The 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Rand Paul won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Charles Booker with 61.8% of the vote.
Paul was first elected in 2010 with 55.7% of the vote, filling the seat of retiring Jim Bunning, then re-elected in 2016 with 57.3% of the vote. Paul ran for a third term. Booker is a former state representative, and was a candidate in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in 2020. The election was called for Paul shortly after polls closed in the state.
This was the biggest landslide victory for a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky since Mitch McConnell's win in 2002.
Background Although Rand Paul supported a constitutional amendment limiting senators to two terms, he said, "I'm not in favor of term limits for some and not others. So I'm not in favor of people self-imposing term limits. I'm a co-sponsor of the constitutional amendment, but I will run again in 2022." Kentucky held its primary election on May 17.
Republican primary Candidates Nominee Rand Paul, incumbent U.S. senator
Eliminated in primary Arnold Blankenship, retiree Valerie Frederick Paul V. Hamilton, economics professor John Schiess, perennial candidate Tami Stanfield, former sales executive
Endorsements
Results
Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Charles Booker, former state representative (2019–2021) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020
Eliminated in primary Joshua Blanton Sr., Army veteran Ruth Gao, educator and activist John Merrill, chemist and Navy veteran
Declined Rocky Adkins, senior advisor to Governor Andy Beshear, former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives, and candidate for governor in 2019 Jim Gray, Kentucky Secretary of Transportation, former mayor of Lexington, KY, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016 and candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018
Endorsements
Results
General election Although Paul had initially pledged to serve only one term, he later reversed this stance and ran for re-election. In both 2010 and 2016, he faced tight races, even as these years were generally unfavorable for the Democratic Party and Kentucky's conservative partisan lean. Paul had gained a reputation as one of the most libertarian senators and often breaks with his party despite still holding conservative views on most issues.
Following a narrow primary defeat to Amy McGrath in the 2020 Kentucky Senate Democratic primaries, State Representative Charles Booker announced his intention to run again, this time against Paul. Booker positioned himself as a progressive populist, advocating for abortion rights, Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, and a Green New Deal. He aimed to resonate with traditional Democratic voters in the urban centers of Louisville and Lexington, while also reaching out to ancestral Democrats in Kentucky's Appalachian region.
An early February poll showed Paul leading by only a few points against a generic Democrat. However, a later poll revealed Paul had a substantial lead over Booker. In October, a debate was scheduled to include both Paul and Booker, but Paul did not respond to the invitation, resulting in Booker debating alone.
Paul went on to easily win re-election, improving his 2016 performance by approximately 9 percentage points. However, due to lower voter turnout, he underperformed compared to Trump's 2020 performance in the state by 2 points and received a slightly smaller percentage of the vote.
Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 19, 2021 Inside Elections January 7, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2021 PoliticoOctober 18, 2022RCPJanuary 10, 2022Fox News May 12, 2022DDHQJuly 20, 2022538June 30, 2022The Economist September 7, 2022
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RandPaul (R) CharlesBooker (D) UndecidedMason-DixonMason-DixonJanuary 19–22, 2022625 (RV)± 4.0%55%39%6%
Rand Paul vs. generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RandPaul (R) GenericDemocrat UndecidedMason-DixonMason-DixonFebruary 1–4, 2021625 (RV)± 4.0%47%41%12%
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Elliott (largest city: Sandy Hook) Marion (largest city: Lebanon) Nicholas (largest city: Carlisle) Rowan (largest city: Morehead)
By congressional district Paul won five of six congressional districts. District Paul Booker Representative 71% 29%James Comer 68% 32%Brett Guthrie40%60%John Yarmuth (117th Congress)Morgan McGarvey (118th Congress) 66% 34%Thomas Massie 75% 25%Hal Rogers 54% 46%Andy Barr
See also 2022 United States Senate elections 2022 Kentucky elections
Notes
References
External links Official campaign websites Charles Booker (D) for Senate Rand Paul (R) for Senate