The 2019 Brandenburg state election was held on 1 September 2019 to elect the members of the 7th Landtag of Brandenburg. It took place on the same day as the 2019 Saxony state election. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Left, led by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke.

The SPD, Left, and opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered substantial losses. The SPD remained the largest party with 26% of votes, followed by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which doubled its result to 23.5% and moved into second place. The CDU fell to third with 16%. The Greens improved to 11%, though they underperformed compared to prior opinion polling. The Left also recorded a result below expectations, falling from third to fifth place with 11%. The Brandenburg Free Voters (BVB/FW) narrowly passed the 5% electoral threshold and won five seats, up from three (as they received a "direct mandate", they would have goten their seats even with lower than 5%).

The incumbent government lost its majority. All parties ruled out cooperation with the AfD, and two possible coalitions were considered: a "Kenya coalition" of the SPD, CDU, and Greens which would hold 50 seats, and a "red-red-green" coalition of the SPD, Greens, and Left, which would hold 45 (a one-seat majority). On 16 November, both the SPD and CDU voted in favour of a Kenya coalition, followed by the Greens on 18 November. Woidke was re-elected Minister-President by the Landtag on 20 November.

Background Since German reunification, the SPD has been the strongest party in Brandenburg on a state level, and has held the office of Minister-President continuously.

The SPD and Left formed a coalition government after the 2009 state election, which was renewed after the 2014 state election. In the 2019 European Parliament election in Germany, AfD was the strongest party in Brandenburg on 19.9%, ahead of the CDU (18.0%) and SPD (17.2%).

Electoral system In principle, the Landtag consists of 88 members. 44 are elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies (direct mandates), and the remainder are filled by party-list proportional representation. The seats are distributed according to the largest remainder method (Hare-Niemeyer method). Only parties whose share of second votes exceeds the 5% electoral threshold or which have won a direct mandate (the "basic mandate clause") are allocated seats. Overhang and leveling seats can expand the Landtag to a maximum size of 110 seats. This is detailed in the Brandenburg State Electoral Act.Brandenburgisches Landeswahlgesetz Fassung: 28. Januar 2004, Änderung: 11. Februar 2014

According to the state constitution and the state election law, the election date must be a Sunday or a public holiday, at the earliest 57 months and at the latest 60 months after the beginning of the election period. In 2019, the date was set for 1 September 2019.

The minimum voting age is 16 years.

Parties The table below lists parties represented in the 6th Landtag of Brandenburg. Name Ideology Leader(s) 2014 result Votes (%) Seats SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Dietmar Woidke 31.9% CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christian democracy Ingo Senftleben 23.0% Linke The Left Democratic socialism Kathrin Dannenberg 18.6% AfD Alternative for Germany German nationalismRight-wing populism Andreas Kalbitz 12.2% Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Ursula Nonnemacher 6.2% BVB/FW Brandenburg United Civic Movements/Free Voters Regionalism Péter Vida 2.7%

Opinion polls

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize SPD CDU Linke AfD Grüne FDP BVB/FW Others Lead 2019 state election 1 Sep 2019 – 26.2 15.6 10.7 23.5 10.8 4.1 5.0 4.1 2.7 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Aug 2019 1,653 22 16.5 14 21 14.5 5 4 3 1 Civey 31 Jul–28 Aug 2019 2,460 20.3 17.9 15.5 20.3 14.8 4.9 – 6.3 Tie INSA 19–26 Aug 2019 1,019 21 17 15 21 14 5 5 2 Tie Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–22 Aug 2019 1,112 21 18 14 20 14 5 4 4 1 Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2019 1,002 22 18 15 22 12 5 4 2 Tie Civey 16 Jul–13 Aug 2019 2,981 18.2 17.1 14.7 21.0 17.2 5.5 – 6.3 3.2 Forsa 25 Jul–5 Aug 2019 1,009 17 18 14 21 16 5 4 5 3 Civey 19 Jun–17 Jul 2019 2,895 17.2 16.3 16.9 21.3 15.1 5.2 – 8.0 4.1 INSA 24 Jun–1 Jul 2019 1,001 19 18 16 19 16 6 3 3 Tie Civey 15 May–12 Jun 2019 3,007 21.4 16.3 19.5 19.6 12.0 4.3 – 6.9 1.8 Infratest dimap 3–6 Jun 2019 1,000 18 17 14 21 17 5 4 4 3 INSA 13–28 May 2019 1,011 19 20 18 20 12 5 3 3 Tie 2019 European election 26 May 2019 – 17.2 18.0 12.3 19.9 12.3 4.4 2.2 13.7 1.9 Civey 19 Mar–16 Apr 2019 1,380 23.0 19.9 16.8 20.9 9.2 4.4 – 5.8 2.1 Infratest dimap 2–6 Apr 2019 1,000 22 20 16 19 12 5 – 6 2 Civey End Jan–22 Feb 2019 5,955 21.8 22.1 20.0 18.8 7.0 4.4 – 5.9 0.3 INSA 28 Jan–4 Feb 2019 1,006 21 21 17 19 10 5 4 3 Tie Forsa 17–20 Dec 2018 1,005 20 19 17 20 12 5 – 7 Tie pmg 19 Nov–6 Dec 2018 1,006 23 21 18 21 10 3 – 4 2 Infratest dimap 12–17 Sep 2018 1,000 23 21 17 23 7 5 – 4 Tie INSA 10–17 Aug 2018 1,048 23 18 18 21 8 5 4 3 2 Infratest dimap 11–16 Apr 2018 1,000 23 23 17 22 7 4 – 4 Tie Infratest dimap 7–11 Nov 2017 1,005 23 22 17 20 6 7 – 5 1 Forsa 7–9 Nov 2017 1,002 25 22 18 18 6 5 – 6 3 2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 – 17.6 26.7 17.2 20.2 5.0 7.1 1.2 5.1 6.5 Infratest dimap 15–19 Jun 2017 1,000 28 25 18 15 6 3 – 5 3 Forsa 9–13 Jan 2017 1,003 30 21 15 18 7 4 – 5 9 Infratest dimap 24–28 Nov 2016 1,000 30 25 17 16 6 – – 6 5 Forsa 20–26 Sep 2016 1,001 30 17 17 20 6 4 – 6 10 Infratest dimap 19–23 May 2016 1,002 29 23 17 20 6 – – 5 6 Forsa 14–17 Mar 2016 1,003 31 19 16 19 7 3 – 5 12 Forsa 9–17 Dec 2015 1,002 36 21 18 11 6 – – 8 15 Infratest dimap 12–16 Nov 2015 1,000 33 23 19 13 6 – – 6 10 Forsa Sep 2015 1,002 35 24 20 7 7 – – 7 11 Infratest dimap 5–8 Feb 2015 1,000 34 25 19 10 5 – – 7 9 Forsa Dec 2014 1,001 34 22 19 8 8 – – 9 12 2014 state election 14 Sep 2014 – 31.9 23.0 18.6 12.2 6.2 1.5 2.7 5.5 8.9

Results By early afternoon, significantly more people had voted than at the same time in the 2014 election. According to the state election director, 31.3% of voters cast their ballots by 2:00 PM. At the time in 2014, the figure was only 22.4%.

{| class=wikitable style="text-align:left; font-size:95%" | colspan=9 align=center| |- ! colspan="2" | Party ! Votes ! % ! +/- ! Seats ! +/- ! Seats % |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | Social Democratic Party (SPD) | align=right| 331,238 | align=right| 26.2 | align=right| 5.7 | align=right| 25 | align=right| 5 | align=right| 28.4 |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | Alternative for Germany (AfD) | align=right| 297,484 | align=right| 23.5 | align=right| 11.3 | align=right| 23 | align=right| 12 | align=right| 26.1 |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | Christian Democratic Union (CDU) | align=right| 196,988 | align=right| 15.6 | align=right| 7.4 | align=right| 15 | align=right| 6 | align=right| 17.0 |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) | align=right| 136,364 | align=right| 10.8 | align=right| 4.6 | align=right| 10 | align=right| 4 | align=right| 11.4 |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | The Left (Linke) | align=right| 135,558 | align=right| 10.7 | align=right| 7.9 | align=right| 10 | align=right| 7 | align=right| 11.4 |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | Brandenburg United Civic Movements/Free Voters (BVB/FW) | align=right| 63,851 | align=right| 5.05 | align=right| 2.3 | align=right| 5 | align=right| 2 | align=right| 5.7 |- ! colspan=8| |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | Free Democratic Party (FDP) | align=right| 51,660 | align=right| 4.1 | align=right| 2.6 | align=right| 0 | align=right| ±0 | align=right| 0 |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | Human Environment Animal Protection Party | align=right| 32,959 | align=right| 2.6 | align=right| 2.6 | align=right| 0 | align=right| ±0 | align=right| 0 |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) | align=right| 8,712 | align=right| 0.7 | align=right| 0.8 | align=right| 0 | align=right| ±0 | align=right| 0 |- | bgcolor=| | align=left | Others | align=right| 10,292 | align=right| 0.8 | align=right| | align=right| 0 | align=right| ±0 | align=right| 0 |- ! align=right colspan=2| Total ! align=right| 1,265,106 ! align=right| 100.0 ! align=right| ! align=right| 88 ! align=right| ±0 ! align=right| |- ! align=right colspan=2| Voter turnout ! align=right| ! align=right| 61.3 ! align=right| 13.4 ! align=right| ! align=right| ! align=right|

Government formation The governing SPD and Die Linke both suffered losses, bringing an end to their coalition. Incumbent Minister-President Woidke (SPD) invited all parties except AfD to coalition negotiations as his party remained the largest bloc. The CDU expressed interest in joining a so-called "Kenya coalition" with SPD and Greens, which would have 50 seats, and reiterated their refusal to govern with AfD. Woidke confirmed he called CDU leader Senftleben on election day to begin discussions, but expressed reservations about the party's poor performance under pressure from the right. He also did not rule out the possibility of a red-red-green coalition with Die Linke and Greens, which would have a bare majority of 45 seats. Greens leader Nonnemacher expressed willingness to participate in either coalition, but made it clear her party would bring its own policy goals to the table and refuse to merely prop up the existing red-red coalition.

On November 16, both the CDU and SPD voted in favor of a "Kenya coalition." The Greens approved the coalition on the 18th; Woidke was duly voted in for his second term as Minister-President two days later by a count of 47 to 37 with 3 abstentions. The coalition commanded 50 seats.

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