2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Republican businessman Bernie Moreno defeated Democratic three-term incumbent Sherrod Brown. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024. This was the first U.S. Senate race in Ohio where the incumbent was defeated since 2006, when Brown defeated Mike DeWine.

This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections (the other being Montana). This was the most expensive U.S. Senate election of 2024, with a record-breaking $483.4 million spent in total. Brown's reelection was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.

Moreno won 8 counties that Brown won in 2018, all of them located in northern Ohio: Ashtabula, Erie, Lake, Mahoning, Ottawa, Portage, Trumbull, and Wood. His campaign was aided by Republican nominee Donald Trump's 11.21% margin of victory in Ohio, helping secure an outright majority for Senate Republicans for the first time since 2021, with a net gain of four seats in the 2024 elections. Although Brown outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election by 7.59 percentage points, it was not enough to win. Brown received about 120,000 more votes than Harris, while Moreno received about 320,000 fewer votes than Trump. Libertarian candidate Don Kissick received around 195,000 votes, approximately 3% of the vote. This was the first time since 1954 that a Republican defeated an incumbent Democrat senator in Ohio. Along with Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania and Jon Tester in Montana, Brown was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024. Notably, all three were first elected in 2006, defeating Republican incumbents, and won re-election in 2012 and 2018. To date, this is Brown's second general election loss of his political career, having previously lost re-election in 1990 as Ohio's Secretary of State to Robert Taft. Brown would later run for the Senate again in 2026.

Moreno's swearing in on January 3, 2025 gave Republicans control of both of Ohio's U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 2007. As Ohio's other U.S. senator, JD Vance, was elected vice president of the United States, Moreno became Ohio's senior senator upon Vance's resignation.

Background After voting for Barack Obama in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, Ohio has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a red state. Republicans hold all statewide offices in addition to the majority in both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans also have a majority of the state's US House delegation.

Donald Trump won Ohio in 2016 and again in 2020 by 8 points both times.

Republican JD Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in 2022 for Ohio’s other U.S. Senate seat by slightly over 6 points.

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating Senator Mike DeWine (who was subsequently elected governor), and won re-election in 2012 and 2018. If he had been reelected he would have been only the second Ohioan to be elected to the United States Senate by popular vote four times, the other being John Glenn. Abortion was a key issue of the election. Brown held a pro-choice stance, while Moreno held a pro life stance and won the support of Ohio Right to Life. Brown raised the issue frequently. Because of this, the topic of abortion made the news. Initially, the seat was viewed by many to be a likely Democratic win, with some early polls showing Brown ahead, but Moreno attained a lead in the summer which grew through the duration of the campaign.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–2025)

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handSherrod Brown (D)$27,838,244$14,594,991$14,614,497Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error SherrodBrown ShontelBrown TimRyan UndecidedOhio Northern UniversityOctober 16–19, 2023256 (LV)± 8.3%58%6%15%21%Ohio Northern UniversityJuly 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%59%7%17%17%

Results

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Bernie Moreno, former car dealership owner, father-in-law of U.S. representative Max Miller, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022

Eliminated in primary Matt Dolan, state senator from the 24th district (2017–2024) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022 Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)

Failed to qualify Doug Stuart, retired businessman

Declined Warren Davidson, U.S. representative for (2016–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Moreno) Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist and sports car racing driver (endorsed Moreno) Josh Mandel, former Ohio State Treasurer (2011–2019), nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate in 2018 and 2022 (endorsed Moreno)https://x.com/JDVance/status/1745165553231167744 Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive (ran unsuccessfully for president, endorsed Moreno)

Debates Date Host Moderator Link CandidatesKey: Participant  Absent  Non-invitee  Invitee Withdrawn Matt Dolan Frank LaRose Bernie Moreno 1 January 22, 2024 FOX 8 Colleen MarshallJoe TooheyFOX 8 2 February 19, 2024 Spectrum News Mike KallmeyerSpectrum News 3 March 6, 2024 WLWT Sheree Paolello YouTube

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handMatt Dolan (R)$11,425,814$9,089,493$2,383,077Bernie Moreno (R)$9,735,460$7,338,751$2,396,709Frank LaRose (R)$2,217,016$1,625,972$591,043Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattDolan FrankLaRose BernieMoreno Other UndecidedEmerson CollegeMarch 17–18, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%40%16%44%–Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityMarch 13–15, 2024818 (RV)± 3.4%31%19%29%–21%East Carolina UniversityMarch 8–11, 2024<1,298 (LV)± 4.6%39%27%34%–SurveyUSAMarch 6–11, 2024533 (LV)± 3.3%18%16%22%–44%Emerson CollegeMarch 7–10, 2024443 (LV)± 2.6%26%16%23%3%32%SurveyUSAFebruary 27 – March 3, 2024568 (LV)± 4.6%27%21%29%–23%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)February 25–26, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%19%21%31%–27%Emerson CollegeJanuary 23–25, 20241844 (RV)± 2.3%15%21%22%–42%McLaughlin & Associates (R)December 12–14, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%16%18%22%–44%SurveyUSADecember 8–12, 2023573 (LV)± 4.6%18%33%12%1%35%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)December 3–5, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%18%19%23%–40%co/efficient (R)November 18–20, 2023950 (LV)± 3.18%13%14%15%–58%Emerson College/WJW-TVNovember 10–13, 2023468 (LV)± 4.5%15%18%10%32%25%Data for Progress (D)October 31 – November 2, 2023294 (LV)± 6.0%20%30%7%0%43%Ohio Northern UniversityOctober 16–19, 2023269 (LV)± 8.2%13%30%7%2%49%Ohio Northern UniversityJuly 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%18%32%7%1%43%Suffolk/USA TodayJuly 9–12, 2023190 (RV)–14%19%9%–57%East Carolina UniversityJune 21–24, 2023405 (RV)± 4.0%14%17%7%4%58%Causeway Solutions (R)May 19–27, 2023526 (RV)± 2.5%11%24%6%17%42%

Results

Libertarian Party Nominee Don Kissick, auto worker and nominee for in 2018

Write-in candidates Declared Stephen Faris, electrical engineer David Allen Pastorius Nathan Russell Tariq Shabazz (Green Party), U.S. Navy veteran and perennial candidate

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportSeptember 25, 2024Inside ElectionsSeptember 26, 2024Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 4, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill September 27, 2024Elections DailyNovember 4, 2024CNalysisNovember 4, 2024 RealClearPolitics September 28, 2024 Split Ticket October 23, 2024 538 October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handSherrod Brown (D)$91,399,138$88,358,633$4,411,749Bernie Moreno (R)$24,237,971$21,447,672$2,636,429Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated SherrodBrown (D) BernieMoreno (R) UndecidedMarginFiveThirtyEightthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202447.1%47.8%5.1%Moreno +0.7%RealClearPoliticsOctober 23 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202446.3%48.0%5.7%Moreno +1.7%270toWinOctober 10 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202447.3%47.0%5.7%Brown +0.3%TheHill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202446.8%48.9%4.3%Moreno +2.1%Average46.9%47.9%5.2%Moreno +1.0% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error SherrodBrown (D) BernieMoreno (R) Other UndecidedAtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 20241,022 (LV)± 3.0%46%49%3%3%The Trafalgar Group (R)November 2–4, 20241,095 (LV)± 2.9%48%48%2%2%Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 2, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%45%48%–6%48%52%––Morning ConsultOctober 23 – November 1, 20241,254 (LV)± 3.0%46%47%–7%Miami UniversityOctober 28–30, 2024857 (RV)± 5.0%48%46%3%2%The Trafalgar Group (R)October 25–28, 20241,127 (LV)± 2.9%48%47%2%3%ActiVoteOctober 14–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%49%51%––J.L. Partners (R)October 22–24, 2024997 (LV)± 3.1%46%52%3%–University of AkronSeptember 12 – October 24, 20241,241 (RV)± 2.8%46%44%–10%OnMessage Inc. (R)October 19–22, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%49%3%3%Bowling Green State University/YouGovOctober 10–21, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.6%47%45%1%7%ActiVoteSeptember 23 – October 20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%48%52%––Morning ConsultOctober 6–15, 2024490 (LV)± 3.0%46%47%1%6%The Washington PostOctober 3–7, 20241,002 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%1%3%1,002 (RV)48%47%1%4%Marist CollegeOctober 3–7, 20241,327 (LV)± 3.2%50%48%–2%1,511 (RV)± 3.0%49%48%1%2%Bowling Green State University/YouGovSeptember 18–27, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.6%49%45%–6%New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 21–26, 2024687 (LV)± 4.2%47%43%–10%687 (RV)± 4.1%46%41%–13%ActiVoteAugust 16 – September 22, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%49%51%––RMG ResearchSeptember 18–20, 2024781 (LV)± 3.5%46%48%5%–Morning ConsultSeptember 9–18, 20241,488 (LV)± 3.0%46%44%–10%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 20241,558 (LV)± 3.0%46%43%–11%SoCal Strategies (R)August 31 – September 1, 2024600 (LV)–50%45%–5%Rasmussen Reports (R)August 13–17, 20241,267 (LV)–47%42%–11%ActiVoteJuly 20 – August 12, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52.5%47.5%––Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)July 23–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%42%1%11%Remington Research Group (R)June 29 – July 1, 2024611 (LV)± 4.0%50%44%–7%Marist CollegeJune 3–6, 20241,137 (RV)± 3.6% 50%45%1%4%National Public AffairsMay 28–29, 2024801 (LV)± 3.5% 54%46%–– March 19, 2024 Primary elections heldMainstreet Research/FAUMarch 13–15, 2024818 (RV)± 3.4% 47%36%–17%East Carolina UniversityMarch 8–11, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.2% 45%41%3%12%SurveyUSAMarch 6–11, 2024533 (LV)± 3.3% 43%37%–20%Emerson CollegeMarch 7–10, 20241,300 (RV)± 2.6% 39%34%6%21%Emerson CollegeJanuary 23–25, 20241844 (RV)± 2.3% 39%37%5%18%Emerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV)± 3.0% 42%32%–26%Data for Progress (D)October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV)± 4.0% 47%44%–9%Ohio Northern UniversityOctober 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%48%26%1%25%Emerson CollegeOctober 1–3, 2023438 (RV)± 4.5%35%33%–32%Ohio Northern UniversityJuly 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%45%28%0%27%Suffolk UniversityJuly 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%48%41%–10%East Carolina UniversityJune 21–24, 2023805 (RV)± 4.0%46%42%2%11%

Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan