.

Parliamentary composition The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the time of dissolution.

+ Parliamentary composition in April 2023 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 17 17 People's Parliamentary Group PP 16 16 Citizens Parliamentary Group INDEP 4 4 Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 1 4 INDEP 3 Mixed Group CS 2 4 Podemos 1 Verdes Equo 1

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PSOE José Vélez Social democracy 32.5% PP Fernando López Miras ConservatismChristian democracy 32.4% CS María José Ros Liberalism 12.0% Vox José Ángel Antelo Right-wing populismUltranationalismNational conservatism 9.5% Podemos–IU–AV María Marín Left-wing populismDirect democracyDemocratic socialism 7.6% MR–VE Helena Vidal Green politicsDirect democracyAlter-globalization colspan="2"

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2023 regional election 28 May 2023 63.2 25.6 42.8 1.5 17.7 3.0 0.4 4.7 1.3 17.2 NC Report/La Razón 22 May 2023?? 28.8 39.1 – 16.0 3.7 – 5.8 – 10.3 KeyData/Público 18 May 2023? 64.4 29.0 39.4 2.7 15.1 – – 7.4 – 10.4 EM-Analytics/El Plural 11–17 May 2023 600? 29.2 38.8 2.9 16.4 2.0 1.8 6.2 2.0 9.6 CEMOP 8–17 May 2023 1,200 62.8 29.6 40.9 2.5 15.5 3.1 – 4.6 – 11.3 UCAM 3–12 May 2023 800? 28.9 38.9 1.7 15.6 3.6 – 5.6 – 10.0 EM-Analytics/El Plural 4–10 May 2023 600? 29.0 39.3 2.9 16.2 1.9 1.8 6.2 2.0 10.3 EM-Analytics/El Plural 26 Apr–3 May 2023 600? 29.1 39.3 2.9 16.2 1.9 1.9 6.2 2.0 10.2 Actuatech/PSOE 19–28 Apr 2023 800 63.9 31.2 32.2 2.7 16.8 – – 7.2 – 1.0 GAD3/ABC 26–27 Apr 2023 1,000? 28.3 39.3 – 15.8 3.3 – 6.4 – 11.0 CIS 10–26 Apr 2023 631? 30.5 36.2 2.1 16.8 – – 9.8 – 5.7 EM-Analytics/El Plural 19–25 Apr 2023 600? 29.1 39.4 2.8 16.1 2.0 1.9 6.2 1.8 10.3 EM-Analytics/El Plural 12–18 Apr 2023 600? 29.3 39.5 2.7 16.6 2.0 2.0 6.2 – 10.2 EM-Analytics/El Plural 5–11 Apr 2023 600? 29.1 39.3 2.7 17.2 2.0 2.0 6.1 – 10.2 Simple Lógica/elDiario.es 3–11 Apr 2023 450? 27.7 32.2 5.0 16.1 – – 11.4 3.2 4.5 SocioMétrica/El Español 3–7 Apr 2023 1,200? 29.3 41.4 2.5 14.3 – – 6.2 – 12.1 EM-Analytics/El Plural 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 600? 29.3 38.6 3.0 17.3 2.0 2.1 6.1 – 9.3 NC Report/La Razón 24–31 Mar 2023? 64.3 29.5 42.9 2.8 12.4 – – 7.6 – 13.4 CEMOP 20–31 Mar 2023 1,200 66.2 29.2 40.9 2.1 15.5 – – 6.2 – 11.7 Actuatech/PSOE 2 Feb–3 Mar 2023 1,200 64.0 30.8 32.6 2.9 14.5 – – 6.1 – 1.8 CEMOP 23–31 Jan 2023 820 64.7 29.7 40.7 2.5 14.3 – – 6.4 – 11.0 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 2–10 Jan 2023 779? 29.3 41.4 2.5 15.3 – – 6.2 – 12.1 InvyMark 12–18 Dec 2022 1,100? 28.6 37.6 2.1 20.1 – – 5.6 – 9.0 CIS 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 329? 32.9 41.4 0.6 10.2 – – 8.1 0.3 8.5 CEMOP 3–17 Oct 2022 820 63.5 29.3 39.6 2.4 15.2 – – 5.6 – 10.3 InvyMark 27 Jun–6 Jul 2022 1,500? 29.9 33.5 2.1 24.3 – – 5.5 – 3.6 CEMOP 31 May–8 Jun 2022 820 68.0 28.8 38.1 3.2 18.5 – – 4.5 – 9.3 UCAM 4–21 Apr 2022 800 59.1 28.6 38.6 3.3 16.2 – – 6.3 – 10.0 CEMOP 15 Feb–2 Mar 2022 820 64.0 30.3 36.6 2.2 16.2 – – 6.5 – 6.3 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 31 Oct 2021?? 29.5 42.8 2.7 12.9 1.5 1.5 5.6 – 13.3 CEMOP 18–28 Oct 2021 827 64.0 29.5 39.4 4.7 13.5 – – 7.1 – 9.9 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 15 Jun 2021 850? 32.3 41.9 2.4 13.0 1.7 1.7 4.9 – 9.6 UCAM 10–17 May 2021 800 59.2 27.1 39.7 3.4 15.6 – 0.7 4.6 3.1 12.6 CEMOP 4–14 May 2021 820 63.3 27.6 43.7 3.4 13.7 – – 5.3 – 16.1 Murcia Electoral 16–17 Mar 2021 675? 31.3 30.9 5.7 16.4 5.5 2.2 2.4 – – 2.1 0.4 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 14 Mar 2021 850? 33.3 40.1 2.8 12.4 4.4 1.7 1.8 0.4 – – 6.8 SyM Consulting 12–13 Mar 2021 1,076 61.7 27.9 36.5 3.0 22.2 2.8 2.4 1.7 1.4 – – 8.6 Sigma Dos/La Verdad 10–12 Mar 2021 1,100? 29.1 35.8 6.7 18.2 5.0 – – – – – 6.7 UCAM 9–23 Dec 2020 809 59.2 30.5 34.1 7.6 13.4 – – 6.9 – 3.6 CEMOP 14–22 Dec 2020 824 64.4 27.6 38.7 7.2 15.6 – – 5.1 – 11.1 SyM Consulting 16–18 Oct 2020 1,131 61.3 29.1 34.1 3.4 20.3 3.7 2.6 2.7 1.6 – – 5.0 CEMOP 2–15 Oct 2020 825 64.9 27.3 39.3 6.8 15.7 – – 4.9 – 12.0 Murcia Electoral 29 Jul–5 Aug 2020 1,841? 31.4 33.9 9.6 10.9 5.1 2.3 2.2 0.4 – 1.9 2.5 Murcia Electoral 2–9 Jun 2020 1,721? 29.6 34.1 9.2 11.8 5.7 2.2 2.5 0.3 – 2.2 4.5 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 1 Apr–15 May 2020?? 33.6 38.5 6.5 11.4 4.3 1.7 1.7 0.9 – – 4.9 CEMOP 20–29 Apr 2020 804 64.2 31.0 38.8 7.9 11.8 – – 5.5 – 7.8 SyM Consulting 30–31 Mar 2020 1,089 60.6 30.6 33.8 8.7 14.8 3.4 2.6 2.3 1.5 – – 3.2 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 6–8 Dec 2019?? 26.0 25.4 7.8 24.3 6.6 2.9 2.8 1.7 – 1.0 0.6 November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 68.0 24.8 26.5 7.4 28.0 – 0.3 8.9 1.9 1.5 Sigma Dos/La Verdad 9–10 Jul 2019 600? 35.4 31.2 9.6 11.9 5.3 – – – – – 4.2 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 62.3 32.5 32.4 12.0 9.5 5.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 – – 0.1

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2023 regional election 28 May 2023 16.3 27.2 1.0 11.3 3.0 34.3 10.9 Actuatech/PSOE 19–28 Apr 2023 800 13.1 26.8 0.5 10.9 4.0 28.5 9.5 13.7 CIS 10–26 Apr 2023 631 21.4 26.0 1.0 13.1 6.9 24.2 3.2 4.6 CEMOP 20–31 Mar 2023 1,200 17.1 29.6 1.7 13.1 3.9 17.1 8.0 12.5 Actuatech/PSOE 2 Feb–3 Mar 2023 1,200 14.4 27.2 0.7 9.3 2.3 31.1 10.0 12.8 CEMOP 23–31 Jan 2023 820 14.9 27.6 1.7 12.1 3.8 25.7 5.9 12.7 CIS 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 329 21.2 27.9 0.3 7.1 4.8 30.4 4.2 6.7 CEMOP 3–17 Oct 2022 820 13.8 27.3 1.5 13.8 3.7 19.3 8.3 13.5 CEMOP 31 May–8 Jun 2022 820 17.7 25.5 3.4 16.8 3.0 13.4 9.4 7.8 CEMOP 15 Feb–2 Mar 2022 820 16.7 20.5 0.9 9.5 5.0 26.2 15.1 3.8 CEMOP 18–28 Oct 2021 827 16.2 24.8 2.7 11.7 5.1 17.6 8.5 8.6 CEMOP 4–14 May 2021 820 14.3 30.5 1.8 11.3 4.0 19.8 9.4 16.2 CEMOP 14–22 Dec 2020 824 15.4 25.1 5.1 13.2 4.5 20.8 8.6 9.7 CEMOP 2–15 Oct 2020 825 15.0 23.8 3.8 12.4 3.6 19.6 11.0 8.8 CEMOP 20–29 Apr 2020 804 14.8 24.6 3.1 7.6 4.4 29.8 11.9 9.8 November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 17.2 18.4 5.2 19.4 6.1 30.0 1.0 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 20.6 20.6 7.6 6.0 3.5 1.3 – 35.9 0.0

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CEMOP 20–31 Mar 2023 1,200 19.8 33.4 2.2 13.3 3.7 6.0 21.7 13.6 CEMOP 23–31 Jan 2023 820 18.8 32.3 2.0 12.9 3.0 7.0 24.0 13.5

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CEMOP 20–31 Mar 2023 1,200 10.4 64.4 0.4 5.7 0.3 0.1 18.7 54.0 CEMOP 23–31 Jan 2023 820 10.2 62.1 0.4 6.1 0.7 1.0 19.2 51.9

Results